Global and China's Aluminum Profile Industry Development Status and Future Trend Analysis

In recent years, with the rapid advancement of large-scale infrastructure investment and industrialization in China, aluminum profiles have become an important application material in the field of construction and machinery industry. Their output and consumption in the entire industry have grown rapidly, and China has also become a world leader. The largest aluminum production base and consumer market. After nearly 10 years of rapid growth, China's aluminum industry has entered a new stage of development and shows a number of new trends.

Global and China's aluminum industry status Global aluminum production and sales situation. From the perspective of production capacity distribution, there are about 95 countries and regions that can produce aluminum profiles in 2009, and about 2,200 production companies, of which China’s production capacity accounts for more than 50% of the world’s total production capacity, ranking first.

With the global economic growth and the continuous expansion of aluminum profiles, the consumption of global aluminum profiles has increased from approximately 8.69 million tons in 2001 to approximately 15.5 million tons in 2009, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.5%. It is estimated that in 2012, the global consumption of aluminum profiles will reach approximately 16.69 million tons.

From a regional point of view, consumption in major regions of the world showed different trends from 2001 to 2009. The proportion of consumption in China has risen rapidly, while Europe and North America have shown a downward trend. As of 2009, China’s consumption accounted for 47% of global consumption, while Europe, North America, and Japan accounted for only 21%, 8%, and 6%, respectively. China has developed into a major consumer of aluminum profiles.

From the application perspective, the construction industry is still the main field of aluminum profile applications, far exceeding consumption in other areas, and consumption has increased year by year, accounting for over 63% of total consumption as of 2009. From a regional point of view, the average consumption of aluminum profiles in the industrial sector in North America, Europe and other developed regions exceeded 50% in 2009, while the consumption of aluminum profiles in the industrial sector in China was only 32%, and the proportion of consumption in the industrial sector was relatively low.

China's aluminum industry status quo. The output of aluminum profiles in China increased from 1.917 million tons in 2001 to 7.29 million tons in 2009, with a compound growth rate of 19.8%. In 2009, the output of aluminum profiles and industrial aluminum profiles in China was 4.96 million tons and 2.33 million tons, respectively. In 2010, the production and sales volume of aluminum profiles in China will exceed 10 million tons, of which the consumption of aluminum profiles in buildings is expected to exceed 6 million tons. By 2012, the production and sales volume of aluminum profiles in China will reach approximately 14.4 million tons.

The development of major downstream industries and their impact on the aluminum profile industry are in the construction and real estate sectors. In recent years, the rapid growth of the domestic construction and real estate industry is the largest consumer of aluminum profiles, accounting for about 68% of the total domestic aluminum consumption. In the sub-species consumption field of architectural aluminum profiles, aluminum alloy doors, windows, curtain wall profiles also account for the main part.

The "2009 China Urban Housing Development Report" pointed out that by the end of 2005, China's per capita residential building area was 26.11 square meters. The "Research Report on the Prediction of Residents' Living Objectives in China by 2020" published by the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development refers to "the estimated per capita housing area of ​​urban residents in China is 35 square meters by 2020." Therefore, a large number of new homes will need to be added every year for a long time to come. According to the Ministry of Construction’s prediction, from 2005 to 2020, China’s new construction area will be approximately 30 billion square meters.

According to the total new building area of ​​20 billion square meters calculated from 2011 to 2020 (measured according to the area of ​​doors and windows accounted for 15% of the building area, China's doors and windows are about 55% of the use of aluminum alloy, aluminum doors and windows need 8 kg per square meter of building profiles) From 2011 to 2020, the average annual demand for aluminum building profiles for new residential buildings was 1.32 million tons.

The old building renews and reconstructs the demand for building aluminum profiles. From international experience, when a country’s per capita housing area is larger than 25 to 35 square meters, the country’s old building renovation will enter a stage of rapid growth. China will be at this stage from now until 2020. Taking China’s existing 45 million square meters of building area as an example, about 10% of the 45 billion square meters of buildings need to be reconstructed each year, approximately 675 million square meters of doors and windows, and 55% of the doors and windows are made of aluminum alloys. About 2.97 million tons of aluminum profiles are needed each year.

