Abstract On the morning of October 7th, local time, China Machine Tool Industry Association held a press conference at the EMOMILANO2015 exhibition. Chen Huiren, executive director and secretary general of China Machine Tool Industry Association, Wang Liming, executive vice president and China International Exhibition...
On the morning of October 7th local time, China Machine Tool Industry Association held a press conference at EMO MILANO 2015. Chen Yiren, executive director and secretary general of China Machine Tool Industry Association, Wang Liming, executive vice president and China International Exhibition Center Group Corporation General Manager He Cailong attended the meeting. Nearly 70 people from machine tool associations or agencies around the world, media reporters, user representatives and members of the China Machine Tool Industry Association went to the EMO delegation. Chen Huiren made a press release.
Chen Huiren introduced the main issues such as the Chinese economy, the Chinese machine tool consumer market and the preparations for the 9th China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition (CCMT2016). He pointed out that it is necessary to understand and judge the trend of the Chinese economy with a comprehensive, rational, objective attitude and strategic vision. China's economic downward pressure is indeed large, and it faces many difficulties, but it still maintains a reasonable operating range; the problems in the Chinese economy are problems in the process of reform and adjustment, so it is a problem in progress and a temporary problem.

Regarding the basic characteristics of the changes in China's machine tool consumer market, Chen Huiren pointed out that the Chinese machine tool market generally showed significant features of reduced demand and structural upgrading, and relatively less affected imported machine tools. At the same time, the decline in the total demand for China's machine tool consumer market is phased. As China's economic restructuring continues to deepen, it will effectively release the long-term growth potential of China's machine tool consumer market.

Speaking of the CCMT2016 Machine Tool Exhibition, Chen Huiren introduced the history of CCMT and the achievements of the new upgrade of CCMT2014, and emphasized that CCMT2016 will continue to promote the “internationalization, specialization and informationization” upgrade process, and will be in many aspects. New upgrades: CCMT2016 will occupy 10 official pavilions of Shanghai New International Expo Center, with an exhibition area of ​​120,000 square meters, an increase of 20% over the previous exhibition; overseas exhibitors will exhibit more than 40% of the exhibition area, international level It will be further improved; more information technology will be used to provide more convenient services for the participants of the exhibition, and so on.

At the press conference, CCMT2016 exhibition videos, which were carefully planned and produced by the organizers of the exhibition, were also broadcasted for the first time. The theme of the exhibition was comprehensively and profoundly explained: the new environment, the new pattern and the new work, which made the guests have more CCMT exhibitions. A clearer understanding.

Related reading: Main contents of the press conference of China Machine Tool Industry Association 1. About the Chinese economy
China is the second largest economy in the world, and its economic aggregate has exceeded 10 trillion US dollars since 2014. Especially after the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese government implemented a large-scale economic stimulus plan (4 trillion yuan), which drove the Chinese economy to quickly emerge from the crisis and maintain rapid growth by expanding domestic demand. It must be pointed out that the growth of China's domestic demand formed by China's economic stimulus plan has objectively and strongly supported the global economy, avoiding the deepening economic recession of the world's major economies, and contributing more than 50% to global economic growth. Even after China's economic growth slowed down significantly, in 2013, China's contribution to global economic growth still reached nearly 30%.

In view of China's increasingly significant impact on the global economy, the changes in China's economy have received increasing attention worldwide.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Caixin Net
Figure 1, Figure 2, and Figure 3 show the changes in several Chinese economic indicators that have been closely related to the Chinese machine tool consumer market in recent years. It can be seen that since 2012, China's economy has entered a period of medium-to-high-speed growth from long-term high-speed growth, and overall it has continued to decline.

In the first half of this year, China’s economy slowed further, and GDP growth rate fell to 7%, especially since the stock market fell in mid-June and the reform of the central parity rate mechanism for the RMB-dollar exchange rate started in August and the corresponding RMB depreciation, causing the world The general concern about the Chinese economy once affected the global capital market's large fluctuations.

How to understand the current situation of the Chinese economy? How to judge the future of China's economy? It has become one of the focuses of attention and debate in the global economic community.

