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In 2008, China's stone trade can use "the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, which has seriously affected the export and domestic benefits of stone enterprises. As the world's largest exporter of stone materials, and has been the country's largest exporter of building materials for many years, China's stone trade is still not in 2008. Difficult and dangerous, standing upright and flying against the wind, trade still has a large growth compared with the previous year; the export efficiency of stone has dropped sharply, highlighting the “single digit†growth for the first time; the import stone structure has undergone significant changes, and foreign exchange expenditure has increased significantly; domestic marble deep processing The momentum has slowed down, and the industry has developed adjustment information." These words are summarized.
I. Overview of China's stone import and export trade in 2008
Due to the rapid appreciation of the renminbi in the past year, China's stone exports in 2008 were more difficult than in the previous year, but the Chinese stone industry is still defying difficulties and risks, and trade still has a large growth compared with the previous year. Import and export trade totaled nearly US$5.5 billion, an increase of 17.14% over the previous year. Of this total, exports were US$3.943 billion, an increase of 15.06% over the previous year; imports were US$1.545 billion, an increase of 22.72% over the previous year. Statistics show that China's stone industry, which is higher than the average growth rate of imports and exports in many industries, still shows vigorous vitality and vitality. However, the post-digital analysis also warns us that stone exports may have a “single digit†increase in efficiency for the first time, and the import structure has also undergone significant changes. Foreign exchange expenditure has increased significantly. The domestic marble deep processing momentum has slowed down, and the industry has developed adjustment information. .
The reporter learned from the General Administration of Customs that the past 2008 was the year when China's stone industry experienced the same hard trade as other industries in the country, especially the change in the appreciation of the renminbi. According to the industry, it is the international trade-led power. We can't earn the dollar we deserve. However, China's stone industry is still taking advantage of the situation, opening up new markets, and making full use of the national encouragement policy. It still exported 3.943 billion US dollars and 28.33 million tons of stone materials, an increase of 15.10% and 2.57% respectively over the previous year. The import of stone was 1.545 billion US dollars and 8.19 million tons, which also increased by 22.72% and 13.28% respectively over the previous year. The total value of imports and exports was 5.488 billion US dollars and 36.52 million tons, which also increased by 17.14% and 4.82% respectively compared with the previous year. The growth of trade in the stone industry has driven the stability and development of the relevant industrial chain to a certain extent, and has also enabled China to obtain scarce decorative stone varieties. It can be said that the use of international resources provides a wealth of decoration and decoration materials for China's basic construction industry and decoration industry.
However, careful analysis of the data is not difficult to find, in the context of the international "financial ice age", any industry will inevitably encounter severe cold, especially the impact of exchange rates in trade. For the stone industry, it means that in the past year, the same amount of products were exported, and about 11% of foreign exchange was obtained. (The RMB has appreciated by about 11% in a year, and has increased by about 20% since 2005. ). In turn, the exchange of foreign exchange for domestic renminbi is also relatively reduced, making the domestic benefits of enterprises further low. If exporting from the whole industry, using the 15.06% of the 2008 export value growth data to offset the 11% loss due to exchange rate changes, stone exports for the first time highlight the 4% "single digit" growth of benefits - In a word, the export of the US dollar is much more, but the RMB that is replaced by domestic consumption is not much or reduced, and the economic benefits calculated by the enterprise in RMB are not ideal. This is also the most direct reason for the country's recent rapid recovery of export tax rebates.
The imported data showed that the use of foreign exchange was 1.545 billion U.S. dollars, a net increase of 287 million U.S. dollars over the previous year. The large-scale use of remittances was mainly used on imported marble plates. This was due to exchange rate changes and imports of marble plates in US dollars. It is more cost-effective to process than imported marble blocks. However, to a certain extent, this is also one of the reasons for the lack of construction of domestic marble sheet production plants and the suspension of production by some enterprises. In the past years, China has been mainly engaged in importing marble blocks, plates and granite blocks. Although there has been no fundamental change, the imported plates have grown considerably (the last year was only imported marble blocks). /5), while the import volume and amount of marble slabs in 2008 was almost 1:1 with imported marble blocks, which will definitely have an impact on related companies, and may also cause major adjustments in the production structure of the industry products.
2. Statistics and structural analysis of China's stone export value in 2008
In 2008, there was no new and big change in the value and structure of China's stone exports compared with the previous year. Only in the original quantity and value, the products increased slightly, making the total annual value increase. Specific to the exporting countries and the amount and the previous year have not changed much, still mainly concentrated in Japan, South Korea, the United States, Kazakhstan and several traditional countries in Europe. As for the sorting of consumption in various countries, there is no more practical significance. Because a project can add millions of dollars. Russia has also increased in number this year, but it will not affect the overall structure. The sandstone products that were concerned about the previous year still occupy the absolute number of exports of the stone industry throughout the year, which is still caused by the state's export restriction policy. Therefore, next year will be removed from the statistical summary. In 2008, China's stone export value and structure did not change much, so it will not be repeated.
