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In 11 provinces and municipalities, a total of 20 trillion yuan of construction planning local version of the trillion investment is intensifying. On September 24th, Sichuan Province announced plans for a major investment project of up to 3.67 trillion yuan. So far, according to the statistics of public information, the reporter of China Business News found that in the past three months, local governments of 11 provinces and cities nationwide introduced it. The total investment plan has reached 20 trillion yuan. The local government’s “steady growth†is urgent. But in fact, local finance is now generally tight, and it is not realistic to expect the central government to launch the "4 trillion" financial support again in 2008. So where is the trillions of investment, where does the money come from? Many local governments have turned their eyes on private capital. However, the reporter learned that, in terms of the general will of private capital, although the government has shown good results and adopted “non-forbidden access†to private capital, in the economic downturn, most private capital is not willing to take too much investment risk. More willing to be steady in the industry. If the enthusiasm of the private capital is not high, will this new investment feast initiated by the local governments finally become a "painting cake to fill the hunger"? Investment “Contest†On September 24th, Sichuan Province announced the “Significant Investment Directoryâ€. The “Significant Investment Directory of Sichuan†obtained by this reporter shows that Sichuan plans to start and continue construction projects from 2012 to 2013. The total investment of the project is 3.67 trillion yuan, covering infrastructure, major industries, people's livelihood projects and social undertakings, ecological construction, environmental protection and other fields. All projects invite private capital to participate. In addition, in the planned investment of Sichuan Province, infrastructure construction is still the main event – ​​the total number of projects is 639, with a total investment of 1.49 trillion yuan. Among them, the investment of 28.6 billion yuan in Chengdu Second Ring Expressway, the 3.6 billion yuan in the second phase of the Shengzhong Reservoir Irrigation District, the 6.6 billion yuan in Tianfu Renshou Avenue, and the 22.9 billion yuan in the Xicheng Railway (Sichuan Section) are all these foundations. An integral part of the facility investment. In addition to investment in infrastructure, Sichuan Province has also announced projects in major industries, people's livelihood and social undertakings, and eco-environmental protection, including strategic emerging industries and energy. “Only the economic stimulus scale of a province has reached the level of '4 trillion' in 2008!†For the investment plan announced by Sichuan Province, professional investor Fang Lin issued such feelings. In fact, Sichuan is by no means a case of a trillion-dollar investment. In August, Guizhou Province, which belongs to the western region, issued the “Guizhou Eco-Cultural Tourism Industry Development Planâ€, which will build a strong tourism province by investing hundreds of projects in 10 years, with a total investment of about 3 trillion yuan. According to the statistics of the public news, our reporter found that since July this year, 11 provinces and cities such as Sichuan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Hubei, and Fujian have announced investment plans. From the data clearly published by these 11 cities, the total investment It has already reached 20 trillion yuan. “This shows how to stimulate economic growth – the traditional thinking of the Chinese economy is still driven by the investment of large projects.†Guo Zhengmo, director of the Economic Research Institute of the Sichuan Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with this reporter that the current economic growth rate The downward pressure is not diminished. How to maintain the "steady growth" of the economy? In this regard, the local government has made the same "killer" - the trillion investment plan. Since the third quarter of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission has intensively approved 5 trillion investment projects. From the perspective of central decision-making, many large projects have been relaxed, and local governments just want to take advantage of this opportunity to win more projects. For Sichuan's 3.67 trillion yuan investment, Sichuan Province also gave the same reason. Relative to the economic slowdown in the eastern developed regions, the high economic growth rate in the central and western regions is still mainly due to high investment. According to data released by the National Development and Reform Commission on September 24, from January to August this year, fixed assets investment in the central and western regions increased by 25.3% and 23.8% respectively, and the growth rate was higher than the national level. The financial prescription for the steady growth of the "prescription" has already been opened, so how much actual financial support can local governments give? "Now the financial pressures in various places are very high. From the perspective of financing ability, high local debt has limited large-scale investment by local governments." Chen Guo, a macroeconomic analyst at the Development Research Center of Guangfa Securities , said in an interview with this reporter that Guizhou The province’s 3 trillion yuan investment plan to analyze, the local government’s ambitious large-scale investment plan may not be realistic. Chen Guo told reporters a set of data: In 2011, the total fiscal revenue of Guizhou Province is estimated to be 236.17 billion yuan, the average growth rate in the next five years is about 45%, and the average annual growth rate of fiscal expenditure is 25%. Assume that Guizhou's 3 trillion yuan investment project is the largest in the first two years, and the previous two years were 750 billion yuan (otherwise, the effect on the economic pull is limited), and the next three years will invest another 500 billion yuan. Chen Guo