Abstract According to the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Operational Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China and the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released the 2012 China Industrial Economic Operation Report. Since the beginning of this year, in the face of complex and ever-changing domestic and international situations, various regions and regions...
According to the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Operational Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China and the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released the 2012 China Industrial Economic Operation Report.
Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the complicated and ever-changing domestic and international situation, all localities and departments have focused on stabilizing growth, restructuring, and promoting transformation in accordance with the overall tone of the work of the central government, striving to stabilize the implementation of relevant policies and measures, and efforts to alleviate the shrinking of external demand. As a result of the adverse effects of the economic downturn, the overall operation of the industrial economy has progressed from slow to moderate to stable and recovery, and industrial restructuring has steadily advanced.
I. Basic Situation of Industrial Economic Operation in 2012 <br> According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year, of which 11.6% in the first quarter and 9.5% in the second quarter. The quarter increased by 9.1%, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter was close to 10%. In terms of light and heavy industries, light industry grew by 10.2% and heavy industry by 9.8%. It is expected that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by about 10% over the previous year.
The economic operation in 2012 showed the following characteristics:
The industrial economy has stabilized and stabilized. Although the industrial growth rate has shown a trend of slowing down quarter by quarter since the second half of last year, with the effect of the central steady growth policy, the positive changes have further increased since the second half of the year, and the industrial growth rate has risen month by month. . In August, the monthly growth rate of industrial added value fell to 8.9% since 2010, and increased by 9.2%, 9.6% and 10.1% in September, October and November respectively. The monthly growth rate of industrial added value above designated size accelerated month by month after July, and increased by 0.76%, 0.84%, 0.83% and 0.86% respectively in August, September, October and November. The industrial economy showed a stable and rebounding trend.
The internal demand pulling action is significantly enhanced. Since the beginning of this year, the world economic recovery has been weak, and the continued shrinkage of external demand has led to a significant decline in the growth rate of China's industrial exports. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by only 6.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 10.5 percentage points year-on-year. In the first, second and third quarters, it increased by 7.4%, 6.8% and 3.5% respectively. In October and November, it increased by 5.4% and 12.2% respectively. The growth rate showed a quarterly slowdown. The rebound in export growth in November was mainly affected by The impact of the low base in the same period last year. Under the situation that external demand continues to be sluggish, domestic demand is growing steadily, and the pulling effect on industrial growth is significantly enhanced. From January to November, the total retail sales of urban fixed assets and social consumer goods increased by 20.7% and 14.2% respectively (after deducting the actual increase of 12% from the price factor). Despite the slow growth of exports, the sales value of industrial enterprises above designated size remained unchanged from the same period of last year. 12.5% ​​growth rate.
Industrial restructuring has progressed steadily. From January to November, the added value of high-tech industries increased by 11.8% year-on-year, which was 1.8 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size. Planning and implementation of a new generation of information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, energy conservation and new energy vehicles. Significant progress has been made in mergers and acquisitions in key industries. Most of the 2,761 backward production lines listed in the list of eliminated backward production capacity have been shut down, and industrial transfer has been promoted in an orderly manner. The situation of industrial energy conservation and emission reduction has further improved, and the energy consumption of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size has decreased more than expected.
The business situation of the company began to improve. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the profits of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached a profit of 4.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. The first time during the year, the company achieved positive growth, and the tax paid increased by 8.5% year-on-year. 5.46%, down 0.53 percentage points year-on-year, but up 0.1 percentage point over the previous three quarters; the average number of employees was 90.17 million, up 1% year-on-year.
The operation in the eastern region is improving, and the pulling effect in the central and western regions is increasing. From January to November, the industrial added value of the eastern, central and western regions increased by 8.7%, 11.4% and 12.8% respectively. In the two months of October and November, the average growth rate of industrial added value in the eastern, central and western regions was 8.7%, 10.8% and 13%, respectively, which was 0.5, 1.2 and 1.3 percentage points faster than the third quarter. Among the proportion of industrial added value above all scales, the central and western regions rose to 25.2% and 18.2% respectively. From January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the eastern and central regions decreased from 1.5% and 1.3% in the first three quarters to 0.8% and 0.2% respectively, and the western region decreased by 0.3%. The decline was narrower than the previous three quarters. Percentage points.
The effect of steady growth policy has gradually emerged. The growth rate of industrial electricity has rebounded significantly. According to the statistics of the China Electricity Council, from January to November, industrial electricity consumption increased by 3.4% year-on-year. The monthly growth rate only increased by 0.9% from September, and rose to 5.9% and 7% in October and November. The situation of the home appliance market is promising. From January to November, the sales of home appliances to the countryside (excluding Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, and Qingdao) totaled 74.93 million units, achieving sales of 2013 billion yuan, up 22.2% and 18.1% year-on-year respectively. Some leading indicators show positive changes. According to the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index has rebounded for three consecutive months since September, after rising for four consecutive months, reaching 50.6% in November, and the new index index for sub-indicators rose. To 51.2%, which is above the critical point for two consecutive months, the continuous improvement of the leading indicators indicates that the manufacturing industry is in the process of stabilization and recovery.
