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Dear guests, experts, good morning everyone!
I am very pleased to participate in the "2014 Intelligent Processing and Advanced Cutting Technology Exchange Conference" jointly organized by Kennametal Metals and Metalworking Magazine.
Since 2012, due to the comprehensive factors such as the rebalancing of the global economy and the slowdown of China's economic growth, China's machine tool industry has undergone fundamental changes. The industry is facing and undergoing a severe test of adjustment and transformation, and is also full of potentials. Growth opportunities. From the perspective of the operation of China's machinery manufacturing industry in 2013, the industry closely related to informationization, automation, and intelligent transformation and upgrading is developing faster than the traditional manufacturing industry. This situation is also very suitable for the theme of this conference: intelligent processing and advanced cutting technology development. In the following, combined with the characteristics of the industry operation in 2013, we will discuss with you the future development of the machine tool industry.
I. Operation characteristics of China's machine tool industry in 2013
The overall characteristics: the machine tool industry is in a low-level operation state; the capacity utilization rate is low, the market size is shrinking overall; the market competition is fierce, the profit rate continues to decline; the machine tool export has not seen a significant improvement, and the long-term growth of imports has also fallen sharply.
Machine tool production: In 2013, machine tool production continued its downward trend in 2012, but the decline narrowed month by month. From January to December, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 725,900 units, down 1.54% year-on-year. The output of CNC machine tools was 209,300 units, up 2.16% year-on-year. From the trend, the output of CNC machine tools in the second half of 2013 was higher than that of Jinqi machine tools. Mainly affected by the base of the previous year.
In 2012, the scale of China's tool market has shrunk from 40 billion yuan in 2011 to 34 billion yuan, and tool imports have dropped from 13.5 billion yuan to 11.5 billion yuan. Both data have fallen by about 15% year-on-year, and tool exports have fallen from 8.5 billion yuan. To 7.6 billion yuan. Although the amount of imported tools in January-November 2013 decreased by 0.49% year-on-year, it still reached US$1.25 billion. Overall, imported tools showed a downward trend.
Looking at the import and export data again, in 2013, the import of metal processing machine tools was 73,733 units and 100.15 billion US dollars, the amount decreased by 25.37% year-on-year, and the average import unit price was 135,800 US dollars. Among them, the processing center imported 20,741 units, 3.382 billion US dollars, the amount decreased by 40.14%; CNC machine tools imported 15,937 units, 4.169 billion US dollars, the amount decreased by 11.71%.
The above data fully shows that the Chinese machine tool market is undergoing very significant changes. The outstanding features are: the total demand declines, the demand structure rises, and imported machine tools tend to be high-end products.
Second, some thoughts on the machine tool industry
From a macro perspective, the recent Central Economic Work Conference has clearly conveyed the policy signal of “stable progressâ€, so the national economy is expected to maintain steady development in 2014; while the emerging economies in the international economic environment are relatively difficult, But developed countries are slowly recovering. Overall, we believe that the machinery industry in 2014 can continue to maintain steady growth while the structure has been adjusted.
Affected by the big environment, after the output of machine tool mainframes dropped sharply in the previous year, in general, the machine tool mainframe enterprises are still in the decline channel in 2014, or they will face problems such as overcapacity, insufficient orders, excessive competition, and price decline. The performance of low-end machines and heavy-duty machine tools is more prominent.
The use of modern and efficient tools needs to be promoted. According to statistics, the annual tool consumption in developed countries is about 50% of machine tool consumption. It is much higher than the proportion of tool consumption in China's manufacturing industry. From a global perspective, in 2008, machine tool consumption reached 85 billion US dollars, while tool consumption also reached a new high of 21 billion US dollars, the global average of tool consumption and machine tool consumption is about 25%. In China, machine tool consumption has ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years, and in 2008 it reached a record level of 19.44 billion US dollars. For the first time, China's tool consumption has surpassed that of major developed countries, reaching US$4 billion. However, compared with the huge scale of machine tool consumption in China's manufacturing industry, the level of tool consumption is still very low, only 20% of machine tool consumption. This proportion is not only far lower than that of developed countries, but also lower than the world average. This shows that in China's tool consumption, cheap and inefficient traditional tools still dominate, machine tool functions are far from being fully utilized, and the potential for manufacturing to increase labor productivity is huge. This is not only the gap between China's tool industry, but also the use of China's tool industry.
