The author believes that the specific analysis of excess capacity should not be generalized. The overcapacity of cement should be divided into structural surplus and regional surplus. The so-called structural overcapacity is caused by the overcapacity of backward capacity. For example, Guangdong and Shandong, the major economic provinces, accounted for 35% and 37% of the province's total production capacity. Regional overcapacity is basically caused by too much, too fast or repeated construction of new dry process production lines. For example, the backward production capacities in Zhejiang, Henan, and Anhui provinces have already largely been eliminated. If there is excess capacity in these areas, it is not a matter of backward production capacity. Potential areas of potential overcapacity include Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Chongqing. After the new dry lines under construction and proposed production are put into operation, even if all backward production capacity is eliminated, there will be oversupply. With regard to structural overcapacity, through market competition, it is beneficial to eliminate backwardness and can “turn bad things into goodâ€. Specific analysis of regional overcapacity needs to be made. Some are reasonable and some are unreasonable. For example, excess production capacity in Anhui Province is reasonable, and it can use the unique conditions of the Yangtze River water transport to supply the Yangtze River Delta market conveniently. However, if the provinces in Sichuan and Ningxia are restricted by geographical conditions, if there is excess capacity, it will be a headache. The so-called scale economy refers to the phenomenon of economic returns caused by the decrease in the production cost of a unit product due to an increase in the scale of production. When the ratio of increase in production scale is less than the rate of increase in earnings, it means that the scale returns increase, that is, N times of input produces more than N times of the income; when the ratio of increase in production scale is greater than the rate of increase of earnings, it means that the scale of return decreases. , that is, N times the input produces less than N times the income. This means that earnings have not always increased with the increase in production scale. Under certain conditions, when the scale is large to a certain extent, the income will decrease with the increase of the scale. Economic size refers to the optimal production scale to achieve the minimum unit cost. We are pursuing the best economic efficiency (ie, the lowest cost) rather than pursuing the largest scale. The benefits of cement industry products are not only affected by production costs, but also affected by the transportation costs of reaching the market. In the case where the market consumption density (represented by the annual consumption of cement per unit area) is constant, the scale of the plant increases, the transportation radius increases, and transportation costs also increase. When the increase in transportation costs exceeds the economic benefits brought about by the increase in scale, economies of scale become diseconomies of scale (ie, returns to scale). For example, in a certain region of the western region, a 3000t/d production line would have been relatively reasonable. However, considering the economies of scale, the 5000t/d production line will be determined. The production cost of cement in the latter production line can be reduced by about RMB 10/t (While the increase in labor productivity, wages are saved by RMB 6/t, electricity savings by RMB 2.5/t, and coal saving by RMB 1.5/t); energy savings are approximately 4.7 kg/t coal equivalent. (While saving heat consumption 20 kcal / kg equivalent to standard coal 2.9kg / t, saving 5 degrees / t equivalent to standard coal 1.8kg / t). However, the vehicle transportation radius increased from the original 150 km to 250 km, which increased the distance by 100 km. The one-way freight increased by 40-50 yuan/t (not including the highway tolls), and the vehicle oil consumption increased by 3-4 kg/100 km. t, equivalent to standard coal 4.3 ~ 5.8kg / t. This shows that not only has not saved energy, it has not saved costs, and the cost of reaching the market has increased a lot. Therefore, on the issue of scale, we cannot simply pursue the benefits brought by the increase in scale, and we must also consider the negative impact caused by the unreasonable increase in scale. On the issue of scale, it is necessary to fully weigh the pros and cons. If the size is large, the size is small, so as to obtain a reasonable “economy scale,†the bigger the better. The relationship between the ratio of clinker and cement deviated, causing the two growth rates to be out of synch. In 2009, the output of cement clinker in the country increased by 10.4% over the previous year, while cement production increased by 16.1%. Analysis of the reasons for this is related to the increase in the proportion of new dry clinker. The new dry clinker has a high quality, and has a large bearing capacity on the blended material, and generally increases the blending