Overall, the current overall situation of China's economic development is good. In the context of the complicated international situation and the continued sluggish external demand, through the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, timely and decisively increase the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning efforts to achieve a slow and stable economic operation, and generally weak growth with developed economies. The apparent slowdown in emerging economies is in stark contrast, and the results are hard to come by. However, we must also be aware that the difficulties facing economic development are still many, the foundation for stabilization is still not stable, and there are still many difficulties and challenges in achieving stable industrial growth. First, the impact of shrinking external demand is difficult to fundamentally reverse in the short term, and the export situation of industrial products is grim. In July and August, China’s total foreign trade exports only increased by 1% and 2.7% year-on-year. Although the growth rate in September and October rose to 9.9% and 11.6%, it fell back to 2.9% in November. Some labor-intensive industries and orders have a tendency to shift to neighboring countries. Some high-end export industries are facing pressure from developed countries, and the difficulty of stable growth in future exports is still very difficult. Second, due to factors such as the economic downturn and the decline in corporate profitability, the investment intensity of the manufacturing industry declined. As the growth rate of fixed asset investment rebounded overall, the cumulative growth rate of industrial investment declined for five consecutive months, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment also appeared. It fell for 4 consecutive months. From January to November, industrial investment was 13.9 trillion yuan (42.7% of fixed assets investment), up 21.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.7 percentage points over the first half of the year; among them, manufacturing investment was 11.3 trillion yuan (accounting for 81.3 of industrial investment). %), up 22.8% year-on-year, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous 7 months. Third, business operations are still difficult. Although some indicators have improved in the near future, the market demand growth has not changed significantly, production costs remain high, corporate profits continue to decrease, and losses increase. From January to October, the company's loss was 15%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year. The loss of loss-making enterprises increased by 50.1% year-on-year; the cost per 100 yuan of main business income increased by 0.28 yuan year-on-year, and financial expenses increased by 28.6% year-on-year. In the same period, the main business income increased by 18.3 percentage points, and the current assets turnover rate decreased by 0.1 times per year. Fourth, the problem of overcapacity in some industries is outstanding. The problems of “high production capacity, high inventory, high cost, low demand, low price and low efficiency” are plaguing the healthy development of the industry. At present, China's steelmaking capacity exceeds 900 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is only 72%; cement production capacity is close to 3 billion tons, exceeding the demand target of 2.5 billion tons in 2015. Affected by exports, 58 polysilicon production companies are currently under construction. The problem of overcapacity has led to an accelerated decline in the prices of these industries, and the overall operating conditions have deteriorated.
Second, the situation facing industrial development in 2013 <br> Next year, China's economic development has many favorable conditions and positive factors. The victory of the party’s 18th National Congress greatly encouraged and strengthened the confidence and determination of the entire party and the people throughout the country to build socialism with Chinese characteristics. Industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization will be further promoted, which will provide a broad market space for expanding domestic demand and developing the real economy. Accelerating the transformation of innovation, structural adjustment and development mode will continuously enhance the coordination and sustainability of economic development. Persistently promoting reform and opening up will effectively stimulate the vitality and motivation of economic development. However, it should also be noted that the foreign economic situation will remain complicated next year, the uncertainties of instability will continue to increase, and the economy will transition from high-speed growth to moderately steady growth. The overall adjustment is in a phased manner, maintaining stable and rapid economic development and overall improvement. Great efforts must be made in the quality and efficiency of industrial development.
Expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, is a solid foundation for maintaining sustained and healthy economic development. From January to November, the actual growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods minus the price factor was 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the first half and the first three quarters respectively; the actual growth rate in November was 13.6%, which was more than 12% for six consecutive months. growth of. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 105.5%, of which consumption demand was 55%. The driving force for economic growth exceeded investment for the first time since 2006. The rapid growth of residents' income levels, the good situation of the job market and the introduction of income distribution reform plans will lay a good foundation for the sustained and steady growth of household consumption. In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 9.8% deducted from the price factor, and the per capita cash income of rural residents actually increased by 12.3%, which was significantly higher than the growth rate of GDP in the first three quarters. Eighteen provinces and cities across the country have raised the minimum wage, with an average increase of 19.4%. Commercial housing sales began to turn around, and the decline in sales area narrowed month by month. In November, it turned positive for the first time. It increased 2.4% in January-November. The improvement in sales of commercial housing will drive home appliances, furniture, construction and decoration. Retail sales of goods. The implementation of various policies and measures to promote consumption, such as energy-saving products and new energy vehicles, will further stimulate consumer demand. However, the institutional and structural problems that restrict China's household consumption expenditure are difficult to completely eliminate in the short term. It will take time to promote the income distribution reform plan, and the expansion of consumption capacity requires a process. It is necessary to focus on cultivating new consumer formats, especially for consumption booms such as information consumption that are growing rapidly and have great potential. It is necessary to increase policy support and guidance to accelerate the expansion of spending power.
Maintaining stable investment growth is a key force driving economic growth. From January to November, in the scale of fixed assets investment of the whole society, the total investment growth rate of newly started projects reached 28.8%, and it rebounded for seven consecutive months, reflecting that the future investment growth momentum is continuing to strengthen. 2013 is an important year for the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. Under the policy of “stable growth”, a number of major projects will accelerate the start-up and follow-up, and the role of investment in industrial growth will continue to emerge. But at the same time, we must also see that in the context of the continuation of real estate regulation and control policies, real estate investment still lacks the momentum to rebound. Affected by the sluggish export and the overcapacity in some areas, the rapid recovery of manufacturing investment is insufficient. From the micro level, under the double squeeze of market demand and rising comprehensive costs, the profit level of enterprises has fallen sharply. Some industries have also experienced serious losses, the investment capacity of enterprises has declined, and the willingness of private capital to invest in the real economy is insufficient. On the whole, next year's investment is expected to achieve steady growth on the basis of low growth rate this year, and play a key role in promoting economic growth. On the one hand, we must choose the right direction, optimize the structure, and improve the quality and efficiency of investment. On the other hand, we must further increase and guide private investment.
