The change in the export structure of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry as a prelude to the general trend of the industrial structure, and the expected increase in the general cost reduction will cause the inherent inevitability of Shanghai Aluminum's phased downside and the relatively minor and occasional bullishness of Shanghai Aluminum. The contradiction between the delays in this phased trend under the influence of factors has increased the risk of Shanghai Aluminum facing sharp declines. The large increase in aluminum exports has blocked (but not blocked) the normal phase shift in market confidence. The market for a week has largely reflected the change in market confidence, but the newly announced aluminum production and export data have slowed this process. On the 21st, the National Bureau of Statistics released data that in October, China's alumina production was 1,234,700 tons, an increase of 59.5%; primary aluminum production was 850,000 tons, an increase of 33.06%; aluminum production was 79.48, an increase of 44%; In October, the growth rate of domestic alumina and aluminum production exceeded the output of primary aluminum respectively. Raw material costs and sales prospects of domestic primary aluminum enterprises were relatively optimistic. In particular, the large increase in exports of aluminum products has given the market confidence in the demand outlook for aluminum. The question is whether the emergence of this new source of confidence can block the phased downward phase of Shanghai Aluminum? To understand this issue requires a thorough analysis of this situation and the main reasons for the phased downturn. In fact, before the country adjusted its export tax rate for aluminum in October, domestic exports of aluminum and other processed products have gradually increased. From the perspective of the number of exporting companies, in the first quarter of this year, a total of 71 companies exported aluminum ingots nationwide, a decrease of 30 over the same period of last year, a decrease of 29.7%; and a total of 2,261 export enterprises of aluminum, an increase of 532, a rise of 30.8 %. This shows that the large increase in aluminum exports in October is normal, coupled with the impact of the national tax policy adjustment in October, this data is slightly higher than the previous data. However, the other side of the policy impact is also obvious. From China's relatively new preliminary statistics, China's primary aluminum and aluminum alloy exports showed a sharp decline in October. In October, the export volume of primary aluminum and aluminum alloys in China was 72,420 tons, a sharp drop from the 109,000 tons in September, and the average monthly export volume in the first nine months of this year was 107,000 tons. The average monthly export volume of aluminum alloys is 32,000 tons. In October, China exported a total of 40,000 tons of primary aluminum, which set a new low this year. Considering the whole situation, these two situations reflect that under the long-term, coherent and clear policy orientation of the country, China's electrolytic aluminum industry is rapidly adjusting its export structure and further adjusting its domestic industrial structure. It is precisely this early adjustment of the export structure that will periodically increase the supply of domestic primary aluminum, which coincides with the general decline in production costs in time. This is the main reason for the periodic downturn, and the transfer of funds to the enthusiasm only reduces the downside. Space and time. The sharp contraction in transactions and positions reflects the weakness of the early stage of market adjustments. From mid-October to now, statistics show that both the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, aluminum trading volume and open interest have significantly contracted, combined with the slowdown in the trend and the stability of the fluctuations, can be found in the dominant When factors are bound to cause a phased downturn, the emergence of other bullish factors that are secondary factors in this phase delays the down time and space. At the same time, the incidental bullion factor of copper, which is considered as a barometer of the basic metals market, is also one of the reasons for the current development of Shanghai Aluminum, and it has a large weight. The main bullish factor was the US McMillan Freeport Copper and Gold Company announced on the 19th that it spent US$25.9 billion to acquire Phelps Dodge Company in cash and stocks. The combined new company will become the world’s larger listed company. The copper company will also be the larger metal and mining company in North America. This news boosted market confidence and made the London Metals Market not even reflect the news of a record 228,000 tons surplus in the global copper market in the first 9 months announced by the Global Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday. Obviously, the influence of sporadic factors is also short-lived. Aluminium oxide prices again, abnormal release of production releases or inventories will be the more likely cause of Shanghai Aluminum's plunge. In my opinion, the current Shanghai aluminum market is in a dangerous "quiet period"! This kind of judgment is partly due to the fact that the phased downside is unavoidable due to the general trend of the industry. On the other hand, the related minor or occasional bullish factors delay the end of the downward adjustment. The accumulation of contradictions has exacerbated the risk of a sharp drop. In the future, the more likely trigger factor is expected to be the release of alumina production capacity or the possibility of further price reduction of alumina caused by the advancement of capacity building, and the other is the London Stock Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange delivery inventory A large increase, in addition to these two factors, policy or other contingent factors may also be incentives.
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