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The extreme weather in the world cannot stop the upsurge of one aluminum processing project.
The signing of the cooperation memorandum between CLP Investment and Alcoa's US$7.5 billion clean energy and aluminum smelting projects in China;
Chinalco announced that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, it will invest 17 billion yuan in Guiyang to vigorously develop industries such as alumina, electrolytic aluminum, coal, and electricity; at the same time, it will rely closely on Baiyun Aluminum Industrial Park in Guiyang to provide direct supply and continuous rolling of aluminum water. Continuous casting, reduce cost advantages, the development of deep processing of aluminum, the formation of industrial clusters, and strive to promote the transformation of mineral resources on the spot.
Yunnan Metallurgical Group plans to invest 100 billion yuan in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, of which aluminum as one of the three major industries, proposed to continue to accelerate development;
Hongqiao Aluminum passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The fundraising amount was initially set at US$1.5 billion (approximately HK$11.7 billion), becoming the first heavyweight to raise more than 10 billion yuan this year.
Alcoa Group got rid of the big expansion after the debt crisis, and the 7 billion aluminum strip expansion project started;
Aili International Co., Ltd. and Zhenjiang Dingsheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. jointly established a 300-million-dollar technologically advanced aluminum rolling mill to formally establish a foundation in Zhenjiang City, Jiangsu Province.
Nanshan Aluminum will use its self-financed capital of 2.961 billion yuan to build aluminum strip projects in order to realize (1+4) hot rolling capacity;
Lufeng Aluminum foil announced that it will achieve annual production capacity of 1.2 million tons in 2013.
Xingfa Aluminum Group plans to increase its aluminum profile production capacity to 450,000 tons by 2015.
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Some new rolling mills, some of which will add more than 40;
Some newer small extruders have to be launched into larger global extruders.
The aluminum processing industry is setting off a new investment boom.
Seeing these, as the aluminum industry are all excited. Aluminum processing seems to usher in a new period of great development. However, I was reminded of a famous saying: "The water is too fast, so you can't see clearly your face." Development is the hard truth. What we must not forget is scientific development. If we do not fully understand the development law and market risks of the aluminum processing industry, any enthusiastic investment will mean huge risks. In particular, the possible redundant construction and overcapacity can not but arouse our deep thinking.
1. The great development of aluminum processing is inevitably due to many facts and reasons. It is doomed that the market for aluminum processing products in China has great potential for growth.
1. The growth rate of aluminum consumption has been maintained at 1.6 to 2.0 times the GDP growth rate;
2. The huge gap between the per capita consumption and the developed countries, and the gradually narrowing momentum;
3. China's urbanization process 4. China's entry into the high-speed rail era 5. China's large-aircraft project 6. Rapid growth of urban light rails 7. Popularization of domestic cars 8. Aluminum still has the advantage of replacing “copper, steel and other materialsâ€.
Second, the nature and market position of aluminum processing industry Aluminum processing is an intermediate processing process from aluminum water to finished aluminum products. Aluminum processing products are mainly rolled materials (such as plates, belts, foils, etc.), extrusion materials (such as tubes, rods, wires, profiles, etc.) and aluminum castings (such as aluminum wheels). (Aluminum powder etc. is not mentioned here).
The characteristics of the roles in the entire aluminum industry value chain determine its inherent dependence on the upstream and its dependence on the downstream. It is precisely because of the reluctance of this "up and down" status, many industry leaders have proposed the development of the industry chain extending to both ends. The current unanimous view is: Whoever has a perfect coal (water, wind, light), electricity, and aluminum industry chain will win the initiative in the market.
In addition, the status and importance of aluminum processing companies are also dependent on the environment of competition among competitors. Serious overcapacity is a poison for self-descending figures.
An abnormal phenomenon, everyone should know. Once upon a time, the price per ton of 0.14 MM thick air-conditioned plain foil was +5% of aluminum ingot price and +17,000 yuan in cost. And now, the thickness has been reduced to 0.095 MM, and the unit price is 5000 yuan for aluminum ingots. It is a curse that exceeds demand.