The prospect of growth in external demand remains an uncertain factor affecting the smooth operation of the economy in the coming period. The recovery of the world economy will be a long and difficult process. The deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis continues to emerge. The global economic recovery is still fragile in 2013. Recently, under the stimulus of a new round of loose monetary policy in various countries, the world economic situation has improved. In November, the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 49.7% from 48.8% in October, the highest since June this year. value. But overall, the EU and Japan's continued economic downturn and the slowdown in the growth of emerging economies, global economic and financial risks continue to increase, trade protectionism continues to rise, and the global economic recovery is unlikely to be smooth. In October, the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth rate in 2013 from 3.9% expected in July to 3.6%, and warned the global economy of the risk of falling into recession again. In addition, from the perspective of China's own foreign trade situation, the competitive advantage of traditional industrial products exports is gradually weakening. In recent years, the cost of labor in China has risen rapidly. From 2006 to 2011, the average nominal wage of employed persons in China's manufacturing urban units has doubled, with an average annual growth rate of 15%. Compared with Southeast Asian countries, China's labor costs have changed from a low of 10 years ago to a high level. Recently, some labor-intensive industries have increased their momentum to neighboring countries. The number of overseas buyers attending the 112th Canton Fair in October and the export turnover decreased by 10.3% and 9.3% respectively compared with the previous Canton Fair, indicating that China's export situation is still grim in the future.
Generally speaking, the fundamentals of China's industrial economic development next year are good, and there is still a large space for development and potential. However, the domestic and international economic situation is still complicated, and uncertainties and instability factors are increasing. The continued shrinking of external demand and the slowdown in domestic demand growth overlap, the lack of effective demand and the overcapacity conflict, long-term problems and short-term difficulties are intertwined, the situation is still not optimistic.
III. Operational situation and development trend of key industries <br> Under the positive effect of a series of policy measures of steady growth of the central government, the growth of raw material industrial production has rebounded, the operating trend of the consumer goods industry has stabilized, and the steady state of electronic manufacturing enterprises has been obvious; Due to the long production cycle and difficult adjustment, the equipment manufacturing industry has not yet got rid of the downward pressure. From the overall operating situation of various industries, the positive changes since the third quarter have further increased, and the growth rate of some major indicators of economic operation has rebounded to varying degrees. If the current operating situation can be maintained, it is expected that the operating conditions of most industries will have different degrees in 2013. improve.
Raw material industry. Since the beginning of this year, due to factors such as the regulation of the real estate market and the slowdown of infrastructure investment, the growth rate of the raw material industry has continued the downward trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The growth rate of the raw material industry slowed down in the first half of the year, but after the second quarter, with steady growth, The implementation of policies and measures to expand domestic demand has been implemented, and infrastructure investment has continued to increase. Recently, some raw material prices have risen, and raw material industrial production has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery. According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November this year, the added value of the raw materials industry increased by 10.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.3 percentage points over the same period of last year, with the first, second and third quarters increasing by 11.3%, 9.5% and 10.2 respectively. The average growth rate of %, 10 and 11 in the two months was 11.4%, showing a trend of stabilization and recovery. It is expected to increase by about 10.5% for the whole year. Next year is an important year for the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. Infrastructure investment such as railways, highways and water conservancy is expected to achieve rapid growth, but infrastructure investment expansion will also be affected to some extent by the significant decline in fiscal revenue growth this year. The constraints of government debt, the reduction of real estate regulation and the number of affordable housing projects have made the growth of real estate investment growth limited, and the investment demand of major downstream industries is difficult to increase significantly, while some overcapacity industries such as steel, cement and flat glass remain Will face greater pressure of “de-capacity”. At the same time, the resource and environmental constraints and energy conservation and emission reduction pressures of some high-energy, high-emission raw materials industries will further increase, and the fluctuations in commodity prices caused by complex foreign economic situations will also result in the operation of raw materials industries that are highly dependent on resource imports. influences. Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the growth rate of the raw material industry next year may be roughly the same as this year.
