SNEC Live: Reinhold Buwttgereit Analysis and Prospect of European PV Market, Impact of European Debt Crisis and Energy Policy on PV Industry

Century New Energy Network & PVMate, SNEC Global PV Leader Dialogue Live Broadcast:

Reinhold Buwttgereit, Secretary-General of the European Photovoltaic Association, introduced the analysis and outlook of the European PV market, the impact of the European debt crisis and energy policy on the photovoltaic industry;

Reinhold Buwttgereit: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your invitation. I am also very happy to have the opportunity to once again represent the European Photovoltaic Industry Association here to participate in our Sino-German cooperation in solar photovoltaic cooperation. Here I will tell you about the photovoltaic industry in Europe. First of all, I will introduce the situation of our association. The European Solar Energy Association not only has some European members but also some non-European members. We also have many other associations from outside Europe, including the United States and Asia. In a situation where we can go global, we need more people to work together. We hope to eliminate some conflicts between us through joint cooperation and hope that we can cooperate together.

All of our global photovoltaic industry companies need to come together to find a solution that will eliminate conflicts and strengthen our cooperation. We know that we need a lot of dialogue and discussion whether we are in nuclear energy or in renewable energy.

We also consulted for some of our policy in the EU region for companies in the photovoltaic industry in Brussels. At the same time we will also discuss some energy issues in a number of institutions, including some European European parliaments, including energy associations, and all places.

As shown in the figure, the cumulative installed capacity of our world from 2000 to 2011 can be seen as a great development on this side. We have recently grown very fast. What are the reasons for these achievements? In Europe, we can see that this kind of global solar energy growth in this area is mainly driven by Europe. In the European region, we can also see that only a few countries are very active. In Germany, Italy, this is Europe's two most active countries in the photovoltaic industry, in Italy. He is the one with the highest photovoltaic market, and the second is Germany. Last year, we looked at the two European countries, Italy and Germany, monopolizing the entire market. This is not good for the global PV market. We need more people to participate in this market. Like the Czech Republic and Spain hope they can catch up.

In Germany, we have introduced the "Renewable Energy Law." We have had many such developments in solar energy in recent years. In the recent past, we have been introducing new policies. Sometimes due to changes in the policies of some countries, in different countries in Europe, different countries in the year may have a relatively large market, and some will have less market. At times, Spain is high, and sometimes the Czech Republic is relatively high. This is related to the markets in different periods of the country.

We saw that Germany had the highest market of this kind last year. In Italy, we also have a relatively high market, which is the green color. In such a development trend, we can see that we should strengthen a regulation and management of our side in the entire market, so that we can better promote such a photovoltaic market and we hope to have A stable photovoltaic market, we hope to have a sustainable photovoltaic market. In many of our communications with European governments, we have also been expressing an idea in this regard. This picture can be seen in some of the new PV installations in 2011. Of all the renewable energy sources, photovoltaics have grown fastest, and the second is wind energy. What will happen next year? The success we have achieved in this area of ​​photovoltaics actually has some negative conditions. Because behind the success, there are also some problems. In this kind of photovoltaic market, we have some problems in connection with the grid, as well as energy storage issues. At the same time, if this problem cannot be solved in time, it will also affect the healthy development and sustainable development of the photovoltaic market. If this problem cannot be solved, the whole market in this area will be difficult to promote globally. We need to find a suitable solution to solve this problem. This will help us to have a healthier development of all our PV markets. We know that PV is at noon and its power generation is the largest. A distribution in the day is not uniform. This affects our price in the market for him. It is necessary to better regulate the value of his high peak and the price of the bottom, and to ensure that we have such a The stable operation of the power grid. The same problem is also being faced in the world. We know that like Germany is now abandoning nuclear energy, we now have to rely more on renewable energy. So in this regard, we must find a suitable way so that we can respond to this in the future. It is a challenge for renewable energy.

Next we look at the global PV market. As you can see, China is in the third place. In the past few weeks, China’s development has been very rapid. This is the 2011 ranking. Italy is the first place. I think that this year's forecast, the 2012 forecast, Germany ranks first, China ranks second, and the United States may be ranked third, possibly Italy or France will be ranked fifth. However, this year's ranking will change.

When it comes to the balance between photovoltaics in Europe and the entire global market, of course, there will be more PV systems in Europe, but I think that this year is the last year, Europe is ahead of the rest of the world in the last year, in the next In a few of them, other countries in Europe will overtake Europe. I have no doubt about this. If we have such an unbalanced market development situation in the past, we will get a certain balance in the future. I think that Asia will account for 1/3 of the future, Europe will account for 1/3, and the United States will account for 1/3. This is the way to divide the PV market. This is my own personal prediction. Of course, the forecast can not be said to be a very definite forecast, but I personally make an estimate based on this status quo. But we can be convinced that such a situation in the European market leading PV PV systems will soon be broken. In particular, China is currently developing at a very rapid pace. The United States is also a continuous sub-development. We are very likely to have PV headquarters in Berlin, Rome or Shanghai, but these companies are international companies. Let's take a look at such things as the Volkswagen Group. Their headquarters is based in Germany, but the Volkswagen Group has a global market share. I think we need to use A forward-looking perspective on the PV market.