amount of the blended material. As a result, the proportion of low-grade grade 32.5 cement accounts for more than 60% of the total cement volume. Second, it is not strict. According to the cement standard specification, add the mixed material. The author finds that many manufacturers have ordinary Portland cement names that are not true for the pursuit of profits. The national standard of cement provides that the amount of ordinary Portland cement admixture is ≤20%, but it is often exceeded in actual operations. It is not uncommon for mixed materials to contain more than 30% of the admixture. However, it is not easy for non-industry insiders to find out. of. Due to the above reasons, China's cement has become statistically more and more outrageous, and it cannot be compared with international cement. It is suggested that related departments should strengthen supervision and inspection in the future, and effective inspection methods for checking cement mixture exceeding standards should be available. In addition, it is advocated that some mixed materials (such as slag, fly ash, etc.) are finely ground separately, and incorporated as fine aggregates (or micro-aggregates) at concrete mixing stations as in foreign countries. In this way, the mixing amount of the mixed material in the grinding process of the cement mill can be greatly reduced, so that the ratio of the cement to the clinker can be returned to normal. The author finds that the proportion of cement investment in the western region seems to be too large and the growth rate is too fast. In 2009, the fixed assets investment (FAI) in the three regions of the East, Central and West regions was 109.765 billion yuan, 62.839 billion yuan, and 513.34 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 49%, 28%, and 23% of the total fixed asset investment in the country. The cement investment in the western region accounts for 43% of the country's total cement investment, which is almost twice as much as the fixed asset investment in the country accounting for 23% of the total fixed asset investment in the country. From another perspective, the GDP of the East, Central and West regions in 2009 was 2,097.6 billion yuan, 8,8562.8 billion yuan, and 6.6868 trillion yuan respectively, which accounted for 58%, 24%, and 18% of the national GDP respectively. In 2009, the cement output of the East, Central and West regions was 73.495 million tons, 48.914 million tons and 41.092 million tons respectively, which accounted for 45%, 30%, and 24% of the total national cement output, respectively. The amount of cement in the western region obviously exceeds the level of local economic development. For example, the per capita cement consumption in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia in the western region has reached 1,765 kg and 1,703 kg, respectively, exceeding the average of the eastern region and the national average. Therefore, the new dry process production line in the western region should not mention "strengthening development" any more, and it can only "differentially develop" in a differentiated manner.
Zhai Xiangyu: One of the trends in the development of the general trend: The bigger the “snowball†of the big group is, the bigger the industry concentration will be further increased under the dual pressure of the (2009) and No.38 (2010) and No.7 documents. Most of the backward production capacity of the cement industry will exit the market in the next three years. At the same time, the quality and strength of mergers and reorganizations of cement companies will also be upgraded. From the merger of the former large enterprises to a bit of “hungry for foodâ€, they will evolve into large regional mergers and acquisitions of large enterprise groups. The number of companies will be greatly reduced, and industry concentration will be reduced. Significantly improved. Some industry insiders predict that by 2015, the output of cement clinker from the top 10 large enterprise groups is expected to exceed 50% of the total output.
The second trend is the utilization of waste slag and the development of circular economy has become the mainstream. Since the 50th to 60th century in the last century, China has started to use industrial waste residue. The types and quantities of industrial waste residues in the 70s and 80s have been increasing, with the exception of slag. Fly ash, coal gangue, calcium carbide slag, steel slag, phosphorus slag, copper slag, red mud, sugar slag, exhaust gas removal gypsum, etc. have successively entered the cement production field, not only used as cement mixing materials, but also used as clinker production ingredients. . In the 1990s, progress was made in dealing with municipal waste, sewage sludge, and some toxic and harmful substances. Since the beginning of the new century, the cement industry has become more and more widely used in the development of circular economy, with preferential policy guidance and good economic returns, attracting more enterprises to enter the ranks of developing circular economy, and obtaining cement industry through technological progress and product quality and efficiency. Economic growth.
