Interpretation of current fertilizer import and export policy and potential

On December 15, the state formally introduced the 2011 fertilizer export tariff policy, which attracted a lot of domestic chemical fertilizer industry discussions. While Chinese companies are worried that the restrictions on fertilizer exports will affect the domestic market, many international fertilizer import countries are worried about tight supply next year. Price increased. In response to the impact of China's chemical fertilizer tariff adjustments on the international fertilizer market, the Chinese Agricultural Resources reporter investigated the import situation in India and Japan and interviewed Kevin Hill, the head of FMB in the United Kingdom.

India is making it harder to push prices down. India and China are also big demanders for fertilizers. It is understood that the consumption of fertilizers in India and China together account for 45% of global fertilizer consumption. Therefore, the trends of China and India in the fertilizer industry have largely affected international prices. With the continuous increase of domestic chemical fertilizer production capacity in recent years, India has become the main target market for international fertilizer trade. The original Indian Fertilizer Association, Pratap Narayan, told reporters that the Indian government hopes to maintain the same front line with China to carry out negotiations on potash import so as to increase the right to speak. However, due to the continuous improvement of domestic self-supply of chemical fertilizers, India gradually lost this "allies." To this end, the Indian government has increased corporate competition and promoted the development of domestic industries by reducing subsidies for fertilizer companies, while putting pressure on international exporters. Shortly after the introduction of a new subsidy policy in India, China’s new tariff policy brought greater pressure on India’s game in the international fertilizer market. The restrictions on the export of chemical fertilizers in China will lead to an international supply shortage, which is very unfavorable to the “bargaining” of India's import fertilizer negotiations. At the same time, both China and India are countries in the Eastern Hemisphere. The domestic market starts after February and stops in November. Western Hemisphere countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Argentina purchase from November to March. Therefore, India’s demand increases when it is implemented in China. Due to the export tariff period during the peak season, it is difficult to grasp the timing of imports.

Japan wants to seize raw material resources for fertilizers Asahi Shimbun reported that “similar to rare earths and iron ore, raw materials for fertilizers have become strategic raw materials for China and other countries. As the global population will increase from 6.9 billion today to 9.1 billion by 2050. Fertilizer demand will continue to grow, but Japan is increasingly relying on the import of phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers in the increasingly fierce competition for raw materials for chemical fertilizers.” China’s 110% export tariff during peak season will reduce Japan’s imports. The Japanese government and companies are aware that the reduction in imports and the scarcity of resources will affect domestic farming. It is reported that the Japanese trading company has taken action and Mitsui announced in April this year that it would participate in the Peruvian phosphate project in Brazil's Vale. "If the raw material market continues to monopolize, we can only accept the fact that demand has driven up prices," said Kojima Mitsui's general manager of fertilizers and raw materials. Kobayashi is also looking for potash mining rights.

Prices may fluctuate significantly next year For the global fertilizer market next year, Kevin Hill believes that the implementation of new export tariff policies next year in China is likely to lead to an increase in international fertilizer prices. According to his analysis, according to China's export tariff policy next year, the off-season implementation time will be shorter than that of 2010. China closed the urea export gate in January, November and December, and added a new period of low-tariff export from September to October. In general, due to the shortened export period and the reduction in the amount of urea in bonded warehouses, it is expected that China's export volume will decline from 5.5 million tons this year to 3.5 to 4 million tons in 2011, of which only 100,000 to 150 tons of urea can be obtained from bonded warehouses. Export. When the demand for fertilizers in the Asian market resumed in January, the trade volume of China's urea in the international market was very small, and it is likely that the price of urea supplied by the Middle East and other regions will increase. In November and December of next year, when China implements the tariff for the peak season, it is likely to cause a strong rise in international urea prices in the fourth quarter. With respect to ammonium phosphate, the reduction of the diammonium low tariff period next year will affect the supply of diammonium in the fourth quarter. However, exporters estimate that increasing the export volume as much as possible from June to September will also suppress the international price in the third quarter. In July and August of this year, China's exports of diammonium exceeded 700,000 tons per month. According to this trend, it is estimated that diammonium export volume in 2011 may be 2.8-3.0 million tons, compared with an estimated 350-year export this year. 3.7 million tons.