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I. The lack of reality and the lack of theory I am afraid that the new Keynesians who control the power of the policy did not think that the global economy has slowly entered the ideal of a smooth recovery after experiencing the financial crisis and the post-crisis era. Lane. The monetarists did not expect that the global economy did not show a significant inflation after experiencing the unprecedented "helicopter big money" in economic history. Moreover, in the past year or so, developed economies have begun to show a clear trend of inflation-free recovery. The traditional Phillips curve is experiencing great challenges in reality. The Taylor equation and inflation targeting system pursued by the central bank also urgently need to make parameter calibration and even Equation reconstruction.
Due to the lack of appropriate theoretical tools, people have been unable to make a persuasive explanation for more and more realistic visions, and the economic world has become obscured. For example, the unprecedented asset bubble, the long-term attachment of toxic assets, the constant passivation of the debt cycle, the structural distortion of the pricing logic, the fast-moving Merrill Lynch clock, etc., all of which are beyond the scope of mainstream economics. Thus, economists such as Krugman have criticized macroeconomics on different occasions and have been overly obsessed with tool technology, but face enormous poverty in the supply of deep thoughts facing the real world.
Indeed, the economic theory that guides monetary policy authorities and investors, in addition to the increasingly sophisticated and complex tools, has stagnated in terms of ideological evolution, and has not had a convincing doctrine of reality for decades. And genre. In the face of modern people who admire rationality, there will be confusion, anxiety, and even panic unconsciously for the status quo without theoretical explanation and the future without theoretical guidance. Therefore, the current macroeconomic research has not yet emerged from the shadow of the post-crisis era. In the face of ever-expanding debt and bubbles, what people can do seems to be waiting for the liquidation of the next financial crisis.
Second, experience learning, crisis redemption and mysterious "new cycle"
The global economy is sailing in unknown waters, and no one can tell exactly what will happen next. What is happening in the financial market: the sudden burst of the big market, the falling US dollar index, the junk bonds of the stars, the negative interest rate of the twisted time, etc., are difficult to understand and analyze with past experience. . Experience learning will allow policy authorities to circumvent problems that have occurred and are happening in the past, but the perturbation of human intervention – whether it is quantitative easing at the currency end or the deficit infrastructure at the financial end – is in solving known problems and crises. At the same time, they unknowingly drove the danger into the unknown "waters."
For example, Bernanke, who has been studying the Holy Grail of Macroeconomics in the past, the Great Depression in 1929, certainly will not let the economy fall in the same place. In the event of a subprime mortgage crisis, the decisive start of the price will not even come. The quantitative easing policy that Keynes himself could not imagine was to control the financial crisis before it lost control, and gradually took care of the economy into a slow recovery path.
This is because, in the past century, the mechanism of the Great Depression has been basically studied, and the prescriptions and measures for rescue have been greatly improved and improved. The biggest improvement is the demolition of the Bretton Woods system. The base money supply of central banks has become a “dislocated wild horseâ€, and it is possible to use “helicopter money†to inject liquidity into the financial market that is in the midst of collapse. The consequence of this is that the central bank’s balance sheet has ballooned and a large number of financial institutions that should have gone bankrupt in their long-term “survival with disease†have never happened in the past. People have never seen such a large-scale abuse of government credit.
Even so, I am afraid no one believes that the monetary policy of quantitative easing alone will lead the economy of all countries out of the predicament and enter a long road of recovery. Today, according to statistics, the growth of the US economy has continued for 33 quarters, ranking the third recovery cycle in history, and if there is no accident, it will reach the second longest in US history in the second half of next year. Growth time record.
The performance of Europe in the past year has also surprised economists. The predicted populist crisis, debt risk, and recession have not only arrived, but also the strongest and longest duration since the European debt crisis. recovery. Japan has also stepped out of deflation in its huge debts, and the pressure on the balance sheet has been significantly eased. There have even been rare expansions and leverages in the past two decades. Led by China's upstream industry to take the lead in warming up, the global economy is far from the multi-year capacity cycle or the Jugla cycle is likely to restart. The so-called "new cycle" is looming in the mysterious cloud of doubt.
Is the global Jugrah cycle really going to rise again? From the actual data observation, it is not impossible, because since the subprime mortgage crisis, fixed investment in major developed countries has been weak for nearly ten years, even if we do not consider expanding production for new capacity, simply depreciation and replacement of stock assets. In view, entrepreneurs should have the need to increase capital expenditures. In terms of the structure of the cycle, we believe that the marginal contribution of real estate investment to the new cycle is greater than that of manufacturing. The recent strong real estate investment data from the US and Germany are also illustrating this.