We believe that we must understand and judge the Chinese economy with a comprehensive, rational, objective attitude and strategic vision. From this perspective, we have the following main understanding of the Chinese economy:
· China’s economic downside pressure is indeed large, and it faces many difficulties, but it remains in a reasonable operating range;
· The problems in the Chinese economy are problems that arise during the reform and adjustment process. Therefore, they are problems in the process of advancement and temporary problems.
· Observing the Chinese economy must have a strategic vision. As President Xi recently stated, it depends on whether the direction is correct, whether the power is strong, and whether the potential is abundant.

To illustrate the above, I will provide you with the following sets of data:
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Figure 4 shows the employment and household income in China since last year. It can be seen from the chart that although the economy slowed further in the first half of this year, the employment situation remained stable. In the first half of this year, the actual employment was 7.18 million, and 72% of the annual target was achieved. It can also be seen from the chart that although the growth rate of per capita disposable income is declining, by the end of the second quarter of this year, the figure still reached 9%, which continued to be higher than the GDP growth rate (7%). Ensuring employment and income growth of residents is the fundamental starting point and foothold for economic development. Therefore, it is also one of the bottom lines of China's macroeconomic regulation and control. Although GDP growth has slowed further, the good performance of employment and household income is the comprehensive reform of the Chinese economy. Structural adjustment provides sufficient floor gas.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Please look at another set of data. Figure 5 shows the changes in the contribution rate of investment, consumption and exports to GDP growth over the past 10 years. It can be seen that before 2008, China's economic growth performance was jointly promoted by the “troika”, and the contribution rate of investment, consumption and exports to GDP growth remained basically balanced; in 2009, due to the impact of the global financial crisis and China's large-scale The effect of the stimulus plan, the economic growth momentum is a serious structural imbalance, and the contribution rate of investment to economic growth reached a record 87.6%! And the contribution rate of exports to economic growth has reached a record of -37.4%! Since 2010, due to the large-scale decline in global market demand and the weakening of China's export competitiveness, China's economic growth has actually been manifested by the “two-horse driving” model of investment and consumption. We have noticed that since 2011, consumption has replaced investment as the first driving force for China's economic growth. In the first half of this year, this number has reached 60%! This is a situation that has never been seen for a long time, and this situation is the main goal pursued by China's economic restructuring, that is, to achieve an economic growth model that relies mainly on consumption.

It is not difficult to conclude that China's active economic restructuring has slowed down to a certain extent, but it has begun to gradually optimize the economic structure. In other words, we have exchanged the hope of a sustained and healthy economic development in the long-term with the appropriate slowdown in economic growth. This will not only be of great significance to the future of the Chinese economy, but will also have a positive impact on the global economy.

Speaking of the Chinese economy, we must not introduce the recent changes in China's stock market and foreign exchange market, because this is the main cause of widespread concern about the Chinese economy.
Source: China Securities Regulatory Commission
First of all, the stock market. From March to June this year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 70%, and the stock market bubble accumulated rapidly. Figure 6 shows the changes in the second and third quarters of the Shanghai Composite Index. It is seen from the chart that since mid-June, the stock market has undergone three rounds of adjustments, of which the first two rounds of adjustment did not cause international influence, but the third round in late August. Adjustments have had a global impact. The Chinese government has taken effective measures in a timely manner to provide liquidity to the market through various channels and prevent systemic financial risks from occurring. By the beginning of September, the stock market adjustment has been roughly in place, and it has entered the stage of self-repair and self-adjustment.

Let's talk about foreign exchange markets. On August 11, the People's Bank of China announced the reform of the quotation mechanism for the renminbi against the US dollar exchange rate, which opened a new round of exchange rate reform in China. During the period, the RMB exchange rate faced a large depreciation pressure, but it has gradually stabilized. On September 17, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that the pressure on RMB depreciation has been basically released, which indicates that the new exchange reform has come to an end. Figure 7 shows the changes in the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar in the third quarter of this year, which also shows the changes in the exchange rate of the RMB against the Euro.
Source: State Administration of Foreign Exchange
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang attended the Summer Davos Forum in Dalian, China last month. On the one hand, he did not confess the current difficulties facing the Chinese economy, and on the other hand, he is full of confidence in the Chinese economy. He pointed out that "in recent years, despite the downward pressure on the economy, China has no over-currency currency and has not engaged in large-scale stimulus, which leaves room for further adjustment." "The tools in China's innovation macro-control policy toolbox also There are quite a few." "Once the economy has the potential to slip out of a reasonable range, we have enough capacity to deal with it." "The Chinese economy will not have a 'hard landing', which is not empty talk."

