Abstract Stabilize investment and add code. In the past few days, many provinces have intensively disclosed their investment plans for 2019. On January 29, Hebei Province proposed to implement 400 provincial key projects in 2019, with a total investment of 1,952.36 billion yuan. On the previous day, Chongqing proposed a 2019 plan...

Stable investment and additional code. In the past few days, many provinces have intensively disclosed their investment plans for 2019. On January 29, Hebei Province proposed to implement 400 provincial key projects in 2019, with a total investment of 1,952.36 billion yuan. On the previous day, Chongqing Municipality proposed 885 major projects planned for 2019, with a total investment of 2,072.9 billion yuan; Guangdong Province proposed 1,155 key projects in 2019, with a total investment of 5.82 trillion yuan.

The reporter was informed that infrastructure investment is still an important point of investment, but this round of infrastructure investment avoids “big flood irrigation” and emphasizes precision. Traditional infrastructure such as transportation and water conservancy is trying to provoke the girders on the shorting boards, while the “new infrastructure” such as 5G, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet is full of vitality, which has become the highlight of the 2019 infrastructure investment.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, infrastructure investment increased by 3.8% in 2018, down 15.2 percentage points from the previous year. Ning Jizhen, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that infrastructure in 2019 is still an important area for shortcomings. Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that in 2019, new infrastructure construction will be strengthened, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and Internet of Things will be promoted to accelerate the pace of 5G commercialization; urban and rural infrastructure construction will be strengthened, and municipal and logistics infrastructure will be promoted to accelerate We must fight poverty and build rural infrastructure; strengthen the construction of major infrastructure such as energy, transportation and water conservancy.

Liu Jinshan, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Jinan University, said in an interview with the Economic Information Daily that the role of infrastructure investment in economic development is unquestionable. In the short run, it is an important means of countering economic winds. Expanding domestic demand through investment has a direct effect. In the long run, infrastructure is the forerunner of economic development and has a long-term positive effect on future development. This is also a key link in the supply-side structural reform.

“In the past year, the leading factor in the decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment was the sharp decline in the growth rate of infrastructure investment. The Central Economic Work Conference has already released positive signals to increase infrastructure investment. The growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2019 is expected to appear faster. Growth trend.” Wang Yanwu, an associate professor at the Macroeconomic Research Center of Xiamen University, told the Economic Information Daily.

"Overall, China's infrastructure investment is still very inadequate." Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that on the one hand, from the perspective of stable macroeconomic growth, it is necessary to supplement infrastructure investment short-board; on the other hand, from the local From the perspective of the government, we must also consider risks, solvency and actual needs, and strive for progress in a steady manner. We must not rush to make repeated constructions and "one size fits all".

It is worth noting that this round of infrastructure investment is significantly different from the past. Traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy, and water conservancy is making up for shortcomings. The new infrastructure has become an important force for steady growth and innovation. “Different from traditional infrastructure projects, new infrastructure construction is a supply-side structural reform in the investment field,” said Wang Yanwu.

Many local governments have already deployed. As proposed by Beijing, 2019 will accelerate the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G and Industrial Internet; Sichuan also proposed to strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and Internet of Things, and accelerate the pace of 5G commercialization; Shaanxi has proposed to grasp 600 provincial-level Key project construction, strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, Internet of Things, smart city, etc. Guangdong clearly stated in the draft project investment plan, investing 1 billion yuan to carry out 5G network construction in Guangzhou and Shenzhen dense urban areas, and build base stations The scale is over 2,700.

“The focus of steady growth during the year is still to complement the infrastructure. In view of the continued decline in the marginal returns of traditional infrastructure investment in the Tiegi base, new infrastructure such as 5G, industrial interconnection and Internet of Things has gradually become a new growth point for infrastructure investment.” Morgan Stanley Zhang Jun, chief economist of Lihua Xin Securities, told the Economic Information Daily.

Song Ruili, senior economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, told reporters that compared with traditional infrastructure, the new infrastructure technology content is high, in line with the current industrial structure transformation and upgrading direction, which can stabilize short-term investment demand and improve long-term economic potential. Growth level.

“5G, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things and other emerging industries are driving consumer demand by increasing new supply methods, which will have a significant impact on GDP in the foreseeable future,” said Zhang Xia, chief strategist at China Merchants Securities.

Taking 5G as an example, according to the forecast of China Information and Communication Research Institute, according to the official commercialization of 5G in 2020, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2025, China's 5G development will directly drive the total economic output of 10.6 trillion yuan, directly creating an economic added value of 33,000. 100 million yuan. China Merchants Securities expects that the construction of 5G base stations of the three major operators will be between 100,000 and 150,000 stations in 2019.

Zhang Xia believes that for the construction of new infrastructure, the government will encourage and support a series of policies such as fiscal and taxation policies, financial policies, industrial policies, and capital market policies. With the expansion of the government's special debt scale, the focus will be on manufacturing technology transformation and equipment renewal in related fields such as 5G, industrial Internet, artificial intelligence, and Internet of Things.

“Traditional infrastructure is focused on complementing the shortcomings, especially in improving people's livelihood. Traditional infrastructure is indispensable; and new infrastructure represents the future direction of industrial transformation and upgrading, which will help increase employment and income, as well as new kinetic energy. Sustainable economic development in the future. Traditional infrastructure investment and new infrastructure investment must be well balanced.” Xu Hongcai said.

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