With the large-scale construction of new rural areas and small towns, the scale effect of the architectural aluminum extrusion industry has emerged, which has led to a gradual reduction in the price of aluminum profiles, and a good price/performance ratio has led to the widespread use of architectural aluminum profiles in rural China. It is estimated that by 2015, the proportion of newly-added construction area in new rural areas and small towns will be equivalent to the newly-added urban construction area, reaching approximately 3.5 billion square meters, which will at least bring about 1 million tons of new aluminum market for building aluminum profiles.

In the industrial field. At present, China's industrial aluminum profiles account for only about 30% of total aluminum profiles. In the same period, the consumption of aluminum profiles in Europe, North America, and Japan is 60%, 55%, and 40%, respectively. China. The difference in consumption structure reflects the lack of production, development and application of aluminum profiles in the industrial sector in China, indicating that there is a huge room for growth in the consumption of industrial aluminum profiles in China. It is expected that the consumption of industrial aluminum profiles in China will continue to increase in the next 5 to 10 years, and the proportion of aluminum profiles will increase from about 30% at present to about 45 to 50% in 2015. According to the relevant plans of the Chinese government, In the next 10 years, the proportion of industrial materials accounting for the total application of aluminum profiles will be close to 70%.

Aluminium profiles are mainly used in the transportation and transportation industry (including automobile manufacturing and rail transit), equipment and machinery equipment manufacturing, and durable consumer goods (including light industry) in the industrial sector, accounting for approximately 10% of aluminum profiles in China respectively. , 10% and 12%.

Industry Development Prospects and Trends Analysis Consumption of aluminum profiles will continue to be strong in the long term. Benefiting the accelerated urbanization process and the renovation of old buildings, the consumption of aluminum profiles in buildings will continue to grow rapidly. In particular, domestic secondary and tertiary cities, small towns, and rural markets will gradually become the main markets for aluminum consumption. It is expected that aluminum profiles will maintain relatively stable growth in the coming years.

The consumption of industrial aluminum profiles will grow rapidly, and high-end products will become mainstream. As a country that is developing in the middle period of industrialization, our country will be the key period for entering the middle developed countries and realizing the third-step strategic goals in the next 20 to 30 years. The application space of aluminum profiles in the industrial field is huge. Of the 124 industrial sectors in China, 113 use aluminum products, accounting for 91% of the total.

In view of the fact that the proportion of industrial aluminum profiles in the entire aluminum profile products is too low, the relevant state departments have provided guidance on the consumption structure of aluminum profiles, and the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other nine ministries have proposed the “Guidance on Accelerating the Structural Adjustment of Aluminum Industry”. One of the main goals of the structural adjustment of the aluminum industry is to increase the proportion of high-value-added processed materials, so that the proportion of industrial profiles and building profiles can reach 7:3.

At the same time, with the development of lightweighting in the transportation industry, electronic power industry and machinery manufacturing industry, aluminum profiles are continuously expanding in China's industrial applications, and the demand for medium and high-strength industrial aluminum profiles and pipe and bar materials is increasing rapidly. In the next few years, the proportion of consumption of industrial aluminum profiles in China will increase year by year in the total consumption of aluminum profiles. The proportion of aluminum profile products will increase from about 30% at present to about 45 to 50% in 2015, gradually occupying the market. The dominant position.

Technological innovation has become the biggest driving force for the development of the industry. According to the National Plan for Adjustment and Rejuvenation of Non-ferrous Metal Industry, the state will focus on supporting technological transformation and research and development of non-ferrous metals, strengthening the research and development of high-performance aluminum production processes, and supporting the export of deep processing products with high technological content and added value; The support of metal industry technology research and development and technological transformation will encourage enterprises to actively promote the transformation of energy-saving technologies, and provide support to companies that have technological innovations in the issuance of stocks and banks.

