Where is the steel market demand going in 2018?

Since 2017, thanks to the global economic recovery and the steady development of the domestic economy, the steel industry has maintained a good growth trend and promoted the rapid growth of steel demand. According to the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, the demand for steel in China in 2017 is 725 million tons, up 7.7% year-on-year. So where will the steel market demand in 2018 go?

1. The real estate industry is steadily getting cold

In 2017, the national real estate regulation and control policy was released in nearly 110 cities, and the number of regulatory policies issued was more than 250 times, and the intensity was constantly increased. From January to November, the growth rate of national real estate development investment and the growth rate of commercial housing sales area showed a slowing trend. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the national real estate development investment increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from January to October; the sales area of ​​commercial housing increased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3% from January to October. Percentage points. This year's property market growth rate has slowed down more slowly, which is mainly due to the support of destocking and sheds to change monetization. In 2017, the transformation of various shanty towns nationwide started 6.09 million sets, and the investment was 1.84 trillion yuan. As the small cycle of this round of property market recovery is coming to an end, a new round of adjustment and cooling periods will be ushered in the coming year.

In 2018, the property market will be based on “stable”. The market is too cold or overheated. The sharp rise or fall in house prices is not allowed by the policy. The establishment of a long-term mechanism is expected to make substantial progress next year. The growth rate of investment in the real estate industry will generally decline next year. The new construction and land transaction growth rate will not make the real estate development investment growth rate relatively stable next year. In 2018, 580,000 sets of shanty towns will be transformed. As the effectiveness of the shed reforms is slightly weakened, the gradual withdrawal of the destocking policy will accelerate the decline in transactions, and the real estate industry will stabilize and become colder next year.

2. Infrastructure investment growth slows down

Since 2017, national infrastructure investment has maintained a high growth rate. From January to November, the infrastructure investment was 1,276.20 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1%. The growth rate was 0.5 and 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the first ten months of last year and the same period of last year.

In 2017, highway and waterway investment maintained rapid growth. From January to November, road and waterway completed fixed assets investment of 2.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the road construction completed investment of 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.1% over the same period. The highways, ordinary provincial roads and rural roads completed investment of 825.3 billion yuan, 696.3 billion yuan and 4617 billion yuan respectively, up 13.7% and 20.4% respectively. 38.6%, the newly rebuilt rural road exceeded the target of 200,000 km for the whole year; the investment in water transport construction was 111.2 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, the investment in inland river construction was 50.4 billion yuan, up 5.2%, and the investment in coastal construction was 60.8 billion yuan. Decreased by 21.9%. In 2017, the highway waterway is expected to complete an investment of 2.27 trillion yuan, and the newly renovated rural road will be 285,000 kilometers. The total mileage of highways will reach 4.77 million kilometers, of which the expressway will reach 136,000 kilometers; the inland waterway will reach 127,000 kilometers.

In 2017, railway investment maintained steady growth. From January to November, the national railway fixed assets investment was 702.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. It is planned to complete the investment target of 800 billion yuan in 2017, and the railway business mileage will reach 125,000 kilometers, including nearly 24,000 high-speed rail. Kilometers.

With the strengthening of local government debt management, the sources of capital investment in infrastructure will be limited in 2018, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment may fall. In 2018, the scale of transportation fixed assets investment is expected to be basically the same as the previous year's target, and the total investment scale will remain at 2.4 trillion yuan, the newly-opened highway has a mileage of 5,000 kilometers, completed 16,000 kilometers of newly-built national trunk highways, implemented 180,000 kilometers of road safety life protection projects for roads and above, and 2,500 dangerous bridges. The newly renovated rural roads will be 200,000 kilometers, and 5,000 newly built villages will be built. Improve the navigation and breakwater conditions of the 10 port areas of coastal ports. The inland river high-grade waterway has a mileage of 600 kilometers. Promote the construction of 20 integrated passenger hubs and 30 freight hubs (logistics parks). At the same time, it is necessary to speed up the construction of railways and inter-city railways in the central and western regions, and promote the construction of Zhengwan High-speed Railway, Yinxi High-speed Railway and Hangwen Railway. In the future, the country will speed up railway construction, improve the road network, optimize water transport construction, and strengthen airport construction. In 2020, the total mileage of the comprehensive transportation network will reach 5.4 million kilometers.

3. The growth of the automotive industry is sluggish

In 2017, the growth rate of China's auto market continued to slow down. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2017, automobile production and sales showed a slight increase, and the growth rate slowed slightly from January to October. From January to November, automobile production and sales were 25.99 million and 25.845 million, respectively, up 3.9% and 3.6% year-on-year, down from 10.4 and 10.5 percentage points in the same period of last year. The cumulative growth rate of production and sales decreased by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from January to October, and continued to show a downward trend. Among them, from January to November, the production and sales of passenger cars were 22.222 million and 22.091 million respectively, up 2.2% and 1.9% respectively, which was lower than the overall 1.7 percentage points of the automobile. From January to November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.77 million and 3.754 million, respectively, up 15% and 14.8% year-on-year, higher than the overall 11.1 and 11.2 percentage points of the automobile. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 639,000 and 609,000 respectively, up 49.7% and 51.4% respectively. It is expected that the auto market will maintain a low growth rate in 2017, with annual sales of 29 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%.

