Plastic Early Commentary: Crude Oil Boosted Stronger with Plastic Shock

Trend Review On August 7th, the overall domestic market was strong. Chemicals and non-ferrous metals opened sharply. The stock index also fluctuate, and even the main 1301 contract opened higher at 9875 yuan. The intraday volatility was strong, and the market was lightened up and finally closed. 9955 yuan, compared with the previous settlement price rose 110 yuan, the day to lighten up 14342 hand to 205,000 hand, volume 530,000 hands.

In the late afternoon, the external market turbulence dominated. Market sentiment eased somewhat. European and US stocks oscillated higher, the US dollar index remained volatile, and the metal market collectively went higher. The US crude oil once again surged. The New York Stock Exchange September crude oil rose 1.47 US dollars to 93.67 a barrel. The US dollar rose 1.6%, the highest since May 15. The ICE Brent crude ** contract recently rose 2.41 US dollars to 111.97 US dollars a barrel, or 2.2%.

Fundamental analysis of economic data, according to the Fed report, the US consumer credit growth in June hit the lowest level in eight months. The growth rate in June was lower than economists expected because Americans cut back on the scale of revolving credit including debt. In addition, the market expects that the Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank will take further stimulus measures. Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that the Fed should launch a large-scale bond purchase plan to boost the economy until the unemployment rate begins to decline again. Rosengren is a non-voting member of the Fed's Policy Committee. In terms of crude oil supply, due to the maintenance work, the supply of crude oil in the North Sea continued to be tight. In addition, the pipeline explosion that occurred on Monday also disrupted the delivery of crude oil from Iraq to a key port in Turkey. The API announced on Tuesday that crude oil inventories in the United States have fallen by a significant 5.4 million barrels in the latest week, compared to a reduction of 300,000 barrels.

On the fundamentals, Asian ethylene closed steadily on August 6th, with CFR Northeast Asia at 1134-1136 USD/t and CFR Southeast Asia at 1124-1126 USD/t. At the beginning of the month, domestic and foreign petrochemical manufacturers had a stable price, and the average price remained between 10,000 and 10250 yuan. At the beginning of the month, the supply and demand side of the market did not change much. Although some manufacturers stopped and overhauled, they had little impact on the overall supply of goods.

Overall Analysis The recent market focus is focused on the strength of the European Central Bank and the Fed's economic situation. The Fed's short-term launch of QE3 is expected to fail, but its job market has improved to boost the market. The market's recent optimism is filled with crude oil. The short-term crude oil price has exceeded $90 and the recent concussion Strong, but the top of the space is limited, its relatively high level of support for the cost of chemical class is obvious, and even the plastic fundamentals are lackluster, there is no sign of improvement in downstream demand, its trend will still play a follower role, the radicals to operate in the range of 9500-10000, The cautious people wait and see.