The example in China is also very obvious. The multiplier effect of real estate investment on upstream and downstream industries is very strong. However, what needs to be drawn to economists is that this new Jugrah cycle may become the shortest and weakest cycle in history, mainly because the aging of the population accelerates the topping of the debt cycle, the former suppresses effective demand, the latter Restrict the ability of enterprises to expand their credit.
All of this goes beyond the cognitive sphere of policy authorities and economists. After the global economy has been immersed in quantitative easing for nearly a decade, the next step should be how to go. Global policy makers and economists are collectively lost in confusion and confusion.
Third, the known "grey rhinoceros" is still unknown "black swan"?
Between subjective cognition and the external environment, one needs to establish a broad outline of risk and uncertainty. Through the combination of unknown and known two-two, a set of pan-risks beyond classical probability theory can be constructed, which mainly includes four categories: known unknowns, known known, unknown known and unknown unknowns.
The author of "Grey Rhinoceros" classifies the risk of "grey rhinoceros" as "known known" and "known unknown" and classifies the risk of "black swan" as "unknown unknown." In fact, this is to show that everyone knows that the big ship of the global economy has already entered the depths of the “Bermuda†that is at risk, but no one can make it clear and understandable about what will happen and when it will happen. Because the new features presented in at least three cycles have never been experienced for us.
The first is an unprecedented population ageing cycle. With the exception of a few countries, the demographic structure of major economies is almost rapidly aging. What is more serious is that some established developed countries not only have an aging population structure, but also have a decreasing population growth rate. In a country with a majority of the elderly population, it is of course difficult to have a vibrant economic vitality. No matter whether it is consumption or investment, there will be no room for growth and development prospects worth looking forward to. A large number of empirical studies have also found that the aging of the population is accompanied by low real interest rates and low economic growth. At the same time, the huge amount of pension and annuity market brought about by the aging of the population is also profoundly changing the investment style and allocation strategy of the entire financial market.
This is followed by an unprecedented super debt and currency cycle. After the subprime mortgage crisis, the debt cycle of the major economies showed two main characteristics. First, the bad debts that had to be cleared and written off were rescued by monetary policy, and attached to the rigid balance sheet of the central bank. Second, these toxic assets were used. In preparation for the issuance, the central bank continuously puts the base currency into the economy. So far, the Fed still holds a large number of toxic assets at the time of the subprime mortgage crisis. The sovereign debt of the five European countries and the commercial banks with a non-performing rate of 20% in several countries are safe and sound, mainly relying on a loose liquidity environment. The debt and currency cycle that lasts so long and is so huge is something we have never experienced before.
The third is an unprecedented low interest rate and low return on investment cycle. Since toxic assets cannot be fully written off, debt risks cannot be cleared in time, and the expanding central bank's balance sheet supplies too much base money, resulting in the accumulation of excess capacity in the financial industry. When the top of the debt cycle passivation is superimposed on the bottom of the weak economic cycle, there will be too many positions to pursue scarce yield opportunities, which will inevitably suppress the nominal interest rate and the return rate of large assets. This time, the low interest rate and low yield rate lasted for a long time, and investors and economists have never experienced it. If the low-yield of the underlying assets lasts for a long time, it is likely to lead investors to over-allot high-risk assets, or to lengthen leverage to make up the price. These will increase potential risk hazards and drive the global economy to the depths of Bermuda.
(The author of this article: Chief Economist of Qingdao Bank, Vice President of Shandong Huihui Financial Research Institute, Master Instructor of Shandong University, Academic Advisor of Wendao Think Tank, Young Scholar of China Financial Forty Forum)
Abstract We are in a new cycle node, and many unexplained economic visions reflect the lack of classical theory and mainstream cognition. The monetary authorities have learned from the past crises, but in order to solve the known problems, they have driven the risks into the unknown "waters & rdq...
We are in a new cycle of nodes, and many unexplained economic visions reflect the lack of classic theory and mainstream cognition. The monetary authorities learned from the past crises, but in order to solve the known problems, they risked the unknown “watersâ€. The global economy has slowly moved to the depths of Bermuda because of the aging population, the super debt and currency cycle, the ultra-low real interest rate and the return on investment.