With the cancellation of the purchase tax concessions, the auto market may face a continuing sluggish growth rate in 2018. From the current policy orientation, it is the general direction to achieve the 2020 fuel consumption standard and accelerate the promotion of new energy vehicles. The consumption stimulus policy is unlikely, and it is more likely to link policy support with energy conservation and new energy. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the domestic auto market will continue to grow slowly in 2018, with an expected growth rate of 3% and an overall demand of 29.87 million units. In 2018, the sales volume of passenger cars was 25.59 million, with a growth rate of 3%. Among them, the sales volume of cars was 11.77 million, down 1%; the sales of SUVs was 11.52 million, up 11%; the sales of MPVs was 1.79 million, down 11%; Micro-customer sales of 510,000 vehicles, down 7%. In 2018, the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.28 million, with a growth rate of 2%. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 470,000 units, down 8%; the sales volume of trucks was 3.81 million units, up 3%. In 2018, automobile exports will reach 1.06 million units, an increase of about 15% year-on-year. It is estimated that the number of imported cars will increase by 4% in the whole year of 2018, reaching 1.3 million.

4. The machinery industry is still booming

In the global infrastructure investment in 2017, China's infrastructure investment accounted for 31%, up to 5.3 trillion US dollars, while domestic engineering project investment reached 2.7 trillion US dollars. Thanks to the increase in infrastructure construction, the machinery industry can be described as booming. From January to November 2017, the sales volume of excavators was 126,298 units, a year-on-year increase of 99.2%. It is estimated that the annual sales volume will exceed 140,000 units; the sales volume of bulldozers will be 5,404 units, up 43.38% year-on-year. It is expected that the annual sales volume will exceed 5,800 units; the sales volume of loaders will be 89,332 units. The year-on-year growth was 44.43%, and the annual sales volume was expected to exceed 95,000 units; the flat machine sales volume was 4,115 units, an increase of 42.73% year-on-year, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 4,450 units.

In 2018, the machinery industry will continue to grow at a high level, mainly because infrastructure investment still maintains a large scale. At the same time, with the continuous promotion of the “Belt and Road Initiative”, the demand for construction machinery in the countries along the route has been accelerated, and China has been driven. The export of construction machinery products; the clearing of second-hand inventory equipment brought by environmental protection factors also promoted the upgrading of construction machinery. Therefore, China's machinery industry will still maintain a high growth rate next year.

5. The ship industry is moving towards high-end

In recent years, China's shipbuilding industry has developed rapidly. As of November 2017, China's shipbuilding industry has surpassed South Korea in new orders and has once again become the world's number one. In 2017, China's shipbuilding completion volume and new ship orders continued to grow, and the number of hand-held orders stopped falling. According to the statistics of China Shipbuilding Industry Association, from January to November 2017, the national shipbuilding completion was 39.88 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of 25.3. %. The new ship's orders were 25.38 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%. At the end of November, orders for ships were 81.67 million DWT, down 20.7% year-on-year, down 18% from the end of 2016. From January to November, the country's completed export vessels reached 37.09 million deadweight tons, up 26.5% year-on-year; orders for export vessels were 22.92 million deadweight tons, up 43.9% year-on-year; orders for export shipments at the end of November were 75.87 million deadweight tons, down 20.6% year-on-year. Export ships accounted for 93%, 90.3% and 92.9% of the nation's shipbuilding completions, new orders, and hand-held orders, respectively.

In November 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Three-Year Action Plan for Enhancing the Core Competitiveness of Manufacturing Industry (2018-2020)”, which clarified that the development of high-end vessels and marine engineering equipment is important for marine transportation, resource development and national defense construction. Guarantee. As the logistics industry continues to improve transportation efficiency requirements, the number of large vessels has gradually increased. First, the rapid development of LNG trade has led to rapid development of LNG carriers. In the next five years, the LNG shipping market will have sufficient transportation demand to digest the current excess capacity of LNG ships and new ship orders. The second is that the oil trade pattern changes and large-scale tankers are needed. The third is that the trend of large-scale container ships remains unchanged, mainly due to the cost advantage of large-scale container ships. The fourth is that the “Belt and Road” has an important impact on trade and port construction, which has led to the continuous growth of demand for various ships, which has led the shipbuilding industry to turn to high-end development.

In 2018, China's economic development will maintain steady and rapid growth. The demand for steel in major downstream industries will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down. Among them, the real estate industry is steadily getting colder, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, and automobile growth is sluggish. Machinery The industry is still booming and the shipbuilding industry is undergoing high-end transformation. According to the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, China's steel demand in 2018 is 730 million tons, an increase of 0.7%. In terms of industries, the demand for steel in the construction industry was 388 million tons, a slight increase of 0.3%; the demand for steel in the railway industry was 100,000 tons, an increase of 4.1%; the demand for steel in the automotive industry was 59.5 million tons, an increase of 2.6%; the demand for steel in the machinery industry 138 million tons, an increase of 1.5%; steel industry demand for steel industry is 14.5 million tons, an increase of 3.6%

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