The third trend: the development of low-carbon economy, emission reduction, and efficiency gains are in the ascendant The cement industry is an industry with a relatively high CO2 emission per unit of GDP for three reasons: first, low value-added high energy consumption for cement; second, calcination of cement clinker mainly uses coal as fuel. The third and most important reason is to use limestone as raw material. About 0.8 tons of CO2 are emitted per ton of clinker. In 2009, China's cement industry produced about 14.7 tons of CO2 emissions per million yuan of GDP, which is 5.9 times of the country's average CO2 emissions per million yuan of GDP. Therefore, how to increase the intensity of energy conservation and emission reduction and reduce the CO2 emission per unit of cement output value is a major issue facing the cement industry.
The cement industry is now looking for ways to reduce CO2 emissions. For example: (1) Adopting advanced energy-saving technologies and processes to increase the energy efficiency of cement kilns to reduce CO2 emissions; (2) Reducing CO2 emissions related to power generation by implementing energy-saving technologies and using electricity-saving equipment to reduce electricity consumption (3) Reduce CO2 emissions through intensive and scale production; (4) Use alternative raw materials as raw materials for clinker production; (5) Use ground slag, fly ash, natural volcanic ash or limestone fine powder instead Partial clinker; (6) Heavy use of certain combustible wastes as a secondary alternative fuel for cement kilns; (7) Improve the quality of cement and prolong the service life of cement and concrete to reduce the amount of cement; (8) Collect and recycle CO2 for comprehensive utilization and production of derivative products.
Trend 4: From the cement export to the export of complete sets of equipment and general contracting of projects Facing the shrinking of the international cement trade market and the construction of cement projects in developing countries, the export volume of cement (including clinker) in China has been declining for four consecutive years. From the highest in 2006 to 36.13 million tons (accounting for 2.91% of the total output in the same year), it decreased to 15.61 million tons in 2009 (accounting for 0.95% of the total output in the same year). Under the support of the state's strategy of encouraging cement companies to “go globalâ€, China Sinoma Group and China National Building Materials Group have made outstanding achievements in the export of cement equipment and general contracting of projects. The contracted projects are not only 5000t/d, 6000t/d, but also 10,000t/d. Compared with foreign contractors, China’s contracted overseas cement plant project has its construction cost reduced by 25% to 35% and the construction period shortened by 20% to 30%. It is highly competitive. At present, Chinese companies are in the international cement construction contracting market. The share has reached more than 40%.
Trend 5: From the single cement production to the development of diversified industries, it has become commonplace in the past to see the development of diversified industries. For example, coal, steel, chemicals, electric power, light industry, agricultural reclamation, and construction and real estate development have long been the norm. Get involved in the cement industry. The "Cement Everyone" is a new thing that has only appeared in these years. For example, the Beijing Jinyu Group, which was initially developed on the basis of the Liulihe Cement Plant and the Beijing Cement Plant, has become a large-scale enterprise group integrating cement, new building materials, real estate development, property investment and management as its core industries. Another example is Inner Mongolia Mengxi Hi-Tech Group, which started from a little-known cement company. The industry has already involved cement, kaolin, nano-materials, carbon dioxide-degradable plastics, fly ash-extracted alumina, and technology development. Recently, it is known from Jidong Cement Group's name of “Jiandong Development Group†that the new Jidong Group not only continues to grow and strengthen its cement industry, but also focuses on cement equipment manufacturing, wind power equipment manufacturing and project contracting, and expands the commercial concrete business. , And get involved in the real estate development industry.
It can be seen from this that the cement industry develops from a single cement production to a diversified industry. It not only plays an important role in increasing the size of the company from small to large, but also extends the industrial chain and promotes the joint development of the three industries of building materials, construction and real estate development. It is of great significance to realize the transformation of economic growth mode, especially for the transformation of cement companies that are facing depletion of mine resources.
