Petrochemical market rebounded last week, accounting for over 40% of products

The mountains and rivers do not have any doubts, Liu Minghua Ming Village. Petrochemical market conditions this week can be described as a reversal of the previous month's decline. Among them, the energy and chemical markets have been divided, but they have risen as their main melody; the rubber and plastic market continued its rebounding trend last week, and 70% of the rubber and plastic products monitored by the business community rose. Analysts believe that due to weak crude oil prices and the stability of downstream demand, the petrochemical market in July will be stable operation, it is difficult to rise or fall.

This week, the petrochemical market has recovered from the previous month, and organic chemicals may stand out in July. According to the changes in the prices of 100 petrochemical products, according to the statistics of business companies, there are 42 items of price increase this week, and the prices are unchanged from last week's 32 items, and there are 26 items with prices falling from last week.

Energy and Chemical Markets Divided In view of the energy market, 12 products in the energy market this week showed mixed performances. The crude oil and thermal coal markets have changed slightly from last week's upward trend and fell slightly. The market outlook is bearish. The petrol and diesel markets are not booming during the peak season and there is no good news. The coke and methanol markets have been warming up for a short time and the rise is weak. The game of good negative for methanol gasoline continued to debut and oscillated slightly. The dimethyl ether and liquefied petroleum gas markets are hot, buyers are optimistic, demand continues to increase, and the market continues to look bullish in the short term. Miao Xihua, president of the Business Energy Branch, believes that with the release of economic data from various countries, affected by the global economic downturn, international oil prices have repeatedly oscillated at current positions, which will increase the uncertainty of the future energy market trend.

This week, the domestic chemical market was stable, but the rising and falling products were clearly divided. Organic chemical products accounted for the rising mainstream, and inorganic chemical products generally fell rationally. Of the 68 major chemical products monitored by the business community, 22 were up products, which accounted for 32.35% of the monitored products. The top three products that accounted for the increase were acetic acid, which had a weekly increase of 10.66%. Xylene increased by a week. 2.93%; **, weekly increase was 2.57%. Twenty-seven products remained stable, accounting for 39.71% of the monitored varieties. There were 19 products that fell, which accounted for 27.94% of the monitored products. The top three products that accounted for the decline were HFC-134a, with a weekly decline of 13.04%; HFC-22, a weekly decrease of 12.45%, trichloroethylene, The weekly decline was 12.00%. On the whole, the domestic chemical market has seen a rise or fall.

Zhang Ming, president of the branch of Chemicals, believes that since the beginning of July, the domestic chemical market has gradually shifted from cost-driven to demand-driven, and regional large-scale device emergencies have also had a certain impact, taking into account the third quarter of recent years. The trend of chemical market trends, the end of July to mid-August, organic chemical products will become a thriving one, and three acid and alkali, bromine chemicals, fluorine chemical industrial chain related products will enter the short-term low tide; agrochemical products in late July to 10 There will be several short-term upward fluctuations in the first half of the month, and the annual price hikes will be expected to occur during this period. The recent promising products mainly include pure benzene, toluene, xylene, hydrogenated benzene, coking benzene, aniline, cyclohexanone, styrene and other aromatic hydrocarbon industry-related products.

The plastics and rubber market continued its rebound and finally looked at the rubber and plastics market. This week, the domestic rubber and plastics market continued to rebound, but the overall increase declined. Of the 20 products counted by the business club Rubber and Plastics Branch, only 4 products fell slightly, accounting for 20% of the total number of monitoring; the prices of the two products remained flat, accounting for 10% of the total number of monitoring; 14 kinds of products maintained rising trend, accounting for the total number of monitoring 70%. The top three of the products that rose were SBS, nitrile rubber, and ABS, which rose by 5.05%, 2.94%, and 2.36%, respectively; the top three products fell by PC, PA6, and PA66, which were 0.77%, 0.35%, and 0.28%, respectively.

Xue Jinlei, an analyst at the business club's rubber and plastics division, believes that the rebound in the rubber and plastics market has weakened. According to the market's normal rebound requirements, the rebound rate of most products has exceeded 50% of the previous period, which indicates that the rebound is gradually In place. How about the market trend after this wave of rally? Taking into account the next market is still a long-term anxious, on the one hand, petrochemical prices high firm; the other hand, the downstream plant operating rate is not high, the demand season is still not coming, so it is expected that the rubber and plastic market is difficult to have too much in the short term The gains, the market should maintain a narrow range biased upward.

Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of the business club, believes that the July petrochemical market is experiencing a major rise or fall. There are two reasons for this: First, crude oil may have significant support at $90/barrel, but the rise is weak, and there will be small boxes for a period of time. Volatility, which makes the downstream petrochemical products lack of cost speculation; Second, the current downstream demand is relatively stable, the industry is bearish, less bullish factors, buyers and sellers of the differences in the mild digestion, soaring or plunging the parties are reluctant to see of.