2. About China's machine tool consumer market (1) Overall market situation
Source: China Machine Tool Industry Association
Figure 9: Main directions for the upgrade of demand structure
Source: China Machine Tool Industry Association
Affected by the rebalancing of the global economy, especially China's economic restructuring and slowdown in growth, China's machine tool consumer market has undergone significant changes in recent years. The basic characteristics of change are manifested in two aspects. On the one hand, the total market demand has decreased significantly. Among them, the demand for low-grade homogenization products and major machine tool products has dropped significantly. Figure 8 reflects the above trend. On the other hand, it is characterized by a rapid upgrade of the market demand structure. The main direction of the upgrade is the automation package, customization and general shift upgrade (Figure 9). Among them, the market demand for automation equipment is particularly significant, which is not only due to the upgrading demand of China's machine tool users, but also due to the rapid increase of labor costs in China and the obvious changes in the relationship between labor supply and demand. Figure 10 reflects the changes in the numerical control rate of China's machine tool manufacturing industry in recent years (in terms of output value). It can be seen that in the four years of the significant reduction in the total demand for machine tool consumption in China, the output of China's machine tool manufacturing industry The numerical control rate is also rapidly optimized. Compared with 2011, the data increased by 11.1% in 2014, which reflects the characteristics of the general shifting upgrade in China's machine tool consumer market.

Regarding the basic characteristics of the changes in China's machine tool consumer market, we also want to make the following points: First, because of the decline in market demand, the most significant performance is the low-grade homogenization products, which are mostly manufactured by local Chinese companies. Therefore, Chinese machine tools The impact and impact of the manufacturing industry is even greater. Relatively speaking, imported machine tools are less affected, especially due to the upgrading of market demand structure, the comparative advantage of imported machine tools has been expanded to some extent. Second, although the total demand for China's machine tool consumer market is declining, China is still the world's largest machine tool consumer, the largest machine tool importer and the main force of international trade. In 2014, China's total machine tool consumption reached US$31.8 billion, accounting for 42.1% of global consumption. Machine tool imports reached US$10.8 billion, accounting for 29.8% of the world's total. Machine tool trade volume reached US$14.2 billion, accounting for 18.1% of global trade. . Finally, the decline in the total demand for China's machine tool consumer market is phased. In a sense, this is a reasonable price for the implementation of economic restructuring. As China's economic restructuring continues, it will be effectively released. The long-term growth potential of China's machine tool consumer market. Although China's economy is already large, China is still a developing country. China's new industrialization, informationization, urbanization and agricultural modernization still have a long way to go. This means that China's machine tool consumer market still has a long-term Growth potential and huge room for growth.

In summary, we have reason to have confidence in the long-term development of China's machine tool consumer market.

(2) Machine tool imports
Source: China Customs
Figure 11 shows the year-on-year changes in the growth rate of China's metal processing machine tool imports. It can be seen that the growth rate of machine tool imports reached 59.8% in 2010, and continued to decline in the next three years, down to -26% in 2013. Last year, the growth rate rebounded to 7.6%, and it returned to negative growth (-15.9%) in January-July this year.
Source: China Customs
The following highlights the import situation of metal processing machine tools from January to July this year. Figure 12 shows the structural distribution of all machine tools and tools imported from January to July. It can be seen that the total import value of machine tools and tools is US$ 8.87 billion, of which the import value of metal processing machine tools (metal cutting machine tools + metal forming machine tools) is 51.6. US$100 million, accounting for 58%; import value of machine tool components and numerical control devices was US$2.11 billion, accounting for 24%; imports of cutting tools were US$790 million, accounting for 9%; imports of other products were US$1.94 billion. The proportion is 9%.