Four new features:
Entering the era of new dry cement cement to achieve "low investment, localization" is the key to China's full entry into the era of new dry cement. Conch Group and Shanshui Group are the pioneers in the process of this process. The rapid development of China's new dry process cement stems from significant progress in the research and development, design, and manufacturing of new dry process cement technology. Based on the development and development of 2000t/d complete sets of technology and equipment in the past, it has adopted a combination of self-developed and imported absorption to further develop new dry process cement production technology and equipment of 5000t/d, 8000t/d and 10,000t/d grades. . The increase in the localization rate of large-scale equipment has greatly enhanced the competitiveness of enterprises. The new dry-process cement production process and equipment have achieved outstanding results in terms of energy-saving process, large-scale technological equipment, clean production environment, and informatization of control management. As the technology is advanced, mature, and reliable, the major technical and economic indicators of the new dry process cement production line have reached the advanced level of similar international production lines, manufacturing costs have decreased significantly, and the competitiveness of enterprises has been significantly enhanced. According to statistics from the China Cement Association, as of the end of 2009, there were 1,113 new dry process cement production lines in operation throughout the country, and annual designed clinker production capacity was 9,595,000 tons. Among them, the production capacity of cement clinker produced by the production line with a daily output of 5,000 tons and above accounts for 45.27% of the total new dry process cement clinker production capacity. The proportion of new dry-process cement has reached 76.88%. The single-line production capacity is developing to a large scale. Following the commissioning of several 10000t/d production lines of the conch, the 12,000t/d production line of Henan Tianruiyang has also been put into normal operation, and the national backward cement production capacity is being accelerated.
Unprecedented increase in industry concentration In recent years, the expansion of large-scale cement enterprise groups has promoted the pace of mergers and reorganizations and increased the concentration of large enterprise groups in the cement industry. In 2009, there were 65 cement companies (groups) with an annual production capacity of over 5 million tons, cement clinker production capacity was 673 million tons, accounting for 48.53% of the total production capacity of cement clinker, and cement clinker production was 560 million tons, accounting for cement 51.91% of the total output of clinker; 20 cement companies (groups) with more than 10 million tons, 442 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 34.76% of the total production capacity of cement clinker, and 419 million tons of cement clinker production. It accounts for 38.82% of the total output of cement clinker.
Significant energy-saving and emission-reduction achievements The energy-saving and emission-reduction achievements are remarkable. In 2009, the comprehensive energy consumption of cement products was greatly reduced. The energy consumption per tonne of clinker was 124.15 kg of standard coal, which was 4.85% lower than in 2008; the energy consumption per ton of cement was 95.08 kg of standard coal, compared with 2008. Decrease 8.11%. As of 2009, there were 498 new dry process lines with capacity over 2000t/d installed with waste heat power generation, with a total installed capacity of 3,316mw, an annual power generation capacity of 2,20 billion kWh, energy saving of more than 8 million tons of standard coal, and emission reduction of 20 million tons of CO2.
Rapid development of cement grinding enterprises At the end of 2009, among nearly 5,000 cement production enterprises, there were more than 1,800 cement grinding enterprises; of the 2.269 billion tons of cement production capacity, cement grinding enterprises had a capacity of 713 million tons, accounting for cement production capacity. 31.41%; In 2009, the output of cement grinding enterprises nationwide was 501 million tons, accounting for 30.36% of the national cement output.
In cement grinding enterprises, the number of enterprises with an annual production capacity of over 600,000 tons accounts for 1/5, and production capacity accounts for nearly 60%. Large-scale cement grinding enterprises are mainly distributed around large and medium-sized cities or in land and water transportation hubs. Large-scale enterprise groups implement specialized production internally, forming a production pattern of clinker production base plus cement grinding station.
Hot thinking and discrimination:
With regard to the issue of excess capacity, structural and regional excess capacity has emerged in the macro layout of rapid growth in production capacity. Through years of efforts to "adjust the pressure of large and small, eliminate backward" adjustment structure, the proportion of backward cement production capacity has dropped significantly. However, as of the end of 2009, there were still nearly 400 million tons of backward production capacity in the country, which accounted for 1/5 of the total production capacity. Although some provinces such as Zhejiang, Henan, Anhui and other backward production capacity have basically withdrawn from the market, new dry process cement production capacity also has a regional surplus. For example, the actual output of cement in Anhui Province in 2009 was more than 72 million tons, but the output of cement clinker reached 50 million tons. Subsequently, it is estimated that Sichuan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and other western regions will also have regional excess capacity.