The steel industry will continue to maintain low growth and low efficiency due to insufficient effective demand and overcapacity. Since the beginning of this year, due to the impact of the domestic and international economic downturn, steel demand has slowed down markedly. The problem of overcapacity has been highlighted. Steel prices have fallen sharply, corporate profits have declined significantly, and industry operations have been difficult. From January to November, the country produced 660 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points over the same period last year. Domestic market demand is sluggish, and more than 6% of production capacity is digested by exports. From January to November, the apparent consumption of domestic crude steel was 620 million tons, up only 1.7% year-on-year, an increase of 8.5 percentage points lower than the same period of last year and 1.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate of production. The export of steel products was 54.13 million tons, up 12.7% year-on-year. Imported steel products were 13.74 million tons, down 13.5% year-on-year. The net exports of imports and exports were 40.38 million tons of crude steel, accounting for 6.1% of crude steel production. In the case of a weak domestic market, export growth has alleviated the pressure of overcapacity to a certain extent, but it has also caused more international trade friction. Steel prices continue to decline. Affected by factors such as weak market demand, concentrated production capacity, and increased homogenization of steel products, steel prices continued to fall for five consecutive months after reaching the high point of the year in early April. According to the statistics of the Iron and Steel Association, the domestic steel price index fell below 100 in the first and second weeks of September. After mid-September, the price rebounded. At the end of November, the domestic steel price index was 105.32 points, down 17.01 points from the same period of last year. 13.91%. The profit has fallen sharply. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the profit of the metallurgical industry decreased by 48.3% year-on-year (28.4% in 2011); the profit rate of the main business income was 1.68%, down 1.57 percentage points year-on-year; among them, the smelting and rolling processing industry The profit margin was only 0.99%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The loss of the enterprise was 25.7%, and the loss of the loss-making enterprise increased by 2.4 times. According to the statistics of the Iron and Steel Association, from January to October, the profits and losses of member steel companies reached a loss of 5.22 billion yuan, and the whole industry was in a state of net loss. The problem of overcapacity is difficult to understand. According to the statistics of the Iron and Steel Association, the annual production capacity of crude steel in China is 718 million tons in 2009, 800 million tons in 2010, and 863 million tons in 2011. It is expected to approach or exceed 900 million tons in 2012. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the investment in ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry in January-November has exceeded 450 billion yuan, and it is expected to form more than 50 million tons. According to relevant media reports, more than 10 blast furnaces have been put into operation in Tangshan and Handan, Hebei Province this year, with an additional capacity of more than 20 million tons. The international market has limited ability to digest. According to recent forecasts by the World Iron and Steel Association (WSA), world steel consumption will increase by 2.1% and 3.2% respectively this year and next, significantly lower than the 6.2% in 2011. In the first ten months of this year, the world's crude steel output except China's mainland fell by 0.5% year-on-year. In the case of worldwide overcapacity, the difficulty of further expanding exports will inevitably increase. The growth of domestic demand is unlikely to change significantly. Driven by the country's “steady growth” policy, infrastructure investment will increase, and the demand for steel products, especially long products, is expected to recover, and production and consumption will increase slightly. Affected by the sluggish demand of downstream steel industries such as automobiles and shipbuilding, it is difficult to significantly improve the demand for sheet metal. At the same time, due to the pressure of rising prices of raw materials such as iron ore, increased competition for homogenization of products, and severe overcapacity, it is expected that the high cost, low growth and low profit of the steel industry will continue in the next year.
Non-ferrous metal industrial production will show a steady growth trend, and the efficiency situation has improved, but the recovery momentum is still insufficient. From January to November, the added value of the non-ferrous metals industry increased by 14% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of the same period last year. The output of ten non-ferrous metals was 33.84 million tons, up 8.4% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 1.9 percentage points over the same period of last year. The output of electrolytic copper and electrolytic aluminum increased by 7.9% and 12.3% respectively. The profit and loss situation has fallen sharply, and the aluminum smelting industry has suffered a total loss. From January to October, the profit reached 147.5 billion yuan, down 16.2%, the decline was 3.4 percentage points lower than the previous three quarters; the profit from the main business income was 3.98%, down 1.39 percentage points year-on-year; among which the profit margin of smelting and rolling processing industry It was 2.78%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the aluminum smelting industry (including alumina enterprises) had a net loss of 1.35 billion yuan; the loss of enterprises was 19.2%, and the loss of loss-making enterprises increased by 1.5 times. The direct reason for the decline in profits of non-ferrous industries is that the prices of non-ferrous metals in domestic and foreign markets have fallen, while the financial costs such as rising prices of electricity and energy and interest expenses have increased substantially. The root cause is the overcapacity of some products and the self-owned mining materials owned by enterprises. There are structural problems such as low proportion of self-provided energy sources and low value-added products with competitive advantages. The investment structure has improved. From January to November, the non-ferrous metals industry completed fixed assets investment growth of 17.7%, an increase of 14.8 percentage points year-on-year, of which smelting projects fell by 0.5%, mining and rolling processing industry investment increased by 17.9% and 41.7%. It is expected that the overall operating environment next year may be better than this year. With the acceleration of infrastructure investment, the implementation of the “12th Five-Year Plan” national strategic emerging industry development plan and the energy-saving products Huimin project, the consumption demand for non-ferrous metals, especially non-ferrous metal deep-processing products, will further increase. Under the stimulus of monetary easing policies in various countries, the price of non-ferrous metals in the international market will continue to fluctuate, but the average annual price may be better than this year, and business difficulties will be eased. However, the exit of home appliances to the countryside, the overcapacity of some low-end products, the elimination of backward production pressures and the instability of the international financial market will also constrain the development of the non-ferrous metals industry next year. Next year, the operation of the non-ferrous metals industry will be basically stable, and the structural adjustment will be further strengthened.