Just talking about the market situation, we can see this picture, you can see the development of grid-connected subsidies in Germany. Seeing the numbers here is the return on investment. I would love to see this rate of return on my bank account. In the past, if there were no such figures, no one would be willing to do such an investment. I heard German discussions about related subsidies and grid-connected electricity prices. I have personal concerns about this. Of course, the current changes may seem cruel, but I think it is very necessary to use such a grid-connected electricity price. Now we want to make this market more mature and to accept the results of such mature development. As you can see, this figure is not the final figure, but this figure is not so bad now. In Germany, this figure is also very good and very good. But the problem is that such figures will lose some opportunities. So many people he is not willing to accept such return on investment.

This is a situation in which the global market is now unbalanced. One is in 2010 and 2011. We can see that the gap between this market and production is very large. We see that in Europe today's PV installations, we all think that the German taxpayers pay these taxes, and the subsidized PV industry has all given the money to China. Of course, many parts and systems come from China's. Many will say that German taxpayers have given money to Chinese manufacturers, but this is not the truth. In fact, if you have a photovoltaic system, he is partly from China, partly from Spain or partly from Italy. This is not necessarily true. I once again took the car as an example. You saw that not all the parts and components needed to buy a Volkswagen car are from Germany, but also from Apple's IPAD. Not all of his parts are from the United States. For the photovoltaic system market, is also like this. You can see the complexity of the current trade, many German companies, he appeared bankrupt. Of course, bankruptcy is not always a good thing. However, it cannot be said that the German bankrupt companies were all caused by China's participation in the competition. This is not true. Of course, this market adjustment, each country needs to adapt. We have seen the European Union’s current debt crisis in Europe. It is increasingly difficult for European companies to get loans from banks. Of course, this repayment is also becoming more and more difficult. There are some cases of dumping. This is both existence and denial. Of course, this is not to say that all markets are operating in such a situation.

We see R&D. In the past, I think that Germany has a very good R&D advantage in the European market. However, it is not easy to maintain such advantages. We have invested a lot in R&D. If we only invest 2% of this turnover in research and development, this is far from enough. Some companies will invest 5% of their turnover, and their company's development will have only 2 inputs. % of companies have a difference. We have now recognized this problem and, of course, we have also worked hard to solve this problem. This is especially the issue of the global competition market. I do not agree that the bankruptcy of German companies is caused by China's participation in competition. We need to establish a partnership relationship globally. In this case, especially in the photovoltaic system market, we need to carry out such global market cooperation. Three or four years ago, we have formulated such a global response to climate change. One of the cooperation and policies in Europe is now rarely talked about this issue of climate change. We now talk about more of Greece's problems and European debt issues in Europe, but the policy of climate change Now people's attitude is getting lighter. Therefore, it is time for us to take such responsibility to solve this problem and become a responsible participant in the global market. I am very optimistic about this and I am full of hope for the future.

(pictured) This is a prediction of the photovoltaic industry. From 2011 to 2016, I think that I think it was made six weeks ago. And I look at this forecast again today. I think there is still a lot of room for change, especially in Europe. There is a big difference between the non-European PV market. Of course, one thing is confirmed. The future photovoltaic market is very promising. Thank you very much.

I will leave at the coffee break. If you have any questions, please ask now.

Question 1: Thank you very much for your speech. My question is: When do you think that the price of the photovoltaic industry can be kept the same as the normal price? One is when the price of a photovoltaic system can be reduced to an ordinary ordinary price. When do you think it is possible to achieve such a situation?

Reinhold Buwttgereit: This is another prediction problem. Let's talk about oil prices now. I can't predict the future direction of oil prices. Now the price of oil, we must first see the situation of the euro, if the euro crashes, solar energy prices may make everyone more welcome. Another one about nuclear energy. Now we all know that we give up nuclear energy, but France still insists on nuclear energy. But they are also now considering some new uses of nuclear energy, all of which are hard to say. I think these photovoltaics are still very competitive in the future. Nuclear power, Germany will soon be canceled. I believe that if we consider the price of photovoltaic, I don’t really worry about the price of photovoltaic. I’m even more worried about how big the whole market is, not only the issue of price, but also more. It is a problem of the market.

Question 2: What do you think about the prices of these extranets and the price of rooftops? Many of us talk about the price of Internet access. Now, we also mentioned that many individuals use the photovoltaic energy of the roof themselves to use electricity?

Reinhold Buwttgereit: We are now using a lot of scattered electricity facilities, and we also encourage this decentralized use of electricity, which is related to the market. For example, in Africa or if they cannot connect to the Internet, they will encounter this problem. It also includes a lot of offshore wind power generation, which is also such a problem. It is very difficult for them to go online and I think that in this area in the next few decades, the amount of photovoltaic power generation in this area will be very large. How to connect this network is really a big problem. I think that these dispersive power generation in such a grid will be a future market trend.

I think this kind of independent photovoltaic power generation, I feel more suitable for some African regions where the infrastructure is not very good. In Europe, the grid system on our side is still quite good, so we should say that we should be able to have this situation in connection with the network. So, I think that such an independent Internet access on the roof is just a part of it.