The following is a brief introduction to the import of metalworking machine tools.
Source: China Customs
Figure 13 shows the distribution of imported machine tools by product type. The data shows that the orders with larger imports are in the order of machining centers, grinding machines, special processing machines, lathes and punching and shearing machines. The import value of the above five types of machine tools is 4.11 billion US dollars. , accounting for 79.7%.
Source: China Customs
Figure 14 shows the distribution of imported machine tools according to the source of imports. The data shows that the countries and regions with large imports are in the order of Japan, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea and Italy. The total imports from the above sources reached US$4.21 billion, accounting for 81.6. %.
Source: China Customs
Figure 15 shows the distribution of metal cutting machine tools according to the source of imports. The data shows that the countries and regions with large imports are in the order of Japan, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea and Switzerland. The total imports from the above sources reached US$3.53 billion, accounting for 84.4%.
Source: China Customs
Figure 16 shows the distribution of metal forming machine tools according to the source of imports. The data shows that the countries and regions with large imports are in the order of Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Italy. The total imports from the above sources reached 730 million US dollars, accounting for 74.5%.

3. About CCMT2016
The 9th China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition (CCMT2016) will be held at Shanghai New International Expo Center on April 11-15, 2016. At present, the exhibitors' collection work is going smoothly, and other preparatory work has been fully launched.

China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition is a professional exhibition of machine tools and related products established in Shanghai in 2000. It is held every two years and has been in Shanghai (5th), Beijing (1st) and Nanjing (2). Successfully held 8 sessions. According to the initial positioning of the exhibition, the first 7 exhibitions are mainly for domestic exhibitors. Since 2014, the exhibition has moved back to Shanghai. At the same time, the organizers have re-established the development orientation of the exhibition and proposed the upgrade goal of “internationalization, specialization and informationization” of the exhibition, officially opening the international transformation of the exhibition. process. The exhibition area of ​​CCMT2014 is 100,000 square meters, attracting 910 exhibitors from 20 countries and regions around the world. Among them, 276 exhibitors from overseas, accounting for 30% of the total number of exhibitors, and the net exhibition area of ​​overseas exhibitors is 15,259 square meters, accounting for the exhibition. With a total area of ​​27%, the exhibition has reached 143,000 visitors, and the international transformation of the exhibition has achieved initial success!

CCMT2016 will continue to promote the “internationalization, specialization and informationization” upgrade process based on the previous exhibition. Compared with CCMT2014, the new progress of this exhibition is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
· The exhibition area is 120,000 square meters, an increase of 20% over the previous exhibition;
· Use the 10 official pavilions of Shanghai New International Expo Center to cancel the temporary pavilions of previous exhibitions;
· The exhibition area of ​​overseas exhibitors will exceed 40%, and the internationalization level of the exhibition will be further improved;
· Exhibitors' declaration, audience registration, information release and other exhibition management links all use information technology to provide more convenient services for the participants of the exhibition;
· Reorganized the bidding options for major supporting service providers such as transportation agents and home construction, and the competition mechanism will promote the service level of the exhibition to be significantly improved;
· Appropriate adjustments were made to the booth price and charging method, and the price difference between booths of domestic and foreign exhibitors was further narrowed, and the market principle of high quality and high price was introduced;
· Further optimize the structure of exhibits and expand the display area of ​​exhibits such as smart technology, industrial robots, and additive manufacturing;
· Further promote the professional exhibition planning, arrange the layout of the exhibition to the maximum extent according to the exhibit category, and provide convenience for the audience and buyers to visit and purchase.

At the same time, the exhibition will also hold a variety of exhibition activities to provide a full range of services for exhibitors, visitors and the media.

As we all know, as China's comprehensive reforms and structural adjustments continue to deepen, China's economic development environment is undergoing long-term positive changes. This is accompanied by the profound adjustment of the Chinese machine tool consumer market and China's machine tool industry, the old market. The pattern is changing and a new market landscape is taking shape. In response to the above changes, we need to have new ideas, so we have established the theme of CCMT2016 as “new environment, new pattern, new role”.

Welcome global exhibitors and visitors to CCMT2016, let us use CCMT2016's display and communication platform to move towards a new future.

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