The operation of the building materials industry has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery. From January to November, the added value of the building materials industry increased by 11.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 8.5 percentage points year-on-year. According to the statistics of the Building Materials Industry Federation, the national cement output was 2.03 billion tons, up 6.7% year-on-year; the flat glass was 665 million weight boxes, down 6.1% year-on-year. The product structure was further optimized, and low-energy products maintained rapid growth. The output of commercial concrete and cement concrete drainage pipes, pressure pipes and poles increased by 14%, 59.6%, 14.4% and 17.6% respectively. The output of tempered glass, laminated glass and insulating glass increased by 12.8%, 8.1% and 41.9%, respectively. Yarn grew by 10.7%, and low-energy products contributed nearly half of the growth rate of the building materials industry. The decline in profits narrowed. From January to October, the profit of the building materials industry decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the decrease was 3 percentage points lower than that of January-September. The prices of cement and flat glass have shown signs of stabilization and recovery. In November, the monthly average ex-factory price of key building materials enterprises was 348 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton from October, down 10% year-on-year, and the monthly average ex-factory price of flat glass was 64.3 yuan/weight box, up 0.6 yuan/weight from October. The box has been rising for 4 consecutive months. The problem of overcapacity is outstanding. After the development of the building materials industry in the past few years, the overcapacity problems in traditional industries such as cement and flat glass have become increasingly prominent. The problem of poor production and sales is more prominent. The tasks of “destocking” and “de-capacity” are still heavy. If the real estate market does not show a significant improvement, the growth rate of production in the building materials industry next year may be roughly the same as this year, and continue to maintain a moderate growth range.
The petrochemical industry will generally show a slow and steady trend, but severe overcapacity and fluctuations in crude oil prices in the international market will affect the smooth operation of the industry. In the first half of this year, the economic growth rate of the petrochemical industry continued to fall, and the downward pressure was very high. In the third quarter, the industry economy showed a steady development trend. From January to November, the added value of the petrochemical industry increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2 percentage points over the same period of last year. The added value of the chemical industry increased by 12% year-on-year, and the growth rate in November was 13%, which accelerated growth for three consecutive months; Among the main products, the output of ethylene, caustic soda and soda ash increased by -2.6%, 4.1% and 5.5% respectively, and the growth rate dropped by 10, 11.4 and 7.4 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of last year. The industrial structure was further optimized. The output value of synthetic materials and organic chemical raw materials accounted for 22% and 16.5% of the total chemical industry, respectively, up 1.7 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year; all steel radial tire production reached 640 million, and the meridian rate reached 87.4%. Investment in technology-intensive industries has grown substantially. The investment in the chemical industry increased by about 33% in the whole year, of which the investment in synthetic materials increased by nearly 60%, the investment in chemical raw materials increased by more than 60%, and the growth of other basic chemical raw materials was close to 70%. The decline in corporate profits has narrowed. From January to October, the total profit of the petrochemical industry decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed for three consecutive months. The problem of overcapacity is outstanding. From the average utilization rate of the equipment in September this year, methanol is about 55%, caustic soda is about 75%, soda ash is about 72%, and PVC is about 60%. Some enterprises are caught in the device “starting losses, not starting work and losing money”. Awkward. Market demand will pick up next year, but it still faces greater uncertainty. It is expected that a small recovery in the real estate, construction, automobile, light industry and other industries next year will increase the market demand for some petrochemical products such as refined oil, synthetic materials and coatings. However, due to the weak international demand, high production costs and outstanding overcapacity, the economic operation of the petrochemical industry is unlikely to change significantly. At the same time, the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction is constantly increasing, and the fluctuation of international commodity prices represented by crude oil makes the petrochemical industry, which is highly dependent on resource imports, face greater uncertainty. Recently, China has issued a support policy for the development and utilization of shale gas. In the future, shale gas and shale oil will become the key areas for investment in the industry, and will drive the investment in natural gas pipeline networks and gas storage. It is expected that the petrochemical industry will maintain a stable and stable development trend next year.
Equipment industry. Affected by the slowdown in fixed asset investment growth and the continued decline in exports, the overall operation of the equipment industry has not yet emerged from downward pressure. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November this year, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.2% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than that of all industries above designated size. The growth rate dropped sharply by 7.2 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, the first, second and third quarters increased by 9.1%, 9.1% and 7.6% respectively, and in October and November, they increased by 6.5% and 7.4% respectively. The order fell significantly. Affected by the slowdown in market demand growth, the number of new orders in the equipment manufacturing industry has shrunk significantly. Judging from the orders of key enterprises in the Machinery Federation, the total number of new orders signed last year increased by only 6% year-on-year, and this year has accumulated negative growth. The decline in orders for construction machinery, ships, machine tools, trucks and power generation equipment is the most obvious. The export growth rate dropped sharply. From January to November, the export delivery value of the equipment manufacturing industry only increased by 1.3% year-on-year, which was a significant drop of 20.2 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, the first and second quarters increased by 6.7% and 3% respectively, and the third quarter decreased by 1.9%. Since July It has experienced negative growth for five consecutive months and decreased by 1.8% in November. The profitability has declined. From January to October, the equipment industry realized a profit of 905.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% (up 20.8% in 2011), of which the automobile industry increased by 8% year-on-year. Excluding the profit of the automobile industry, the profits of other industries fell by 1.4%; the main business income The profit rate was 6.31%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year; the corporate loss was 14.7%, and the loss of loss-making enterprises was 77.5 billion yuan, up 71.7% year-on-year. Opportunities and challenges coexist, and the outlook is still not optimistic. Next year is a crucial year for thoroughly implementing the industrial transformation and upgrading plan and the strategic emerging industry development plan. The high-end equipment manufacturing industry will usher in an important period of development opportunities. At the same time, the acceleration of investment in infrastructure such as railways and water conservancy will drive the growth of construction machinery and other industries. There is room for growth in UHV transmission and transformation in hydropower equipment and power transmission and transformation equipment in power generation equipment. However, overall, the improvement in demand is not obvious, and the export situation is difficult to fundamentally improve. At the same time, China’s equipment manufacturing industry is facing overcapacity in the middle and low-end products, high-end product research and development capabilities and weak industrialization capabilities, leading to industry homogenization. Competition has intensified, and the implementation of the re-industrialization strategy in developed economies such as the United States will also form a certain squeeze on the export of our mechanical and electrical products. It is expected that the overall operation of the equipment industry next year will be better than this year, and the growth rate of added value is higher than this year.
