Refined oil prices may increase in recent days

Due to the high prices of crude oil in the three international markets, market analysts are almost unanimously expecting refined oil prices (to crack the oil price dilemma) will be raised recently. Judging from the previous practice of price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission, the increase may be in the range of RMB 300-400/t.

Price adjustment is not affected by inflation. China's current refined oil pricing mechanism uses "double conditions" to restrict domestic refined oil pricing. According to the Oil Price Management Measures announced in 2009, when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly. However, "22 + 4%" is a necessary and insufficient condition for adjustment of refined oil prices. Even if conditions are met, the NDRC may not adjust prices.

According to statistics, by February 12th, the change rate of crude oil in the three places has reached more than 10%, far exceeding the condition of 4%. Zhao Jingmin, chief analyst of China National Chemical Industry Network's oil products industry, said that conditions for the adjustment of refined oil prices had already been satisfied before the Spring Festival, but considering that the primary factor of stabilizing prices was that the price of refined oil was not raised. After the Spring Festival has passed, the market is facing sensitive events such as the central bank raising interest rates, the release of economic data in January and the holding of **, and the favorable and bad price adjustment factors are at a game stage. Comprehensive analysis of various factors, the expected increase in refined oil prices is increasingly strong.

There is a view that managing inflation expectations will hinder the adjustment of refined oil prices. However, Dong Xiucheng, deputy dean of the School of Business Administration of China University of Petroleum, said that controlling inflation will not hinder the adjustment of oil prices, and there is no inevitable link between the increase in oil prices. The last increase in refined oil prices was also in the context of adjusting prices and preventing inflation. The NDRC considers relevant factors, but the adjustment will still be adjusted and will not be affected by inflation.

As for the timing of price adjustment, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that the window for refined oil price adjustment has long been opened, but according to the practice of “not adjusting before adjusting to a post-festival period” in previous years, the possibility of adjustment this week and next week is very high. . Zhong Key, chief editor of the Oriental Oil and Gas Network, believes that there is a great possibility of price adjustment this week.

The price adjustment rate may be 300-400 yuan / ton for the refined oil price increase rate, interest rate energy analyst Liao Kaixi said that the three world crude oil price changes have reached 10.58%, in theory, the adjustment range of refined oil should be 500 - 600 yuan / ton, but the country may comprehensively consider various factors on this basis discounted, the range may be 300-400 yuan / ton. Oriental Oil and Gas Network believes that the price adjustment should be around 350 yuan.

If refined oil prices are raised in time, the domestic refining industry's gross profit margin will improve. According to the calculation of the Oriental Oil and Gas Network, after February, due to the rise in international oil prices, the average settlement price of crude oil rose by about 260 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the gross profit per ton of refined oil produced by refining Daqing was only 50 yuan. At the same time, if other production costs have already shown a slight loss, it will be the lowest profitable month since the implementation of the price adjustment mechanism.

In addition, the wholesale and retail price gap will also increase. After the Spring Festival, the lowest wholesale price of No. 0 diesel was RMB 7,750/ton, which was the same as the retail price of RMB 7,790/ton, which was only RMB 240/ton. With the beginning of the spring plowing and the peak oil consumption after the restoration of infrastructure, the current price difference of only 240 yuan can easily be squeezed. If the price of oil is not raised in time, the “oil shortage” at the gas station may be reappeared.