"In August, the entire steel market has been in a state of collapse, because any steel company, including Baosteel, will inevitably lose money at this steel price." On September 1, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as China Steel Association) reputation President Wu Xiyu told the reporter at the "2012 China Steel Technology Economic High-end Forum" hosted by the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute. According to the domestic steel comprehensive price index compiled by China Steel Association, the price index has started to decline since the end of April 2012 at the price index of 121.19, and has fallen to 103.28 points on August 24, and the hot rolled coil price index is 97 points. When it was first launched, it was 100 points, which is equivalent to overnight, and the price of steel fell back to the origin of 18 years ago. “The steel price in August is really a collapse price. It can be said that the steel market is disastrous. The current steel price has dropped by 1,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year. How can steel enterprises reduce their costs and reduce 1,000 yuan per ton? The cost?” Wu Xiyu shook his head at the current steel market. Xu Kuangdi, chairman of the China Institute of Metals, also told reporters that since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, similar situations have occurred only in 1995 and 1996. At that time, the main reason was that the investment was overheated, and at that time there was only about 100 million tons of steel production capacity, so it was quickly adjusted. It is. "But this time, I am really not optimistic, the production capacity is too large, and I don't see any hope for improvement at present." Wu Xizhen believes that the current difficulties in the steel industry are related to the "4 trillion yuan" expansion investment plan implemented in 2008, "overcapacity Can not rely on steel enterprises, there is no 4 trillion investment which has such high production capacity?" Under the "4 trillion yuan" stimulus policy, domestic steel production increased while greatly increasing iron ore imports, directly stimulating iron The rise in ore prices has made the three major mines profitable. In the foreign steel industry crisis, a large number of steel and steel billets flooded into China, hitting the Chinese steel market, causing the steel industry to increase production without stimulation. Wu Xiyu said, "Severe overcapacity and excessive iron ore prices are the root causes of the current steel industry's difficulties." Although the current steel market price is already in a state of collapse, steel companies continue to produce inertia, and there is no substantial reduction in production. Initiative. “Our small converters are still in production. Everyone is counting on other steel mills to cut production, but they are producing, because the more they are produced later, the lower the price of iron ore, the lower the cost.” A steel company executive in Anyang, Henan Tell the reporter. At present, it is unrealistic for the steel industry to export excess capacity, and the domestic process of digesting excess capacity will be a long and painful one. “The steel industry will not be greatly improved in at least three years.” Xu Zhongbo, professor of metallurgy, Beijing University of Science and Technology Said to reporters. Steel enterprises have to borrow money to invest in the bank to enter the quagmire of a ton of steel profits of 1.68 yuan to expand production; steel association vice president bluntly "sell a ton of steel profits of 1.68 yuan", 17 steel enterprises lost nearly 1 billion yuan However, while still borrowing and investing heavily, the bank’s bad debts are “snowballing”. The profit per ton of steel is only 1.68 yuan, and the listed steel enterprises that have been reported in the middle of the report have a total loss of nearly 1 billion, and the accounts receivable has doubled, 80 billion. Yuan inventory pressure top, cash account blood loss of 4.6 billion yuan... Yangcheng Evening News reporter found that the huge loss of steel enterprises while borrowing from the bank, while investing heavily. Some people speculate that the bank is dragging the risk of the steel industry backwards through “blood transfusion”, making the current non-performing loan ratio seem reassuring, which raises concerns about whether the bank will be dragged into the quagmire? 17 steel companies lost nearly 1 billion. The same flush data shows that 17 of the 35 listed companies in the steel industry have issued interim reports, of which 4 losses, 11 net profit is positive but year-on-year decline, only Jiuli special materials ( 002318) and *ST Guangzhou Steel (600894) two profit growth. In summary, 17 companies lost a total of 920 million yuan in the first half of the year, compared with a profit of 5.06 billion yuan in the same period last year. Even so, the net profit may still have water, because 17 companies have received accounts receivable of 16 billion yuan in the same period. More than doubled. At the same time, the total inventory increased from 7.15 billion yuan to 7.98 billion yuan, showing that the inventory digestive pressure is still growing. The data shows that the industries with the lowest gross profit margins in this year's China Daily are shipping, shipping, equipment, services and steel, of which the gross profit margin of the steel industry dropped from 7% last year to 4.88%. Wang Xiaoqi, vice president of China Steel Association, even more bluntly said last week: “The profit of selling one ton of steel in the steel industry is now 1.68 yuan.” Monita analyst Tang Xiaodong said that the August survey found that most steel companies believe that steel prices are already “ Cost support "state; some traders even believe that prices are still under pressure - this means that 17 steel companies nearly 8 billion yuan in inventory may consume more depreciation reserves. The huge losses also have to borrow money to invest. However, it is surprising that huge losses have not caused large-scale production cuts. Steel enterprises have collectively fallen into the "prisoner's dilemma". It seems that they all want to rely on "peer-cutting production and increasing production" to gain market share. As a result, the dilemma has evolved into a crisis, and capacity has not been reduced. In this regard, Qilu Securities analyst Yan Hui believes that there are institutional reasons: steel production capacity is a public enterprise and non-public enterprises "two points of the world", state-owned enterprises will not easily withdraw from the market even if losses, especially this year, local government on output value, taxation The demands are even greater, often directly intervening in the production and operation of enterprises. "This is a year of bad money driving out good money." Do not reduce production, but also increase investment. According to the cash flow statement, 17 steel companies invested a net outflow of 11.89 billion yuan in cash, of which 10 billion yuan was used to “purchase and build fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets”, an increase of 22.35% over the same period last year. Only the net inflows of operating cash from six steel companies can cover the net outflow of investment, “making money by yourself”, and 10 of the remaining 11 companies either consume book cash or raise funds for investment.

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