From the enterprise level, after more than two years of market testing, many companies have gradually responded to changes in the market, gradually shifting to actively adapt to changes, proactively positioning the product market, and looking for market opportunities based on their own characteristics. In the current situation, industry companies must completely abandon their expectations of the government to further launch a strong economic stimulus plan, and give up the desire for a strong rebound in demand in the low-end market. These expectations and cravings are unrealistic and must be self-adjusted.
Comprehensive and deepening reforms and innovations will inevitably lead to more potential development opportunities. For example, the phenomenon of “machine substitution†that is emerging in various places is giving the machine tool industry an unprecedentedly favorable upgrade market. The core of “machine substitution†is to upgrade the backward manufacturing method to a more efficient, environmentally friendly, more reliable and more profitable manufacturing method, which is beneficial to improve the income and quality of life of workers. The trend is unstoppable. The machine tool industry must seize this opportunity.
Third, the direction of the machine tool industry efforts
(1) It is to strengthen the construction of experimental conditions for research and development, and increase investment in research and development activities. In order to improve the reliability and precision of machine tools, to create the necessary research and development facilities for the common diseases and frequent diseases of domestic machine tools, we will consistently create a high-quality image of Chinese machine tools.
(2) Actively aiming at the processing requirements of different users, actively carry out research and research on processing technology, accumulate data, improve products, improve the ability to provide users with “complete solutionsâ€, and improve themselves in the process of improving quality and efficiency for users. Additional value.
(3) It is the next big force to break through the weak links of numerical control system and functional components, cultivate competitive basic supporting industries, get rid of the bottleneck constraint of the weak foundation on the development of the machine tool industry, and provide strong support for the host to upgrade to high-end.
(4) Taking the direction of digitization, automation, intelligence, networking and greening as the main direction, actively planning the upgrading of traditional machine tool products, and occupying a place for the Chinese machine tool industry to compete in the future world high-end products and improve the future of Chinese machine tools. Prepare for high-end market share.
(5) It is the road to the "special and strong" modern tool enterprise
China's tool enterprises to develop modern and efficient tool technology, should implement the "special and strong" guidelines. It is necessary to advocate "strengthening" rather than promoting blind "bigger". Modern high-efficiency tools are “high-precision, high-efficiency, high-reliability and special-purpose†tool products developed to meet the specific needs of the manufacturing industry. The competitiveness of modern tool companies is not reflected in the cost performance of its products, but in its ability to provide the industry with a "total solution" that improves efficiency and reduces costs. Therefore, the development from a traditional tool enterprise to a modern tool enterprise is to change from “Wanjin Oil†to an expert.
In the current market environment, machine tool enterprises must turn to the “scale benefits†of products that can be produced by many peers, and do everything possible to help users to obtain “scarcity benefits†supported by their own unique advantages, and obtain in the process. Its own development opportunities.
“Scarcity benefits†come from products with high performance and cost performance; craftsmanship that people can't do; lean management level compared with peer companies; marketing skills with brand marketing and international marketing extraordinary returns; A talented team with outstanding quality and vision. To this end, machine tool enterprises must transform the habitual thinking of extension and expansion, and strive to cultivate their own unique core competitiveness. Increase investment in research and development, attach importance to the construction of test conditions and human resources, improve the innovation ability of products and processes; actively promote the in-depth integration of informationization and industrialization, pursue green and internationalization of products and production processes, and improve production and marketing of enterprises. The lean level of management.
Finally, I hope that the industry enterprises can strengthen their confidence, carefully plan their own "strength" strategy and ways to achieve it, use the mechanism to change the pressure, change the pressure as the driving force, tap the dividend of reform, cultivate the ability to drive innovation, find the breakthrough, and clearly focus on Point, turn passive into initiative, and achieve new breakthroughs in the new round of development stage of China's machine tool industry.
I wish the "2014 Intelligent Processing and Advanced Cutting Technology Exchange Conference" a complete success. thank you all!
Summary --To the guests of the Kennametal Metal Intelligent Processing and Advanced Cutting Technology Exchange Conference and Kennametal Users Open Day 2014, distinguished experts, good morning everyone! I am very pleased to participate in the "2014 Smart Plus... jointly organized by Kennametal Metals and Metalworking Magazine...
-- Speech for the 2014 Kenner Metal Intelligent Processing and Advanced Cutting Technology Exchange Conference and Kennametal User Open Day