The automotive industry will maintain a small increase. Automobile production and sales have overcome the adverse factors such as the withdrawal of market stimulus policies since last year, and reversed the negative growth situation at the beginning of the year, showing a trend of stabilization and recovery. According to the statistics of the Automobile Association, from January to November this year, the cumulative production and sales volume of automobiles nationwide were 17.48 million and 17.49 million, respectively, up 4.5% and 4% respectively, of which passenger car production and sales increased by 7.3% and 7.1% respectively. Commercial vehicle production and sales volume decreased by 5.7% and 6.8% respectively. The growth of self-owned brand passenger vehicles is basically stable, and the proportion in the domestic market share has declined. From January to November, the sales of self-owned brand passenger cars reached 5.8 million units, up 4.9% year-on-year, accounting for 41.3% of the passenger car market sales, accounting for a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year; among them, self-owned brand cars sold 2.7 million units, up 1.5 % accounted for 27.8% of the car market sales, accounting for 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. The market share of low-displacement cars has declined slightly. From January to November, the sales of cars of 1.6 liters and below were 6.9 million units, up 6.1% year-on-year, accounting for 70.8% of the sales volume of cars, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. Exports maintained a rapid growth, and the export value of bicycles was less than 1/3 of imported cars. According to the statistics of the Automobile Association, 965,000 vehicles were exported from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million vehicles throughout the year. According to customs statistics, from January to October, the total number of imported cars was 970,000, with an import value of 41 billion US dollars, up 17.9% and 20.3% respectively. The cumulative export of automobiles was 851,000, and the export value was 11.4 billion US dollars, up 21% year-on-year. And 28.1%, the export car price is only 31.7% of imported cars. Industrial concentration has increased. From January to November, the top ten group sales of automobile sales totaled 15.33 million units, accounting for 87.6% of total vehicle sales, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the same period last year. New energy vehicles are expected to become new growth points, but the development of the entire automotive industry faces bottlenecks such as resources and the environment. The effects of measures to expand domestic demand and energy conservation and new energy vehicle industry development plans will gradually emerge. At the same time, the escalating consumption structure and steady growth of household income levels will continue to drive demand for automobiles and provide good support for the long-term steady development of the automotive industry. However, after experiencing high-speed development of more than 25% of annual production and sales in 10 years, the automobile industry is entering a new round of adjustment cycle. At the same time, Beijing, Guangzhou and other cities have adopted measures to purchase automobiles for consideration. The demonstration effect also constrains the development of the automotive industry.
The global ship market continues to be sluggish and the shipping industry has entered a deep adjustment cycle. Under the global economic and trade growth slowdown, the shipping market continued to slump, the three major indicators of shipbuilding continued to decline in an all-round way, the economic benefits showed a downward trend, and the operating conditions deteriorated. Production has fallen sharply and the industry's operating conditions have deteriorated. According to the statistics of the Ship Association, from January to November, the national shipbuilding completion was 50.55 million DWT, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%. From January to October, the total profit of the shipbuilding enterprises monitored by the China Shipbuilding Industry Association decreased by 55.6% year-on-year. The market is shrinking, and hand-held orders are drastically reduced. From January to November, the new orders for ships were 17.04 million DWT, of which 13.34 million DWT were exported, down 49.4% and 46.9% respectively. By the end of November, the orders for hand-held ships were 113.35 million DWT, of which 93.85 million were exported. The deadweight tons decreased by 30.3% and 31.3% respectively. Considering that orders are highly concentrated in the hands of a few large shipyards, most small and medium-sized shipyards face insufficient operating rates. At the same time, global orders fell to new lows, and by the end of November global orders for hand-held ships fell to 4,721 and 270 million deadweights, down 25% from the end of last year. Affected by the continued downturn in the shipping market, the difficulty of delivery is increasing. Statistics show that as of the end of 2011, China's hand-held ships orders 154.55 million DWT, of which 86.62 million DWT should be delivered in 2012, and only 50.55 million DWT will be delivered by the end of November. It is estimated that the annual delivery will be less than 60 million DWT. About 30 million DWT ships were withdrawn or delayed for delivery. Under the general environment of slowing global economic growth, due to the continued downturn in the international shipping market and the development cycle of the shipbuilding industry, the production and operation situation of China's shipbuilding industry will become more severe next year.