The continued rise in the price of synthetic rubber The price of synthetic rubber in China continued to rise this week due to the increase in upstream butadiene purchase costs and the rebound in natural rubber prices. According to statistics from the business community, the initial price of butadiene rubber was 33,300 yuan/ton, and the weekend price rose to 34,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.10%, an increase of 83.80% compared with last year; the styrene-butadiene rubber from early week was 32,900 yuan. Yuan/ton, rose to the weekend of 33,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.82%, compared with the same period last year, the increase in styrene butadiene rubber reached 120.40%.

Business community analysts Cao Yu and He Hangsheng believe that the upstream prices are affected by the cost of butadiene, stimulating the price of butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber to gradually increase; downstream demand from Japan's tires to pick up, the market gap further opened, butadiene rubber , SBR and other synthetic rubber prices are expected to continue to pull up. This week, Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as domestic and domestic well-known manufacturers such as Lugang, continued to increase the ex-factory price of SBR by RMB 600/ton, which led to rising market prices of traders. Market downstream end users still resist high prices, and production formulas are gradually transformed to support natural rubber prices. Under the double pull of prices of upstream butadiene and the recovery of downstream demand, synthetic rubber manufacturers have recently raised the ex-factory price continuously.

From the perspective of butadiene rubber, the 40,000 tons plant of Baling Petrochemical and the 120,000-ton plant of Yanshan Petrochemical were shut down and overhauled on July 10 and August respectively, together with Dushanzi, Yanshan, Gaoqiao Petrochemical, and Taizhou Rubber. In the third quarter, there are maintenance plans. The supply and demand gap in the butadiene rubber market will be further opened, and the price is expected to continue to increase.

Recently, the supply and sale of various butadiene rubber suppliers have successively staged a wave of upward adjustment and the market performed well. At present, new supply from the market is slow to make up, social inventories are still operating at a low level, and some of the holders of stocks are bullish and have no intention of selling at low prices. Coupled with the atmosphere of speculative speculation among middlemen, and the high raw material support, market prices have been pushed up quickly. Business club rubber and plastics branch butadiene rubber analyst Cao Yu predicts that short-term butadiene market prices continue to advance at high levels.

Synthetic rubber upstream this week increased the cost, the market supply is scarce, the atmosphere of downstream buying is weak, and each merchant's enthusiasm for sale is heavier, and the market outlook is mainly wait-and-see. With the arrival of the nationwide peak of electricity use in July and August in the summer, areas such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong are gradually “power cuts.” Suppliers are provided with fixed quotas; under the enormous pressure of high costs, the market outlook for styrene butadiene rubber may continue to be small. Rising, consolidating slowly up.

Qixiang Tengda (002408, closing price of 36.93 yuan) announced in January this year that the resolution of the general meeting of shareholders will use super-raised capital to invest in the establishment of a holding subsidiary to build an annual output of 50,000 tons of rare earth butadiene rubber project. Galaxy Securities believes that Qixiang Tengda Holding has a significant significance in operating 50,000 tons of rare earth butadiene rubber. Due to the tight supply of tire rubber in China, the current gross profit of butadiene rubber is more than 10,000 yuan, because the company is backed by Qilu Petrochemical has sufficient raw material advantages. 50,000 tons of rare earth butadiene rubber project will add new growth momentum to the company.

At the same time, Tianli Hi-tech (600339, closing price of 13.56 yuan) and Chuanhua Co. (002010, closing price of 11.00 yuan) are related companies that produce synthetic rubber products.

Acetic acid rose 43% year-on-year. Shanxi 3D will benefit from the sharp rise in glacial acid prices this week. The average domestic price of acetic acid at the beginning of the week was 3,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of acetic acid at the weekend rose to 3,928 yuan/ton. The overall increase reached 10.66%, which was a year-on-year increase of 42.84. %.

Business analysts believe that there are three main reasons for this week's rise in the acetic acid market: First, the export situation is relatively good, the domestic market supply has become tighter; Second, some production companies have limited production and production, production, production, production, production, production, production, production, production, production, production The downstream demand for acetate, chloroacetic acid, etc. is stable, which has a certain supporting effect on the price of acetic acid.

Gao Zizhai, an acetic acid analyst at the branch of the business club, believes that next week there will be sufficient market supply and relatively stable demand. The price of glacial acetic acid will be stable, and the possibility of a slight correction will not be ruled out.

The price of acetic acid continued to rise this week. The acetic acid price continued its upward trend and continued to go higher.

