National Bureau of Statistics announced in September and the third quarter of macroeconomic data on the 18th. Analysts believe that due to the slow economic recovery and domestic austerity policies, China's GDP growth rate may reach 9.2% in the third quarter, which is lower than that in the second quarter. This is the third consecutive quarter of GDP growth. From the perspective of the whole year, the economic growth rate will remain above 9%.    Economic growth slowed down slightly   The National Bureau of Statistics announced the third quarter price and other data on the 14th. The macroeconomic data released on the 18th includes GDP, industrial production, fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods. The National Information Center's Economic Forecasting Department's exclusive report released by China Securities Journal believes that China's current economy is maintaining a steady slowdown, and GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to be around 9.2%. As long as the global economy does not experience a second recession, the possibility of China's economic slowdown becoming a "hard landing" is minimal. Goldman Sachs Asian economist Song Yu said that China's GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to fall from 9.5% in the second quarter to 9.1%. From the data released in September, China's inflation level may fall in the future, but economic growth, especially foreign demand, is facing downside risks, and macroeconomic policies may begin to adjust. Analysts believe that since the GDP growth rate reached 9.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, China's GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of this year was 9.7% and 9.5%, respectively, showing a slight decline. From the current point of view, this trend may continue into the second half. According to a research report released by UBS Securities, the year-on-year growth rate of China's GDP in the third quarter of this year may slow down from 9.5% in the second quarter to 9%, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate is about 8%. Due to factors such as slower export growth, investment in infrastructure construction, and slower growth in new construction area of ​​commercial housing, China’s economic growth demand is insufficient. Analysts expect that because the secondary industry accounts for a higher proportion of China's GDP, the two show a certain degree of synchronization in the trend of change. It is roughly estimated that the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in September may fall to around 13%, which is somewhat lower than that in August. It is unlikely that the growth rate of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods will drop significantly. Macroeconomic policies may be fine-tuned as of September, China's CPI growth has fallen for two consecutive months, and some economic growth indicators have declined. Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, said that recent growth in employment, manufacturing, retail sales and auto sales in the US exceeded market expectations, which has somewhat alleviated market concerns about the overseas recession. "At present, the domestic macroeconomic policy is in the observation period, and the need for further tightening has been reduced. To prevent further decline in the total amount of money and credit, the possibility of fine-tuning the liquidity situation during the year will increase, but this does not mean a change in the tone of the monetary policy. Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shenyin Wanguo, believes that the current domestic economic downturn is mainly reflected in the external demand and real estate market. If the economy really shows a rapid decline, government investment may once again serve as a supporting force for stable growth. The economy needs to maintain a relatively tight policy tone during the transition period. China's macro policy will be stable during the year, and the overall loosening is unlikely.  

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