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Inflation expectations remain strong Although the recent vegetable prices have dropped significantly, the market generally expects that CPI will not fall significantly in April. Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of Economic Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with this reporter that since March, the structure of price increases has changed, vegetable prices have dropped significantly, and non-food prices such as service prices and house prices have risen considerably. In addition, there are factors such as rising labor costs, and it is expected that CPI will remain at a high level of around 5% in April. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the current CPI is mainly affected by the hikes. In the first quarter of this year, the CPI year-on-year increase was 5%, the hike factor accounted for 3.3 percentage points, and the new price increase factor was only 1.7 percentage points. However, Zhang Liqun also pointed out that compared with the same period of last year, the new price increase factor was reduced. The new price increase factor in the first quarter of last year was 2.1 percentage points. It is expected that the new price increase factor will be further reduced in April. Therefore, “the tail-end factor will decrease in the second half of the year, and the price increase of food and housing will be controlled in the new price increase factor. It is expected that inflationary pressure will slow down in the future.†In fact, from the perspective of commodity supply and demand, the current price The upward pressure is not very large. Experts said that the most important inflation is inflation expectations. Zhang Liqun told reporters: "At present, inflation expectations are driven by a variety of factors, including currency overshoot, imported inflationary pressures, cost pushes, etc., especially in the real estate market. There is still a lot of money in the real estate market, so future inflation The expectation has not disappeared and the pressure is still very large. So, one of the current policy goals is to manage inflation expectations. Zhang Liqun pointed out that from the perspective of monetary policy, it is necessary to continue to do a good job in resolving excess liquidity, controlling the growth of money supply, and controlling the increase in loans. In addition, real estate regulation and control must not be relaxed, especially institutional development should be further strengthened, such as the expansion of property tax pilots.
The signs of economic growth are showing signs that the current economic growth rate has shown signs of decline. The data showed that China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 52.9% in April, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The fall in the PMI in April showed that the manufacturing growth rate slowed down noticeably, and the impact of policy contraction on the real economy gradually appeared. . Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 32% year-on-year in the first three months of this year, and the growth rate of the chain also declined. In this regard, Zhang Liqun said that there are some concerns about the decline in economic growth. From the perspective of demand, consumption growth in the first quarter is declining. From the perspective of foreign trade, the first quarter is a deficit, and from the export perspective, the export growth rate in the second quarter is expected to be lower than the 26.5% in the first quarter. From the perspective of investment, the biggest uncertainty now is real estate investment. Under the background of property market regulation, the growth rate of investment in commercial housing is declining, and there is still uncertainty in whether the investment growth rate of affordable housing can be compensated. "So, at present, the investment, consumption, and export of the 'troika' that drive economic growth are slowing down in the future." Zhang Liqun said. In particular, high inflation is exacerbating high inventories. According to data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, at the end of March, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises nationwide increased by 23.2% year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the end of last month. The inventory backlog did not improve in April. The April PMI showed that the raw material inventory index for the month reached 52%, second only to the January 2010 high. Relevant data also showed that as of the end of March, the book inventory of listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had reached 3.53 trillion yuan, exceeding the level before the 2008 financial crisis and hitting a record high. The increase in the size of the inventory will have a large capital occupation, which will undoubtedly drag down the company's operating cash flow. Therefore, many companies' earnings expectations are lowered. Zhang Liqun said that inflation expectations are now driving stocks to increase faster, especially in the precious metals sector such as commerce, logistics, and copper. The increase in inventory will send an inaccurate signal to the production of the enterprise. The orders received by the enterprise are still increasing, and the operating rate is relatively high. However, once the future three major demand slowdowns appear, the inventory adjustment will be difficult to avoid. Production has a big impact, and ultimately it is characterized by a slowdown in economic growth. Yuan Gangming stressed that it is necessary to be alert to the risk of a slowdown in economic growth. "Once the economic growth rate declines rapidly, its harmfulness may be greater than the impact of inflation." Controlling inflation and stabilizing growth should be properly balanced. Although the economic growth rate is facing a downside risk, many analysts said that the current short-term decline in economic growth is the necessary cost of “structuring and transferring the wayâ€. The overall economic situation is still controllable. of. Zhang Liqun said that the annual economic growth rate of about 9% is not a big problem. "If the growth rate is more obvious, and the overall inflation expectations management has received some results, the policy can be properly balanced between inflation control and steady growth according to the development of the situation." Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of Economic Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the state is While managing inflation expectations, it is also preventing a sudden decline in economic growth. “Although the inflation situation was very serious last year, we can see that the growth rate of money is still very high, reaching 19.7% at the end of last year and currently at 17.6%, much higher than 14% in the 2008 financial crisis. The central bank has also said that it wants to’ Maintaining ample financing, which actually means maintaining economic growth. He expects that the annual economic growth rate this year will be slightly lower than 9.5%. Earlier, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that it is necessary to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, improve pertinence, flexibility, and effectiveness, and prevent excessive price increases and large fluctuations in the economy. Therefore, analysts pointed out that without changing the tone of the tightening, the government will adopt some flexible measures to accelerate industrial integration and upgrading, stimulate household consumption, broaden the direct financing channels of enterprises, and prevent economic stagflation.
The main economic data for April will be released next week, the most notable of which is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). At present, the market generally expects CPI to remain at a high level of around 5% in April, and inflationary pressures remain high. At the same time, there are indications that the economic growth rate has shown signs of decline. Many people are worried that the future macro economy may face the dual pressure of high inflation and slowing economic growth. In this regard, experts said that the risk of a slowdown in economic growth needs to be vigilant. Once the economic growth rate suddenly drops, its harmfulness may be greater than the impact of inflation. While managing inflation expectations, we must also prevent a rapid decline in economic growth.