Southern Africa: The next chemical high growth area

Although the level of industrial chemicals in the sub-Saharan African continent (with the exception of eight countries in North Africa) is still relatively low compared to the world average, the chemical production potential in the region is large and the market prospects are bright. It may become the next high-growth region in the global chemical industry and the major market for chemicals in the world. The United States growth consulting firm Frost & Sullivan conducted a detailed analysis of this in December last year.

Countries such as South Africa already have a foundation

Basic chemicals dominate South Africa's chemical industry. In 2009, South Africa’s chemical industry accounted for 3.8% of GDP. The production of South African chemicals is mainly concentrated in the Sasol Phase II and Phase III projects at Sekunda and the coal-to-oil plant at Fort Sassu, where Sasol produces a variety of oil products and chemicals. At present, Sasol produces 191 million tons of olefins per year for the petrochemical industry.

The establishment of the East African Community, which includes Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, provides a large-scale market for chemicals in East Africa. Due to the relatively complete infrastructure and superior financial conditions, Kenya is considered as the gateway to East Africa.

The Kenya Refinery Co., Ltd. (KRPL), located in Mombasa, is the only refinery in Kenya. The refinery supplies petrochemicals to Kenya and neighboring countries Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda. Its main products include liquefied petroleum gas, lead-free high-quality gasoline, regular gasoline, and asphalt and grease. At present, Kenya is the largest production base in East Africa. However, the production of chemicals in the country relies heavily on imports. Among them, raw materials mainly come from China and India, while petroleum products are mainly imported from the Middle East.

Despite having a huge crude oil reserve, Nigeria's manufacturing industry has always relied on imported fuel energy and raw materials. The four existing refineries in Nigeria were established 27 years ago. Since 2007, the operating rates of the four refineries have been less than 40% of capacity. The lack of tamoxifen, the interruption of crude oil supply and lower efficiency are the main reasons for the lower capacity utilization rate.

In response to the chemical market situation, the Nigerian government has introduced the Oil Industry Act. The bill establishes the laws and regulations of the industry to ensure the effective operation of the petrochemical industry. The Nigerian Petroleum Industry Act has played a certain role in the operation of refineries, chemical production, and environmental protection.

"Four wheel drive" market growth

First, the growing demand for energy has ensured a steady growth in the petrochemical industry. Although many countries are looking for renewable energy technologies, in the short term they cannot meet energy demand. As the use of petrochemicals in sub-Saharan Africa is longer and the price is relatively cheap, the region is still the main source of energy in the world in the short to medium term. Second, since basic chemicals such as olefins and aromatics are mainly derived from crude oil refined by refineries, the new refinery will drive the development of the chemical market in the region. For example, in the Koha Industrial Development Zone, South Africa's state-owned oil and gas company (PetroSA)'s Mthombo project will increase South African crude oil refining capacity. Third, polyolefin products are widely used in many industries in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in South Africa. Therefore, the increase in demand for end products such as polyolefins will also promote the development of the basic chemicals market. Finally, the establishment of a reasonable tax system for the region and the political stability of the entire region will bring more investment to the chemical industry and promote the chemical industry.

The obstacles to the basic chemical market in the region lie in the following aspects: First, the rise in global chemical supply has intensified competition within the industry. Recently, many large-scale oil refineries in the Arab and Mediterranean regions have been upgraded. These refineries are relatively close to the large crude oil reserve base and their production costs are relatively low. This has created a great impact on South African refineries that are still using old technology. Second, the production of basic chemicals is a capital and knowledge-intensive industry, and higher entry barriers limit new market participants from entering the industry. Thirdly, as people’s awareness of environmental protection increases, the original oil refinery in the region must make corresponding improvements in terms of production processes, production standards, and specifications. These will bring high costs because of the chemicals in the area. For companies, they must reconfigure their existing refineries or build new refineries.

Resources have a bright future

Africa has 10% of the world’s proven oil reserves and it is expected that by 2020, African countries’ oil production will account for 20% of the world’s oil. Most of the African crude oils are light and aromatic and are more easily refined and less expensive than European and US crude oils. With the continuous deepening of international cooperation, the degree of oil exploration at sea and on land has gradually deepened, and proven reserves have continued to increase. African oil production has entered a period of rapid growth. Therefore, the petrochemical industry in sub-Saharan Africa has broad prospects for development.

In addition, the abundance of natural gas supplies, the expanding market and the improvement of political stability, these factors attract multinational companies to enter this emerging market, which in turn helps them to become the next high-growth region in the global chemical industry and chemicals in the world. main market.