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China's demand remains strong Analysts said on Friday that this week's ambitious expansion plan for large aluminum producers is unlikely to change the outlook for global supply shortages in the coming years, as demand continues to be strong, especially from China. Macquarie Bank analyst Adam Rowley said: "Most projects have been announced in the past few days or weeks. These projects will be built in the next two to three years and will be in the next four, five or six years. Completed. "The global aluminum supply gap is forecasted at 500,000 tons in 2004 and 400,000 tons in 2005. The year-end inventory will maintain about six weeks of consumption, while the inventory as of the end of April can maintain nearly eight weeks of consumption. On Thursday, Russian Rusal RUSAL and its Kazakh Eurasian Industrial Association (EIA) stated that they plan to invest US$3 billion in the establishment of an aluminum smelter and an alumina refinery in Kazakhstan. Not long ago, the world's largest aluminum producer - Alcoa (Alcoa) ) said it plans to establish a $1 billion aluminum smelter in Trinidad with an annual production capacity of at least 250,000 tons due to the rich natural gas reserves in the Caribbean island countries. It is considering cutting production or delaying expansion plans because the Chinese government has restricted investment projects in the aluminum industry, coupled with rising raw material and energy costs, and China is facing power shortages. China's aluminum demand accounts for about 20% of global demand. ** Chinese government restricts expansion of aluminum industry** An industry official said on Friday that since mid-2003, China’s measures to curb the excessive expansion of the aluminum industry have led to the suspension or postponement of the 2.37 million tons of planned production capacity, but An additional 3 million tons of new production capacity is already under construction. To cool down the overheated economy, the Chinese government began a relatively new round of restrictions on bank loans at the end of April. The price of electricity has been raised twice this year, plus aluminum exports. Factors such as the reduction in tax rebate rate have further affected the aluminum smelters that have already been plagued by electricity shortages. The Chinese government is also considering whether to abolish or further reduce the current 8% export tax rebate rate. From January 1 this year, the tax rebate rate is from 15 % is reduced to 8%. In the short term, such measures will affect China’s aluminum production but it should not affect China’s aluminum demand. Raleigh said: “These measures basically It is unlikely that China will become a net exporter of aluminum. These measures are basically favorable to aluminum prices, but they are not conducive to alumina prices." "This is a drop in alumina prices from the current high of 530 US dollars a month ago to 430. One reason for the U.S. dollar. ** Strong demand ** As the market is focused on China, the strong demand momentum in other parts of the world seems to be ignored. Standard Bank stated in a new report that U.S. primary aluminum consumption in 2004 will increase compared to last year. 9.0% to 6.6 million tons, an increase of 3.3% last year. Japan's demand in 2004 will also increase by 5.0% from the previous year to 2.2 million tons, due to the strong export market. Raleigh pointed out that the global aluminum demand is 8-9% per year. The growth rate is about 30 million tons. "The demand growth in the next 10 years will be 5% per year. The annual increase in aluminum demand will be 1.5 million, and the increase in alumina will be 3 million tons." But looking for cheap and long-term electricity supply The address of the aluminum plant has a certain degree of difficulty, which inhibits the expansion of the industry. The electricity market also affects aluminum production, especially in the northwestern United States and China this year.