Issues concerning the control of new production capacity under the New Deal In August last year, China Development (2009) Paper No. 38 put forward measures to strictly control new production capacity. Its core is to improve the industry's new capacity entry thresholds and receive project approval authority, which is undoubtedly very correct. However, in actual control and implementation, they often indiscriminately "bravely brake." The first is the unclear definition of "new capacity", which seems to be regardless of the new dry clinker production line capacity or the capacity of new large-scale cement grinding stations; whether it is new capacity or new technology for new (expanded) projects. The newly added capacity of the transformation project will all be suspended. Second, whether it is in line with the project of the government-led industrial policy of No. 38, or the project that does not meet the industrial policy orientation, it will also be discontinued. This "one-size-fits-all" approach can, for a short period of time, take a long time, and it will affect the elimination of backward production capacity, which is not conducive to structural adjustment. The author believes that the suppression of excess production capacity should mainly curb the clinker production line with new or expanded layouts that are unreasonable. The large-scale cement grinding station with reasonable layout and technological upgrade projects should not be suppressed.
The “false integration†phenomenon in the reorganization to control aggregates, optimize stocks, promote mergers, reorganizations, and joint reorganizations is an industry policy that has been advocated in recent years and is an important principle advocated by Guofa (2009) No. 38. In these areas, state-owned enterprises play a very important role and have achieved remarkable results. However, there are also some flaws in the reorganization. These deficiencies are manifested in: heavy forms, ignoring the content; heavy quantity, ignoring quality; heavy turbulence, neglecting practical results; and heavy reorganization, ignoring internal management. This kind of "reform and integration only with physical changes, without chemical changes" is actually "false integration" and will not bring about much economical changes. It is suggested that relevant departments should specify several standards for implementation of reorganization and integration in order to facilitate inspection and measurement. Because this issue involves the “concentration†problem of the industry, “false integration†will not bring “real concentrationâ€, but it will bring confusion to the statistical work.
About the issue of "economy of scale" and "economic scale" After the advent of the Nissan Ten Thousand-ton Production Line in China, there seems to be a trend of "bigger scale is better," and individual western regions are also eager to try tens of thousands of tons of production lines. The author believes that this is a misunderstanding caused by one-sided understanding of "scale economy".
About the deviation of the relationship between the ratio of clinker and cement In recent years, the growth rate of cement production is higher than the growth rate of clinker production. From the 1990s to the beginning of this century, the proportion of clinker and cement production in the country has been around 72%. By 2008, the ratio of clinker to cement output has fallen below 70%; in 2009, the ratio of clinker and cement production once again dropped to 65.45%, which means that in 2009, China produced an average of three tons of cement with two tons of clinker.
About the transfer of new dry process capacity from east to west In 2009, the national investment in cement industry totaled 170 billion yuan, a growth rate of 61.75%. Among them, the eastern region’s investment was 41.525 billion yuan, a growth rate of 54.37%, accounting for 24.42%; the central region’s investment was 55.889 billion yuan, a growth rate of 41.39%, accounting for 32.86%; the western region’s investment was 72.659 billion yuan, a growth rate of 87.66%. The proportion of 42.72%.
The former president of the China National Building Materials Industry Planning and Research Institute, Yu Xianghong, believes that since the beginning of the new century, China's cement industry has undergone a revolutionary change and has entered the era of new dry cement. The future development of the cement industry should be adjusted from the encouragement of the development of a new dry process cement production line to the development of a low-carbon recycling economy, further increase the utilization of waste slag and emission reduction and efficiency improvement, and respect on the basis of specific analysis of excess capacity and new production capacity. The industry's "economic scale" and "clinker-to-cement ratio" and other objective laws, through the structural optimization and upgrading and corporate mergers and reorganization to enhance the industry's concentration and comprehensive benefits.