Consumer goods industry. Since the beginning of this year, affected by factors such as shrinking exports and rising costs, the growth rate of consumer goods industry production in the second quarter has slowed down noticeably. From the overall operational situation, supported by the steady growth of domestic demand, the second quarter has shown a steady development momentum. According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November this year, the added value of the consumer goods industry increased by 11% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.1 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, the first quarter increased by 14.3%, the second quarter increased by 10.2%, and the third quarter increased. 10%, in October and November, the growth rate was 10%, and the growth rate was stable. The growth rate of exports showed a rebound. 1-11月份，消费品工业实现出口交货值同比增长6.8%，比去年同期回落9.1个百分点，其中，一、二、三季度分别增长6.3%、5.7%和7%，10月份、11月份分别增长7.2%和9.4%。内需稳定增长将支撑消费品工业继续保持良好发展态势。着力扩大内需特别是消费需求仍将是明年宏观调控政策的基本取向，在继续完善促进消费政策和努力提高城乡居民收入水平等一系列宏观调控措施的引导下，消费对工业增长的贡献率将进一步提升。但是，明年全球经济形势依然复杂，出口依存度较高的轻纺工业面临的外部环境仍然严峻，出口状况难以出现明显改观。综合来看，预计明年消费品工业增速可能与今年大体相当。
轻工行业生产形势总体保持平稳。今年1-11月份，轻工行业增加值同比增长11.1%，高于全部规模以上工业1.1个百分点，但比去年同期回落4个百分点。其中，8、9、10和11四个月分别增长9.9%、9.7%、9.6%和10%，轻工行业运行逐渐趋于平稳。食品行业增势基本平稳，但其他行业下滑幅度较大。在轻工行业中，农副食品加工、食品、饮料等行业增加值合计占轻工行业规模以上工业增加值的比重接近47%，同比增长13.2%，快于轻工行业增加值增速2.1个百分点;扣除食品行业，轻工其他行业合计增长9.3%。出口增速回升。出口交货值同比增长8.5%，增速同比回落7.3个百分点；其中一、二、三季度分别增长7.3%、8.5%和9.4%，10月份、11月份分别增长7.9%和11.1%。扶持中小企业的政策效果显现。1-10月份，轻工规模以上中型、小型企业利息支出同比分别增长22%和28.3%，比一季度均回落21个百分点，比上半年分别回落9.3个和12.3个百分点。利润保持较快增长。1-10月份，轻工行业实现利润7981亿元，同比增长17.9%;主营业务收入利润率为5.66%，同比提高0.12个百分点；企业亏损面为12.1%，亏损企业亏损额同比增长31.6%。消费环境将进一步改善。在国内经济企稳回升，国家实施的各项稳增长政策效果逐渐显现的大背景下，轻工行业发展面临的政策与市场环境将进一步改善。但同时，劳动力成本刚性上涨、人民币汇率升值压力加大使得长期以来的低成本发展模式受到挑战，同时还面临需求不足、贸易壁垒、技术创新能力不足、自主品牌缺乏等突出问题，如何确保食品安全也是面临的突出问题之一。由于前期刺激消费政策提前释放了消费能力，新的扩内需政策可能出现边际效应递减问题，预计明年轻工行业生产增速基本保持平稳。
纺织行业面临的形势仍然严峻。受出口萎缩影响，纺织行业生产增速逐季回落。1-11月份，我国纺织行业增加值同比增长10.5%，增速与去年同期持平，其中一、二、三季度分别增长13.1%、10%和9%，10月份和11月份分别增长10.2%和9.6%。投资增幅回落，中部地区投资强度高于其他地区。1-11月份，我国纺织行业完成固定资产投资7057亿元，同比增长15.7%，增幅同比回落19个百分点，其中中部地区投资增长16.9%。利润下滑明显。1-10月份，纺织行业实现利润同比增长2.1%，增速比1-9月加快1.7个百分点，但比去年同期大幅回落26.9个百分点；主营业务收入利润率为4.55%，同比回落0.34个百分点;企业亏损面为15.7%，亏损企业亏损额同比增长62.7%。其中，化学纤维制造业实现利润同比下降45.7%，主营业务收入利润率为2.48%，亏损企业亏损额同比增长96.5%。国内外棉花价差过大，棉制产品出口竞争力受到严重削弱。去年第四季度以来，国内外棉花价差不断拉大。据有关市场监测数据显示，11月16日，328棉花价格为18788元/吨，与国际1%关税后的折人民币棉价(13116元/吨)差已经达5672元/吨。国内外棉价差持续拉大，严重削弱了我国棉纺织产业链的国际竞争力，1-10月份我国棉纺织品及服装出口额同比仅增长1.2%，低于上年同期15.1个百分点。国际市场萎缩，出口形势严峻。从我国纺织品服装的主要出口市场情况看，前三季度，美国从全球进口纺织品服装总额同比下降1.1%，欧盟进口额下降6.3%，日本进口同比仅增长1%(增速同比下降13.7个百分点)。受国际市场需求不足、成本上升等因素影响，前三季度我国在欧盟和日本纺织品服装进口中所占的份额为40.4%和72.7%，同比分别下降了0.8个和2个百分点。1-11月份，纺织行业完成出口交货值同比仅增长2.4%，增速同比回落13.3个百分点。另据海关统计，1-11月份，我国纺织品服装出口2308亿美元，同比仅增长2.1%，扣除价格因素实际为负增长(前10个月出口价格同比上升3.4%，扣除价格因素纺织品服装出口量同比下降0.9%)。出口需求不振、综合生产成本上升、传统比较优势减弱将继续影响纺织行业运行态势。尽管目前纺织行业生产情况基本平稳，但是也存在着出口明显萎缩、经济效益大幅下滑等突出问题。同时，用工等生产要素成本上涨、人民币汇率升值压力、国际贸易壁垒、国内外棉花价差持续扩大等因素也将继续困扰纺织行业的发展，明年纺织行业不大可能比今年增长更快。
