International Energy Agency Reduces Global Oil Demand Forecast

The Paris-based International Energy Agency released its monthly oil market report on the 10th, reducing its global oil demand forecast this year to 89.5 million barrels, 100,000 barrels lower than the previous forecast, and an increase of 120 per day from the 2010 average daily demand. Millions of barrels.

At the same time, taking into account the energy needs of Japan’s post-disaster reconstruction, the International Energy Agency increased its 2012 global oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 91.1 million barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency pointed out that if the world economy is once again depressed, as predicted by the International Monetary Organization, this year and next year, there will be less than 3% growth rate. Then, the average daily oil demand in the world in the next two years will be based on the above forecast basis. Reducing 300,000 barrels and 1.3 million barrels respectively.

The report pointed out that if oil demand for this year and next year meets low growth expectations (less than 3% increase), crude oil in the international market will supply more than demand.

The International Energy Agency believes that if the economic growth of developed economies falls again into the trough, international oil prices may continue to decline. Statistics show that since the beginning of August, the market concerns caused by debt problems in Europe and the United States have caused international oil prices to fall by about 12%.

However, the agency warned that there are many uncertainties in the current economic situation. In addition, because the military and political process did not see significant results, it is estimated that Libya could not resume oil exports during the year. Therefore, it is difficult to completely ease the tight oil supply situation in the short term.