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The shortage of supply and downstream demand increased the long-term price of polysilicon to two years. The new high was affected by the earthquake in Japan and the high shipment of photovoltaic cells. At present, the unit price of solar-grade polysilicon has reached 79 US dollars/kg. However, if the Italian electricity price subsidy is cut in the second half of this year and the polysilicon plant is expanded in time, the long-term and spot prices of polysilicon are expected to fall. Polysilicon prices rose. Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported on the 23rd that polysilicon prices reached a new high in the past two years, at $79/kg. Since the second half of last year, polysilicon prices have continued to rise. The spot market price of polysilicon is also climbing. In September last year, the spot price was about $85/kg, up 40% from the previous March. On March 20 this year, the spot price was $93/kg. A senior executive of polysilicon production explained that polysilicon prices have continued to rise, which is directly related to Chinese government policies, the Japanese earthquake and increased downstream demand. On July 3, 2009, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Ministry of Commerce and other five ministries jointly issued the "Announcement on Adjusting the Catalogue of Imported Waste Management". The import of some silicon materials has been restricted, so the downstream enterprises of photovoltaics can only be processed into silicon wafers and photovoltaic cells by relying on the normal domestic and foreign sources of silicon materials. In addition, the earthquake in Japan has caused a certain shortage of polysilicon at home and abroad. Photovoltaic industry analyst Yang Yuxia told the "First Financial Daily" that two polysilicon companies such as Japan's SUMCO and NSTECK were discontinued due to the earthquake, and Taiwan's AU Optronics' polysilicon plants in Sendai and Sima are also affected by the disaster. Japan's polysilicon production ranks third in the world, so it will definitely bring problems to the current polysilicon supply. According to the analysis of Guojin Securities ( 15.94 , 0.06 , 0.38% ) , global installed capacity will increase by more than 30% in 2011, reaching 18G watts. This will also allow polysilicon to have stable demand this year. Insufficient capacity in China In addition, some companies are interested in controlling production, and may also be the reason for the rise in polysilicon prices. Zou Hui, a researcher at Orient Securities, pointed out that China imported about 40,000 tons of polysilicon from imported and local properties last year. “Although the production capacity of some factories has been significantly expanded, the output increase is not fast. For example, the output of Jiangxi Saiwei may increase by 2,000 tons this year, and the proportion of Sichuan Xinguang Silicon Industry and Yongxiang Polysilicon will increase by 10% to 20%. %, about 100 to 200 tons. If only GCL-Poly (03800.HK) is raised by about 3,000 tons during the year, it will not be able to meet the supply in the Chinese market.†Yang Xiaoxia also said that polysilicon enterprises enjoy higher gross profit margin and net profit. Rate, polysilicon prices will also have room to fall. In the fourth quarter of last year, GCL-Poly, the largest polysilicon company in China, had a net profit margin of 27.74% and 23.76%. However, the net profit margin of downstream wafer companies LDK was only 16.21% and 11.81%. Some PV companies have a net profit margin of only 10% or even lower. "If some polysilicon companies raise the price very high, they will also be collectively protested by downstream companies. The latter can abandon some upstream companies that sell only spot and are overpriced by signing long orders. Because some silicon The film company has felt that its processing gross profit is too low. Now it only performs initial processing, that is, directly processing the silicon wafer into silicon ingots, allowing other companies to slice, which will save a lot of labor, logistics and other costs." Yang Xixia said.