电子制造业。我国电子制造业对外依存度高，行业运行与国际形势紧密关联，出口不振导致今年以来电子制造业生产增速出现明显回落，尽管四季度在出口增长回升拉动下生产增速有所加快，但仍存在很大的不确定性。1-11月份，电子制造业增加值同比增长11.6%，增速同比回落4.3个百分点，其中8、9、10和11四个月分别增长9.9%、10%、10.1%和12.6%，电子制造业生产增速逐月加快。出口有所恢复。1-11月份，完成出口交货值同比增长11.6%，增速比去年同期回落3.3个百分点，其中一、二、三季度分别增长8.6%、13.6%和6.2%，8月份以后月度增速明显回升，11月份当月增长23.2%。盈利状况有所好转，但利润率仍处较低水平。1-10月份，电子制造业实现利润同比增长10%，增速比前三季度加快4.3个百分点;主营业务收入利润率仅为3.1%，比全部规模以上工业企业低2.36个百分点，企业亏损面达24.7%。明年，国际经济形势依然复杂，世界经济复苏缺乏动力，在日趋激烈的市场竞争中，长期处于产业链中低端的我国电子制造业所面临的发展环境仍然严峻。
四、“稳增长、调结构、转方式、增效益”将是2013年工业通信业经济运行工作的主旋律 <br> 　　明年是全面贯彻落实党的十八大精神的开局之年，是实施“十二五”规划承前启后的关键一年，是为全面建成小康社会奠定坚实基础的重要一年。要全面贯彻落实党的十八大精神和中央经济工作会议部署，以科学发展观为指导，继续坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，围绕走中国特色新型工业化、信息化、城镇化和农业现代化道路，按照形成新的经济发展方式的要求，加快推进工业转型升级，加快构建现代产业体系，加快推动信息化和工业化深度融合，更加注重科技创新驱动作用，更加注重大中小微企业协同发展，进一步优化企业发展环境，着力提升发展的质量和效益，实现工业通信业平稳较快发展。
(一)加大对实体经济支持力度，夯实稳增长基础。在维持宏观政策连续性和稳定性、增强调控的针对性、有效性和前瞻性的同时，要切实加大对实体经济发展支持力度，改善不利于实业发展的环境。改造提升传统产业，培育发展战略性新兴产业，加快发展生产性服务业。把化解产能过剩问题作为结构调整的工作重点，通过扩大和创造国内需求，消化一批产能;通过支持企业增强跨国经营能力，加快走出去，向境外转移一批产能;通过优化产业组织结构，推动企业兼并重组，整合一批产能;通过严格执行环保、安全、能耗等市场准入标准，下决心再淘汰一批落后产能。加大对企业技术改造的支持力度，建立健全技术改造的长效工作机制，营造全社会支持企业技术改造的环境。加大对装备制造业等投入，研究实施“强基工程”，提高基础配套能力。
(二)实施创新驱动发展战略，提升产业核心竞争力。强化企业创新主体地位，积极吸收国际创新资源和创新成果，加快推动重大技术突破。更多运用市场化工具和手段推进结构调整，进一步发挥产业政策的导向作用，持续加大对关键领域自主创新的投入力度，加快实施重大产业创新发展工程，大力支持高端装备研发。围绕重点领域发展需求，积极培育战略性新兴产业、先进制造业，更加注重研发、设计、品牌、营销等环节，更加注重工业关键技术创新，发展高新技术装备制造业，深化原材料产品加工发展，创新消费品行业商业模式，在一些关键领域形成国际核心竞争力和新的增长点。
(三)推进“两化”深度融合，着力增强信息化对经济社会发展的支撑和引领作用。针对我国信息基础设施建设滞后，信息资源开发利用水平不高，信息通信技术在推动经济社会发展中的潜力尚未充分发挥等突出问题，加大政策支持力度，加快构建下一代国家信息基础设施，采取有效措施，大力支持发展现代信息技术产业体系。加强信息化的统筹协调和顶层设计，健全信息安全保障体系，推进信息网络技术在经济社会各领域的广泛运用和全面覆盖。实施两化深度融合推进工程，提升重点行业整体两化融合水平。进一步加大信息技术对传统产业的改造提升力度。
(四)着力优化中小企业发展环境，增强中小企业发展的活力和内生动力。进一步加大结构性减税政策力度，扩大企业受惠面。实施中小企业和个体工商户结构性减税政策，扩大中小企业减征所得税对象和应税所得额范围。加快出台政府采购扶持中小企业政策。研究减轻企业特别是小微企业社会保险缴费负担的相关政策。调整和优化消费环节税收结构，进一步拉动消费需求。进一步减轻企业税费负担，对符合产业政策方向、暂时陷入困境的企业，建议在一定期限内采取减缓政策。 We will relax the entry threshold for financial enterprises, and implement private capital to establish policies for village banks and joint-stock financial institutions. Encourage the development of direct financing markets, expand multi-channel financing, and create a good environment for the development of the real economy and SMEs.

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