[Chinalco.cn] China's bauxite types are mainly mono-water type, with high alumina content, but low aluminum-silicon ratio and high processing cost. With the decline of domestic ore grades, Chinese alumina plants may seek more aluminum. Source of earth ore imports. 1. The domestic bauxite resources are limited and the global supply is abundant China has about 860 million tons of bauxite reserves, accounting for 2.95% of the world's bauxite reserves. Bauxite is highly dependent on foreign countries. According to the aluminum melt network survey data, China's alumina production in 2016 was 60 million tons, with a total supply of 63 million tons (including imports of 3 million tons). According to the calculation of 1.95 tons of bauxite required for the production of 1 ton of alumina, the demand for bauxite in 2016 was calculated. For 117 million tons, the import volume of bauxite is 50 million tons, and the foreign dependence (import volume/demand) is about 43%. Before 2014, the bauxite seaborne trade was mainly concentrated in Indonesia and Australia. Since the implementation of the export ban in January 2014, the import pattern has undergone great changes and the channels have become diversified. At the same time, Chinese aluminum manufacturers have purchased exploration abroad in recent years. Mining rights, and the construction of alumina refineries equipped with integrated power plants and terminals. China's bauxite types are mainly mono-water type, with high alumina content, but low aluminum-silicon ratio and high processing costs. With the decline of domestic ore grades, Chinese alumina plants may seek more sources of bauxite imports. The proportion of alumina produced by China using imported ore is expected to increase to 60% by 2030. On the whole, although China's bauxite has a high dependence on foreign ore, there is no shortage from a global perspective. According to the study data of aluminum melt network, the supply and demand of bauxite in the world in 2016 is generally balanced, and the global bauxite in 2017. Mineral supply is abundant and there will be no supply gap. However, from the domestic point of view, aluminum resources are scarce, and profitability will be stronger for companies with bauxite resources. 2, tight supply of alumina, prices or maintain strong In the past five years, China's alumina production capacity is in the expansion phase. According to research data of aluminum melt network, in 2010, China's alumina production capacity was 40.92 million tons, and the output was 31.19 million tons. By 2016, the production capacity was 74.45 million tons, and the output was 6000. Ten thousand tons, production capacity, and annual average compound growth rate were 10.5% and 11.5% respectively. The production areas are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou and other provinces, accounting for a total of 96% of the five provinces. China not only imports bauxite but also imports a small amount of alumina, mainly from Australia, India and other countries, of which Australia accounts for 58%. In recent years, the import volume is about 300-500 tons, and the import volume in 2016 is about 3 million tons, compared with 4.36 million tons in 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. At the beginning of 2016, China's total 10.7 million tons of alumina production capacity was shut down due to low prices. With the recovery of alumina prices, alumina companies gradually resumed production, restarting a total capacity of 7.6 million tons, and adding a total capacity of 4.6 million tons. Therefore, the net increase in production capacity is roughly 1.5 million tons. With the price of alumina rising from 2,000 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 3,000 yuan/ton, the operating rate also increased from 82% to 90%. The 2016 production increased 1.35 million tons from 2015, a slight increase of 2.3%. China's alumina imports fell by 1.36 million tons in 2016, and domestic production increased by 1.35 million tons. As a result, the overall supply remained unchanged at approximately 63 million tons. According to the data, the total alumina demand in 2016 was lower than 2015. The annual increase is about 2.58 million tons, which is about 64.02 million tons. The supply gap is 1.02 million tons. 2017 alumina supply: 1) The new production capacity is about 6.15 million tons, and these new production capacity will be put in about the second quarter, and short-term still can not meet the supply gap; 2) At present, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate have reached a historical high in the past 6 years. The space for increasing output by continuing to increase the operating rate has been very limited; 3) The shutdown production capacity has been re-produced to 7.6 million tons, and the space for future resumption of production is limited, coupled with environmental production restriction factors. For example, the recent “Beijing, Tianjin, and surrounding areas 2017 air pollution prevention and control work plan†consultation draft involves the reduction of Shandong The production capacity of alumina production enterprises in Henan, Henan and Shanxi provinces is 50%, which corresponds to more than 30% of domestic production capacity. If this is strictly followed, there will be a significant shortage of supply. Due to high environmental pressure, related production or new production capacity will face greater resistance. 4) In terms of imported alumina, due to the high domestic alumina prices, it is expected that the imported alumina volume will increase from 3 million tons in 2016 to 3.5 million tons. In terms of alumina demand, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to advance. It is expected that if the project is put into operation according to expectations, 2017 will have a total capacity of 3.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, corresponding to an increase in demand for 6 million tons of alumina. Taken together, Alcoa.com expects alumina supply to remain tight in 2017, with the gap being approximately before new production capacity is put in place.
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