The solar energy industry is declining, and wind energy becomes the new energy leader

In the past few years, with the attention given to climate change issues, non-petrochemical emerging clean energy has become the new darling of the market. Many investors and large companies have also invested in the development of solar energy, wind power generation, and geothermal energy. Among them, the development of solar energy and wind power is the most rapid. In addition to the government's strong subsidies, companies are also optimistic about the prospects of profitability and invest heavily.

However, after the eruption of Europe and the United States debt and financial crisis in 2011, the solar energy industry suddenly fell sharply, mainly due to the sharp decline in demand in Europe and the United States. Overproduction and blind expansion in the past few years led to excess capacity and inventory costs. Many companies have been unable to afford losses and have closed down, or have been struggling to support it, and have already entered the winter.

Compared to the recession of the solar energy industry, wind power generation has become the most promising renewable energy industry in the next few years. The industry is also gradually forming an oligopoly market through mergers and acquisitions and integration to avoid being too loose, individual, and small as the solar energy industry. The dilemma of the lack of corporate capital.

The solar industry has expanded significantly during the boom years of the past few years and is becoming the main reason for the current industry integration. However, even after the merger and acquisition of large-scale enterprises can not afford the cost pressures due to the sharp decline in demand in Europe and the United States, overcapacity, one after another layoffs, such as Suntech, Yingli and so on.

In order to protect its own industry, the United States International Trade Commission (ITC) also recently ruled that China’s domestic solar cell shipments to the United States have anti-dumping and anti-subsidy doubts, causing substantial damage to US related industries; China’s domestic side refuted this The United States is implementing protectionism and undermining market competition. If the US ITC formally decides to impose anti-dumping and countervailing punitive tariffs on China's domestic solar cells, it will further hurt Chinese domestic solar energy companies.

However, in fact, the process of rectification and integration of emerging industries such as solar energy is normal. Just like the personal computer (PC) industry and home appliance industry in the past, the overall industry may exceed hundreds or thousands of companies in the booming period. Many, but then began to integrate and into a stable development period, into a mature industry.

Second, because the current solar energy industry is not yet popular in the so-called emerging developing countries, because these countries are facing a period of rapid development, the required resources are huge, such as solar energy and other new energy construction costs are too high, and maturity is also far less than the petrochemical energy Therefore, solar-related products are still mainly exported to developed markets such as Europe and the United States. But now, these markets are suffering from debt and financial crisis, leading to a drop in demand. Once the market recovery in Europe and the United States and the global solar market mature, it is believed that the industry still has a future.

Wind power generation is expected to increase investment in the next few years

International market research organization Pike Consulting (PikeResearch) released a report that in the next five to six years, the investment in the wind power generation industry will increase significantly, becoming the most powerful industry in the clean energy market. The report predicts that by 2017, the global investment in wind power projects will increase from 77 billion U.S. dollars in 2011 to 153 billion U.S. dollars, and the cumulative investment in new installations will increase to 820 billion U.S. dollars. The total installed capacity in the world (including both land and sea) Wind power projects will also increase from 236 million kilowatts (KW) in 2011 to 563 million kilowatts.

In the next few years, the global wind power industry will be dominated by three major markets in Asia, Europe and North America. Among them, North America is led by the United States. At present, wind power generation accounts for about 3% of total U.S. electricity generation. The total installed capacity for the year ending in 2011 is about 7.5 million kilowatts, which is expected to double by 2013 mainly due to the expected economic growth from the second half of 2012. It will stabilize and companies will increase investment.

In the Americas, Brazil is expected to expand its investment in wind power and hopes to substantially increase its total installed capacity from the current 1.5 million kilowatts to 11.5 million kilowatts by 2020. This will bring wind power into the grid and will use it to wind power generation prices. From the current $1,000 per hour, 166 kW to the low price of $111, or even $55, it competes with the hydropower of 1,000-kilowatt per hour for $27 to $30.

Although Europe is plagued by budgets and other issues, it is still the most developed and popular region for wind power generation in the world. According to the latest research report of the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), 17 of the 27 EU countries are currently under construction, have approved or are The planned offshore large-scale wind power generation has a total installed capacity of 138 million kilowatts, which is 35 times more than the 4 million kilowatts currently put into operation. It is estimated that it will account for 13.1% of the total power generation of the European Union by 2020.

It is estimated that by 2020, the EU's top 10 offshore wind power countries will be respectively: 48.6 million kilowatts in the UK, 31.25 million kilowatts in Germany, 11.39 million kilowatts in Norway, 8.28 million kilowatts in Sweden, 6.8 million kilowatts in Spain, and 600 in France. Millions of kilowatts, 5.99 million kilowatts in the Netherlands, 4.89 million kilowatts in Greece, 4.29 million kilowatts in Finland, and 3.78 million kilowatts in Ireland. In addition, the EWEA report also pointed out that the European Union’s offshore wind power will create 160,000 in the next 10 years and will create 300,000 jobs in the next 20 years.

In Asia, wind power is still dominated by China. According to China's domestic 12th Five-Year Energy Development Plan, the total installed wind power capacity by 2015 will reach 100 million kilowatts, 200 million kilowatts in 2020, 400 million kilowatts in 2030, and 1 billion kilowatts in 2050. With 2%, 5%, 8%, and 17% of the total electricity consumption, it is estimated that the cumulative investment will be 12 trillion yuan in the next 40 years. In addition, in order to avoid the recurrence of the solar energy industry, China’s domestic government will develop wind power in an orderly manner, including re-integration, improved resource allocation, no waste, and no blind development to promote the healthy development of the industry.

According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg's New Energy Finance Wind Power Division, the cost of land-based wind power will drop by about 12% over the next five years. With the reduction in equipment costs and relative increase in power generation efficiency, it is expected to generate thermal power, Natural gas, nuclear power and other competition. The survey shows that when the installed capacity of land wind power is doubled, the cost will be reduced by 7%; the current installed cost is about 1,000 kilowatts per hour to 880,000 euros (about 1.16 million US dollars), far below the 2 million in 1984 EUR.

At the same time, continuous technological innovation has also led to a rapid increase in power generation efficiency. In addition, overall operating and maintenance costs have also been gradually reduced due to technological maturity. It is estimated that by 2016, the total cost of land-based wind power generation will be reduced to 52 Euros per hour and 52 Euros. If the average cost of coal-fired power is currently at an average cost of 46 Euros per hour, the difference is not significant. What's more, if the carbon emission factors are taken into consideration, the competitiveness of wind power generation will be very high.