said that without considering the local initial debt of Guizhou and the initial investment period of 2012, and giving Guizhou 50% of the fiscal expenditure, the 3 trillion yuan stimulus plan will be given two years ago. Guizhou has added 1 trillion yuan in debt, which requires financing to make up for the fiscal deficit. The GDP of Guizhou Province in 2011 totaled 570 billion yuan, and debt accounted for nearly 1.8 times of the annual GDP! The above calculation method is still applicable to Sichuan's 3.67 trillion investment. In view of the financial pressures that large-scale investment may bring, Guo Zhengmo, director of the Economic Research Institute of the Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences, expressed the same concern. “Like the pre-printed menu of the restaurant, Sichuan Province has just announced such an investment plan, but if all the 'vegetables' are really finished in 2013, I am afraid it is not realistic.†Guo Zhengmo believes that now trillions The actual investment is largely not supported by downstream consumer demand, which will also lead to more serious overcapacity problems in industries such as steel and cement. Guo Zhengmo said that due to the huge local financial pressure, the investment of 3.67 trillion yuan announced in Sichuan this time has been "very good" if it can complete 1/2 or even 1/3 of the scale on time. On September 13, at the China-Arab Economic and Trade Forum held in Yinchuan, Jia Kang, director of the Financial Science Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance, said that under the current economic pressure, the “steady growth†measures introduced in various places in the short term will require locality. Financing plays a role, and local hidden liabilities will inevitably rise. Although local governments are currently unlikely to become “small Greeceâ€, the problem of high local debts cannot be taken lightly. At present, China has accumulated a total of 10.7 trillion yuan of local debt, while China’s GDP growth rate was 7.8% in the first half of the year, so the debt stock should also control the growth rate below 7%, so that the risk of local debt problems will not expand. . "The central attitude is that there is no adjustment for the annual deficit of 800 billion yuan." Jia Kang believes that the NDRC has recently intensively approved investment projects in several places, but the central government will no longer provide financial support to the localities. This requires local The government has found financing means to accelerate the construction of investment projects. Locking up the “4 trillion†fiscal stimulus policy issued by the private capital in November 2008, mainly led by the central government, the central government bears 1.18 trillion yuan, and the other 3 trillion yuan mainly relies on bank financing. Today, the local version of "4 trillion" has come one after another. But the problem at hand is that, in the current situation of extremely tight local finances, where is the massive investment of trillions, where does the money come from? So local governments have turned their eyes to private capital. "We adhere to the principle of 'non-forbidden access'. The announced investment projects welcome and encourage the entry of private capital. The government will also provide services and guidance for private capital investment." Tang Limin, director of the Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, said that he hopes private investment will participate in transportation. Transportation, water conservancy, electric power, oil and gas, telecommunications, land remediation and mineral resources exploration and development, social welfare, and culture, tourism and other fields. On September 26th, Shaanxi Province held the “Public Enterprise Advancement Development Conferenceâ€, with more than 600 private enterprises represented by Chairman of Vantone Holdings, Chairman of Beijing Shaanxi Enterprise Chamber of Commerce Feng Lun and Chairman of New Hope Group Liu Yonghao. It has signed 646 projects with various urban areas in Shaanxi Province, with a total investment of 560.4 billion yuan. For the initiative of the local government, Zhang Xiaohua (a pseudonym), the head of the Shaanxi-based enterprise, has a deep feeling. He said that the most important thing for enterprises is still the return. At present, the economic environment is not good, and most private capitals are hoping to be stable in the industry. Therefore, many projects promoted by local governments will not enter even if they have financial strength. On the other hand, although the country has announced the “new 36†rules for encouraging private capital to enter in many industries this year, the “details are not fine†have become a common problem. Private capital needs to enter the monopoly of finance, energy, telecommunications, railways, etc. The field is still extremely difficult. "Compared with state-owned enterprises, there is no relevant business experience and resources, and political and business relations are difficult to maintain." Zhang Xiaohua said that now private enterprises are most eager to improve the laws, regulations and policies of private capital, so that private enterprises can enjoy the same national treatment. A fair competitive environment avoids the result that private coal mines in Shanxi are eventually “incorporated by state ownershipâ€. “Private capital does have the willingness and strength to invest.†China’s private economic research association adviser, Yu Yuxi, said that there are currently 70 million private enterprises in China with a registered capital of 28 trillion yuan. According to statistics, the wealth that Chinese people can invest in is 60 trillion yuan, and the investment capital of more than 6 million yuan can be more than 27 trillion yuan. However, Bao Yu believes that if the enthusiasm of private capital is not high, the feast of the trillions of investment planned by the local government will eventually be difficult to implement effectively. Therefore, if local governments want to attract private capital, they must break the concerns of private capital and guide private capital into a truly profitable industry.