Third, repetitive investments in aluminum processing have already emerged, and the white-hot competition is inevitably seen from all existing and new projects, and its market positioning is similar.
Plates and foils are nothing more than aerospace plates, advanced PS plates, cans, alloy plates and foils, automotive plates, brazing foils, container plates, ships, household appliances, aluminum plates, curtain wall plates, decorative plates, electronic aluminum foil, Tetra Pak .
Profiles are nothing more than high-speed rail, light rail, automobiles, ships, electronic appliances, solar frames and brackets, energy-saving profiles and other industrial profiles.
Some of these product areas may be able to meet the production capacity of a large or medium-sized production plant. Some areas with large market usage do not exceed four production capacity, and now supply capacity exceeds actual demand. Every enterprise wants to exert its production capacity as much as possible, maliciously slashing prices, squeezing and arranging unscrupulous competition. Such disorderly competition will inevitably bring great risks to the business operations. Information fighting like Mengniu and Yili, Tencent and 360's commercial fighting will be inevitable in the aluminum processing industry in the future.
Fourth, the project must fully consider the impact of many factors outside the project The success of the project depends not only on the company's own operations, with the further in-depth global integration, the impact of external factors on the company is also growing.
The pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi, foreign "double reverse", national macroeconomic policies, monetary fiscal policy, energy saving and emission reduction, disasters, and extreme weather effects are the nerves of challenger entrepreneurs.
Some people say: The future of the renminbi is the future of the Chinese economy. This sentence may be deeper for aluminum processing companies with export as their main market. The data obtained in July last year showed that if the renminbi appreciates by 3%, that is, most aluminum processing companies are not profitable; if the appreciation is 5%, almost all exporting companies will lose money. The grim fact is that the expectations of different authorities are: This year will rise to between 5.0 and 6.0. Therefore, for those companies that did not consider the renminbi will rise to extreme levels when doing feasibility study reports, they will need to calculate separately.
The impact of foreign “double reactionsâ€: From hubs, profiles to aluminum foil, from the United States, Australia, and Turkey, anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations are one after the other, and the increase in tariffs is staggering. Moreover, this situation is extremely contagious. One country has it and others follow it. It should or should not be that we are losers. We should not be sure that the fact of adding tariffs is actually established. It should not necessarily be lighter. Then, as we all know, anti-dumping investigations must put your bottom of investigation on the ground. Even if you can win, others will steal your business intelligence. The cost makes them clear and how much is your bargaining chip at the bargaining table.
Energy-saving and emission-reduction are always the topics. The entire aluminum industry chain is a high-energy-consuming industry. In recent years, it has been shown that when power supply is in short supply, it has become commonplace for power distribution companies to cut power supply. The scale went up and the loss of electric power was no problem. All of these require serious development of serious consideration.
V. The scale has gone up. There are numerous examples of management, technology research and development, talents, and marketing that should be synchronized at home and abroad for the first time when the entrepreneurial venture succeeds and fails to develop. In addition to the second-stage, third-stage... decision-making mistakes, management can not keep up, R & D strength can not be guaranteed, lack of talent, poor sales channels, etc. are also important factors of the project can not be successful. These must be considered and synchronized at the project stage and must be focused on. Take the large-aircraft project as an example. Everyone knows that China's large-aircraft project is a fragrant oyster, but later on to get a large order, Alcoa is not Chinalco. Enterprises must think that if they have not imported advanced equipment, everything will be fine, and achieving project design goals is a systematic project.
Sixth, to pay more attention to profits, rather than the scale of the root causes of the inconvenience of our companies and entrepreneurs are more or less. Vanity is strong, greed for the ocean, blindly follow the trend, expansion only for the boss. Before the competition for production capacity, top equipment, the few strongest in the world, and China’s front, etc., all are on the scale, and talk about profitability. Whether it is state investment, stock market financing, or corporate self-raising, we all hope that the company can put the improvement of economic efficiency first, while shouldering the social responsibility of sustainable development, earnestly grasp the rare opportunities for development, for the health of the aluminum processing industry Development contributes! 