Analysis and forecast of price trend of raw and auxiliary materials for foundry (8)

V. Coke: Review 07 market, forecast 08 trend

In 2007, coke production showed an increasing trend. The growth rate of production increased from 9.9% at the beginning of the year to 21.3% in October, and the growth rate increased by 11.4 percentage points. Since the second quarter of 2007, the growth rate of coke production has returned to more than 20%.

The rapid growth of coke production is related to changes in export resources, and the export of coke plus export tax will also affect the export coke in China in 2007. Therefore, the high growth of coke production will become the domestic coke production and price. Important factors, from the analysis of price changes in coke North China, Figure 16 shows that: in the first 11 months of 2007, coke prices have been rising, the price increased from 1570 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 2150 yuan / ton in December The cumulative increase has been around 600 yuan / ton. From the interval analysis of price operation, the price increase of coke market has ended in August, and the price of August-November has been consistently maintained at 1800-2150 yuan/ton, which is stable. When the coke market price continued to rise in the January-July period, it was also the interval in which coke exports increased.

Entering the rapid development of the global steel industry in 2008, the international coke market once had a tight supply situation, and domestic export coke prices also rose rapidly. In addition, due to the snowstorm in the south in January 2008, the tight supply of raw coal caused the domestic coke price to rise rapidly. Therefore, it is predicted that the price of coke will continue to rise in the second half of 2008.

Figure 16 Price Chart of Coke from 07 to 08 May

Conclusion

Based on the current complex price market, we make the following suggestions:

1) In the daily production and operation activities, do not knock the price of the castings to death, and leave sufficient room for manoeuvre. A set of orders stipulates a price. If the demand side requests to set the annual price, it should also add the terms and conditions as the price of the casting material increases or decreases, so that the casting price can be adjusted at any time in order to reduce the loss of the casting factory, and this is fair to both the supply and demand sides.

2) Try to use old materials instead. Such as: the production of copper castings according to different materials using scrap copper wire, old bright wire, cable, etc., its quality is better than electrolytic copper, and the price can save about 1000-2000 yuan / ton. The use of scrap aluminum in the production of aluminum parts can also save about 1000-4000 yuan / ton. Especially for the production of stainless steel castings, do not use ferrochrome, nickel plate, ferromolybdenum, pure iron to synthesize and use, try to use 304, 316, 409, 430 and two series of waste stainless steel materials, can reduce the cost of 1000-5000 yuan / ton .

3) The use of new energy-saving materials, such as the use of tamping coke, due to its high density, large heat, long burning time, etc., can save at least 10% - 15% of the funds. For nickel-containing castings that do not require high carbon content, nickel plates should not be used, and nickel alloy base materials can be used, which can reduce the cost by 1000-3000 yuan/ton. The savings are direct profits and are recommended for adoption by manufacturers. Because the time relationship is not a single case.

The turmoil in financial markets in 2008, potential inflation, oil markets and foreign exchange inflows into emerging markets have become the interfering factors for the future economy. At the same time, the domestic CPA continues to rise, and the minimum wage standard stipulated by the National New Labor Law in March this year, the general increase in wages caused by the increase in wages. The central bank has continuously raised interest rates and the price of capital markets has risen, which is gradually being transferred to the real economy, which also increases the cost of enterprises. As the demand for foundry materials is positively correlated with macroeconomic development, the future economic trend will affect the growth of demand. From the current economic indicators, including the impact of domestic and international contradictions between supply and demand, the impact of the US dollar exchange rate, the impact of international funds, the interaction of domestic and international prices, the economic trends of the world economy and major countries, the impact of domestic and foreign stocks, etc. Ups and downs, unpredictable situations. Therefore, the macroeconomic changes will inevitably raise concerns about the future growth of metal demand.

From the demand side, the current economic slowdown has caused concern about medium-term consumption, but as developing countries become the main growth point of global consumption, it is still to be seen whether the future consumption will decline. From the supply side, the increase in global mining capital investment indicates a optimistic expectation for the industry's business cycle. Many foundry materials are basic resources, a little less and not regenerated. At the same time, as the current inventory level is still at a historical low level, the value of commodities is gradually recognized by investment. Therefore, we believe that the overall supply-demand relationship in 2008 is still tight, and the economic factors of the commodity bull market have not disappeared, and the foundation supporting the high casting price still exists.

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