The biggest worry now is that the financial crisis in the United States and Europe has just begun to affect China's stone exports. The real big impact has not yet arrived. How will the future time affect China's stone exports? And how big is this impact? I can't help but explain a little more about these issues.
1. The worst result on the export of stone. That is to say, the prevention mechanism of the financial system in Europe and the United States has completely failed, and its industrial and commercial chain has broken. A crisis of consumer confidence will be generated, manifested by reduced consumption, bankruptcy, and unemployment – ​​consumption is reduced again. The reduction in consumption directly impacts China’s foreign trade. From China's crude trade situation, we can know how close China's foreign trade is to Europe and the United States. China's current manufacturing industry is generally over-produced. In China's entire GPT, our country only consumes 35%, and the entire manufacturing industry accounts for 70% of the country's GPT, which means that 35% of manufacturing capacity. Need to be consumed through exports. However, due to its outward-looking characteristics, China's stone industry relies on foreign consumption coefficient. Once the foreign chain breaks, the impact on the Chinese stone industry is not only half of the capacity, but also bigger. If foreign countries can't absorb half of our stone industry's production capacity, the annual trade of 5 to 6 billion US dollars in the stone industry will disappear, which will cause half of China's stone industry enterprises, especially those in Fujian, Guangdong and Shandong stone export provinces, to fall into crisis. .
2. Explain the impact on stone exports from a good perspective. Even if Europe and the United States succeeded in saving the market. However, its consumption pattern has definitely changed. This is the amount of consumption, and it is no longer in debt consumption. Needless to say, the reduction in consumption in Europe. From the United States alone, the annual consumption will be reduced by 700 billion US dollars. What is the concept? China’s annual exports are more than $1 trillion. Specific to the stone export, it is very pessimistic.
3. The transfer of China's stone export market has not formed a pull on value-added. Under the financial crisis last year, many companies hoped to open up the Middle East, Far East, Central Asia, Russia and other markets in order to gain new business opportunities. However, from the 2008 export data, they have not achieved such a goal. Among them, the sharp drop in oil prices has led to a sharp drop in demand. Therefore, it is still the traditional country of Chinese exports that supported the increase in exports last year. In this case, the hardship of Chinese stone exports is still behind.
4. It is important to note here that the author has always stressed that the ratio of China's exports to domestic consumption is 1:10. According to the latest information, that is, half of the capacity mentioned above is used for export, and half of domestic consumption is explained. In 2008, it exported nearly $4 billion, plus domestic consumption of $100 million, plus appropriate stocks. The crude stone production capacity of the country is between 8 and 9 billion US dollars. That is, the look of 60 billion yuan. If the foreign trade is not smooth, these tens of billions of products will be squeezed into the domestic market. There is no small pressure on domestic demand. From this point of view, an industry that relies too much on the international market has considerable risks. The result can only be a "survival of the fittest" that is painful through the market.
3. Statistics and structural analysis of China's stone import value in 2008
From the statistics and structural analysis of the value of stone imports in the middle of 2008, imports of 1.545 billion US dollars and 8.19 million tons, an increase of 22.72% and 13.28% respectively over the previous year. Among them, imported marble products amounted to US$861 million and 8.61 million tons, both of which increased significantly compared with the previous year. Among them, the imported materials are 425 million US dollars and the plate is 436 million yuan. From the data point of view, the import structure has undergone profound changes, that is, the finished sheet has been further increased, from 5:1 imported from marble blocks and marble plates in the previous year to 1:1 in 2008. The most important performance is in use. The exchange volume has further increased. In the case of significant changes in exports and exchange rates, that is, more than 20% for many years, and finally lowered to 15% in 2008; the amount of exchanges increased to 22.72%. Explain that when the appreciation of the renminbi is favorable for imports, exchange rate leverage plays a positive role in regulation. Experts in the stone industry also admit that this phenomenon will not last for a long time. When it comes to a timer, the RMB must be devalued when it is not conducive to exports. That is to say, in 2009, there may be a phenomenon in which the growth of the exchange rate is slowed down. The decline in purchasing power in the European and American markets will have a more direct impact on stone imports in 2009. In addition, Turkey's marble, Brazil's granite exports to China are in the hundreds of millions of dollars, a rapid growth; plus the traditional India, Egypt, Iran, Italy, Portugal, Spain and other countries to increase imports to China, making 2008 China has indeed got a good and cheap world stone variety.
This is why the Chinese stone trade in 2009 is still a hard and hard work.
Abstract In 2008, China's stone trade can use "the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, which has seriously affected the export and domestic benefits of stone enterprises. As the world's largest exporter of stone materials, and has been the country's largest exporter of building materials for many years, the 2008 China...