Some opinions on domestic aluminum industry chain

Aluminum has been in the shadow of predicament for many times. In order to reduce costs, it is always going upstream. However, this also poses a problem that the technology cannot develop. Therefore, there is a contradiction in the development of aluminum plants. Upward technology is not supported and the cost is high.

Since the beginning of this year, the electrolytic aluminum industry chain in China has been surging, end-consumer spending has declined, aluminum prices have also been difficult to reach August highs, and short-term demand contraction will cause aluminum prices to continue to maintain the low level below the cost line, with medium and long-term demand. Under the premise of stable growth, uncertainties mainly come from the supply side. Among them, the new production capacity in the west, power production cuts in the southwest, and the NDRC's second increase in sales price during the year and the supply of bauxite are controlled by people, etc., have added many variables to the future development of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry. In response to these hot issues, research conducted by the Xinhu ** Research Institute on the upstream and downstream links of the aluminum industry chain in various regions of the country shows that there are still many problems in the construction and production of new production capacity in the west, and the impact on the mainland market will also be With a gradual and long-term process, the release of new production capacity in the short term is difficult to achieve, while the reduction in output caused by the electric power shortage in the southwest is not significant. In terms of comprehensive consumption and supply, the aluminum market will generally maintain a loose balance in the next 4-5 years. In the absence of the ability to deal with the risk of falling product prices, the integration of the aluminum industry has become inevitable.

If the aluminum market is still a loosely balanced period in four to five years, the aluminum industry may have to make some adjustments.