With the improvement of national industrial policies, industrial structure, and consumers' requirements for product quality, the current situation of extensive and low-value-added aluminum processing industry has gradually changed. It has crossed the primary development stage characterized by quantitative growth, and it has begun to enter into the promotion of products. Intrinsic quality, rich product variety, relying on comprehensive strength to participate in the new stage of market competition. With the development of the industry entering a new phase, the internal integration of the industry will continue to increase. Some enterprises with low and middle-end products and their production processes and equipment technologies will face pressure from the market, capital, cost, energy consumption, and technology. Gradually eliminated by the market. Some companies with leading production technology, excellent quality, market-oriented, innovative ability and advanced management will occupy more market share. With the internal integration of the industry, the reorganization of aluminum profiles will also accelerate, and the company will develop in the direction of grouping, large-scale, specialization, and branding. The comprehensive strengths of product development such as technology development, quality, management capabilities, and sales services have become the key factors for companies to become bigger and stronger.

The products are widely used in energy conservation, environmental protection and new energy fields. In the field of building energy conservation, according to estimates by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, building energy consumption accounts for about 25% of the total energy consumption of the entire society, and the energy consumption for heat transfer of doors, windows, curtain walls, and other enclosure structures accounts for 20% to 50% of the building energy consumption. Therefore, the heat insulation aluminum alloy products with excellent energy saving effect have a wide application space. From 2010 to 2015, energy-saving aluminum products represented by heat insulation aluminum alloy products will maintain a compound annual growth rate of more than 30%.

In the areas of transportation, household appliances, electronics and mechanical equipment, aluminum products are characterized by their light weight, low price, and recyclability. Under the premise that the country emphasizes energy conservation and environmental protection, aluminum profiles are used in the fields of transportation, household appliances, electronics and mechanical equipment. The market is very large in the future.

Taking the automobile as an example, it is estimated that if the vehicle's self-weight is reduced by 10%, the fuel consumption can be reduced by 6 to 8%. Aluminum products are undoubtedly the best material for car weight reduction. According to Alcoa's research data, if we use aluminum substitute steel to reduce the weight of each vehicle by 1t, we can save 2.4 billion liters of fuel, based on 500,000 buses. At the same time, it can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At present, the average global aluminum consumption of automobiles has increased from 50 kg/vehicle at the beginning of 1980 to 107 kg/vehicle, an increase of 1.14 times. According to the European Aluminum Association’s forecast, the amount of aluminum used for automobiles in Europe will be expected to reach 200 kg/vehicle by 2015.

Application of aluminum profiles in new energy and environmental protection fields. In recent years, China’s new energy and environmental protection industry has grown at an average annual rate of over 20%, of which the most widely used are solar and LED industries, and aluminum profiles have gradually gained in these industries due to their advantages of good heat conduction and light weight. A lot of applications.

Industry restructuring and upgrading of the industry has become a trend. The industry access threshold has gradually increased. In recent years, the state has issued a number of industrial adjustment policies in response to the small scale, low concentration, and redundant construction of the aluminum alloy extrusion processing industry. The "Aluminium Industry Access Requirements" promulgated in October 2007 clarified the access conditions for the new aluminum processing project, and stipulated relevant energy consumption and metal consumption indicators, strengthened environmental protection, and improved the industry's access threshold. The improvement of industry access threshold will control the scale of investment in the aluminum alloy profile processing industry, standardize the industry's disorderly competition, and create good competition conditions for enterprises that focus on product quality, energy conservation and consumption reduction.

At present, China's aluminum extrusion materials industry has already crossed the primary development stage characterized by quantitative growth, and has entered a new stage of relying on technological innovation and comprehensive strength to participate in market competition. The number of domestic aluminum alloy profile manufacturers has been reduced from more than 1200 during the peak period to more than 680. A large number of small aluminum product processing plants with low technological level, poor quality, and low quality have gradually been eliminated. The future industry restructuring and integration will be Become a big trend.

Companies with advantages in technology research and development, branding, management, channels, and capital will become the leading companies in the industry restructuring. The comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises focusing on scale, technology, brand, management, and service is increasingly important.