This year *** or about 5% appreciation

Starting from February 17, *** rose to the middle of the dollar for three consecutive trading days. On February 20th, the middle price of *** against the US dollar broke through the 6.58 mark, and rose by 150 basis points in three trading days. On February 22, the median price of *** against the US dollar was 6.5772, which was 67 basis points lower than the previous trading day, but it still did not fall back to the 6.58 mark.

Regarding the reasons for the appreciation of the renminbi, the relevant experts stated that they were mainly influenced by comprehensive factors both at home and abroad. Experts also said that the expected appreciation of the *** this year is very strong and it is expected that the magnitude of the *** appreciation this year will be about 5%.

Comprehensive factors influence

This *** appreciation was mainly influenced by the domestic and international factors.

Zhang Taowei, an associate professor at the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, said that from domestic factors, inflationary pressures still exist, especially with high commodity prices, and there is increasing pressure on imported inflation. At this time, the appreciation of *** helps to curb imported inflationary pressures. From the international situation, the recent weakness of the US dollar index has also led to a higher exchange rate.

Tian Fu**, Dr. Zhao Guoyu, said that the factors affecting the exchange rate include the gap in economic development level, capital flow, and price level, but the most direct and important thing is trade. Recently, China’s trade surplus has increased, especially for the United States’ trade surplus. It is precisely because of this incentive that the United States has recently exerted pressure on the currency to appreciate. The US Treasury Secretary Geithner has publicly stated that he believes that China cannot use monetary policy to curb inflation and must increase the exchange rate. After raising the exchange rate, the rise in import prices will be offset by the increase in exchange rates.

Year-on-year or sustained shock appreciation

From the beginning of this year, the appreciation of the *** has exceeded 0.8%, so this year will continue to maintain this trend of appreciation?

Zhang Taowei stated that there should be no doubt about the continued appreciation of the *** this year. Judging from the current situation, it is expected that the appreciation of the whole year will be around 5%. And 5% should be a relatively sensitive tipping point. If the appreciation rate is too high, domestic export enterprises and economic development will inevitably be unable to withstand tremendous pressure for appreciation. As for the specific trend, this year's *** may fluctuate from top to bottom and appear to stage higher, but there will be no long-term unilateral appreciation.

Zhao Guoyu also said that the expectation for the appreciation of the *** this year has been very strong. Although most domestic agencies predict that the magnitude of the *** appreciation this year will be around 3%, but from the current situation, it is expected to exceed 3%, may reach 5%, but the possibility of more than 5% is not likely.