Methanol: pushing up difficulty is not small

In October, short positions in the methanol market took the upper hand and the transaction focus shifted downwards. The price fell to the lowest point in the year. The "Jinjiuyinshi" market failed to meet the deadline and the domestic methanol market was also under pressure. The author believes that under the influence of multiple negative factors, the market confidence in the last two months of the year is difficult to establish effectively, and methanol will continue to be weak in the latter part of the year.

Although the inventory of methanol in eastern China declined in October, the inventory in South China is rising, and the overall inventory of the port is still hovering around 1 million tons. According to the market situation, the current methanol inventory is slowly depleting, but there are still domestic goods and imported goods to Hong Kong to supplement the consumption. From this point of view, the overall demand for methanol is relatively slow, resulting in continuous high inventory levels, and methanol is subject to certain constraints.

It is understood that the supply of methanol in the last two months of the year will basically be in a normal state. Iran's ZPC and Malaysia's two sets of equipment are operating stably, and the external supply of methanol is more abundant. At the same time, the spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia has narrowed, and the re-export arbitrage space has gradually narrowed, and the amount of re-exports has also decreased. Therefore, the supply of methanol in the port was relatively sufficient in the fourth quarter, and the inventory consumption rate remained relatively sluggish. The data shows that at present, the stock of methanol at the port is 1.02 million tons, and the previous 700,000 tons or more are rare, generally about 550,000 tons. Therefore, under the high inventory, the focus of methanol prices is difficult to significantly increase.

Demand is still in the doldrums

The current weak demand in many places has become the root cause of the continuing downturn in methanol. The traditional downstream formaldehyde will enter the off-season in the near future. The notice of the suspension of enterprises and production restriction in key controlled areas in Hebei Province during the APEC meeting has a more serious impact on the formaldehyde market in Hebei. However, some formaldehyde plants in Shandong Province look at less activity and procurement.

At the same time, after two months of warehouse operation in the northwestern region, methanol prices can maintain firm. After the Baofeng olefin plant was put into operation, the supply of methanol to Ning Coal was reduced. However, the second phase of Ningmei MTP restarted early next month. Overall, the consumption of methanol by olefin companies in the Northwest China will increase.

In addition, in terms of Yangtong Hengtong and Xingxing New Energy in the first quarter of next year, a small amount of methanol extraction in the fourth quarter of this year can also boost market confidence to some extent. However, the author believes that the production of a few coal chemical companies during the year will bring about certain benefits for methanol, but it is difficult to push up the methanol market when the port inventory is high and the consumption is limited. Yesterday methanol ** main 1501 contract opened higher, once under 2500 yuan / ton integer mark after the Masukura rebound, and finally closed at 2,526 yuan / ton. From a technical point of view, the price may continue to be weak and it is recommended that we continue to wait and see.