The price of acetic acid has been hovering around 3,000 yuan/ton since the beginning of this year. In early March, Celanese announced that its Nanjing Acetyl Plant, including a 300,000-ton/year vinyl acetate plant, was encountering force majeure, and quantified 40% of the acetic acid and vinyl acetate customers in mainland China and Taiwan. Subsequently, its influence was extended to other Asian countries and even Europe.

Due to successive failures of multiple sets of acetic acid units since the end of last year, the supply in European and Asian markets has been tightening, and the spot price of vinyl acetate monomer continues to rise. In the second quarter of Europe, the settlement price of acetic acid rose from €70/ton to €100/ton to €670/ton to €760/ton. Since late April, the supply of vinyl acetate monomer in the United States has also begun to tighten.

The above situation made the domestic acetic acid market unbalanced. The price of acetic acid went up all the way and reached 5,000 yuan/ton in early May. After that, the acetic acid price has been operating at a high level and maintained at around 4,000 yuan/ton.

Shanxi 3D rose 7.5% this week

As one of the main products of Shanxi Three-Dimensional (000755, closing price: RMB 12.70), the price of acetic acid has gone out of the trough since June and has risen slightly, which has played a positive supporting role for the company's share price. The company's stock price also rose from about 10 yuan/share in June to around 12 yuan/share, especially this week, soaring 7.54%.

Business analysts believe that the three-dimensional performance of Shanxi is affected by the price of the product. With the increase in the prices of major products, including acetic acid, the company's performance has improved significantly.

The 12% drop in trichloroethylene involved two listed companies. The market price of trichloroethylene dropped sharply from 10,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8,800 yuan/ton at the weekend. This week's drop reached 12%, and the year-on-year decline was also significant. It is 12%.

The atmosphere in the market trading is relatively weak, the manufacturer's equipment is normally driven, the supply is stable, the demand for downstream refrigerants and the like are reduced, and the demand for cleaning and other industries is also reduced. The manufacturer's sales are mainly based on contract orders, taking the goods in general, and the inventory is sufficient.

Gao Zizhai, an analyst at the branch of the business community, predicts that the market supply will be stable, demand will be stable, and market conditions will be stable.

The import channels may be reduced due to the toxicity of trichloroethylene. In developed countries, the production and restrictions on trichloroethylene will be more stringent, and the output will also shrink. This means that in addition to Russia, other major import sources of trichloroethylene in China will shrink, importing Scale will be affected. The Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of Fujian Province issued a document stating that this will further stimulate the release of domestic production capacity of trichloroethylene. Comprehensive information is expected that in the next 3 to 5 years, China's trichloroethylene supply gap will remain at the level of 30,000 to 40,000 tons/year. The expansion of the supply gap is due in large part to the insufficiency of domestic plant operating rates.

This is why some production facilities in foreign countries have stopped production since 2009, which caused tight supplies and increased prices. The domestic price of trichloroethylene rose to 7,500 yuan/ton to 7,800 yuan/ton. In 2010, it rose to more than 8,000 yuan/ton.

From 2004 to 2008, the price of trichloroethylene in China did not change much. The market price of trichloroethylene in the international market changed little and was relatively stable. The domestic price was also basically stable at 5,000 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton. between.

Business community analysts believe that China's current trichloroethylene market is stable, especially with the improvement of the global economic situation, the demand for trichloroethylene in all walks of life will steadily rise.

The quarterly report of the listed company or the affected Binhua Co., Ltd. (601678, closing price of 18.99 yuan) showed that the company's net profit in the first quarter was 156 million yuan, an increase of 89.04% year-on-year, and the basic earnings per share was 0.236 yuan.

The company’s semi-annual preannouncement announced on July 11 showed that its performance increased by 100% to 150% year-on-year, and said that the company’s main product, Tri-polyethylene, added 40,000 tons/year of capacity to put into operation at the end of 2010, making the company total trichloroethylene. The production capacity reaches 80,000 tons/year.

According to the industry, as one of the main products of the company, the price of trichloroethylene dropped sharply this week, which may cause short-term fluctuations in the stock price of listed companies.

On March 11 of this year, *ST Chemicals (000818, closing price of 6.62 yuan) resumed trading. The company's stock price stopped at the opening level, and there were five consecutive daily limit boards. According to the data, trichloroethylene is also one of the company's products.

In July last year, Liaoning Fangda Group obtained 190 million shares held by Jinhua Group, a former major shareholder of *ST Chemicals, for a total of 233 million yuan, accounting for 55.92% of the company's total share capital, and became a controlling shareholder. At the same time, Liaoning Fangda Group obtained the bankruptcy assets of the Jinhua Group related to the chlor-alkali industry through auctions, and transferred the assets to *ST Chemicals at bidding prices.

On July 5, the company announced its interim performance forecast, with a net profit of approximately 90 million yuan and a loss of 181 million yuan in the same period of last year.