Analysis of the operation of lithium ion electrolyte industry in China in 2011

Lithium-ion battery short-term demand is difficult to break out

**Statistical data show that due to the impact of the European debt crisis and blood lead incident, the prosperity index of the battery manufacturing industry has been declining since April 2011, especially since the industry sentiment index watershed 100 fell in September. In the cold phase, the battery industry sentiment index in December was only 89.05, which was the second lowest in the light industry industry.

Figure 1: 2011 Battery Industry Prosperity Index

From the production situation, the battery manufacturing industry completed the output value of 564.355 billion yuan from January to December 2011, an increase of 37.5% year-on-year. The price of lead-acid batteries increased by more than 30% in 2011. Specific products is that, when the lead-acid battery production totaled 142.296 million kVA, the cumulative increase of 3.3 percent, prices rose by 30%; alkaline battery production totaled 1.019 billion, a cumulative decline of 15.0% year on year; lithium-ion The cumulative output of batteries was 2.966 billion, with a cumulative increase of 18.2% year-on-year; the cumulative output of primary batteries was 34.27 billion, a cumulative increase of 3.3%. Lithium-ion batteries have become a major bright spot in the battery industry, driven by continued growth in sales of tablets and smartphones, maintaining a steady double-digit growth momentum. There is a certain time difference between the output of lithium-ion batteries and the output of downstream mobile phones, which is generally 3 to 6 months. For example, in April 2011, the growth rate of mobile phone production was low, and after 3 months, the growth rate of lithium-ion battery production began. Bottom back. In the case of no shortage of demand in the field of power vehicles and energy storage, lithium-ion batteries are unlikely to have a spurt growth, and will continue to grow steadily.

Figure 2: Monthly production of lithium-ion batteries in 2011 (100 million)

　　

Figure 3: Monthly growth rate of mobile communication handsets in 2011 (%)

Lithium ion electrolyte production returns to normal growth rate

     The electrolyte is a lithium ion battery of the four key materials (positive electrode, negative electrode, separator, electrolyte) one of a lithium ion battery "blood", play a role in the conduction electrons between the negative electrode of the battery CKS, a lithium ion battery is obtained High voltage, high specific energy and other advantages. The statistical results show that after the rapid growth of lithium ion electrolyte in 2009 and 2010, the normal growth rate was restored in 2011. The first two years of rapid growth was mainly because of the new state-chou (300037.SZ), Cathay Pacific Huarong electrolyte gradually put new capacity; have the price advantage of the electrolyte can achieve import substitution, thus promoting the growth of large-scale production of electrolytic . The growth rate of lithium ion electrolyte in 2011 is consistent with the growth rate of lithium ion batteries.

Figure 4: China's lithium ion electrolyte production (10,000 tons) and growth rate (%) from 2004 to 2011

The statistical results show that the geographical distribution of lithium ion electrolyte production in 2011 is mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Tianjin. The output of these three provinces accounts for 80% of the national total output, which is basically consistent with the geographical distribution of lithium ion battery production in China . The lithium ion electrolyte market has a demand-oriented investment. With the launch of lithium-ion battery investment projects in Henan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Sichuan, etc. , the future regional distribution pattern of lithium-ion electrolyte is bound to advance to the Chinese mainland.

Figure 5: Regional distribution of lithium ion electrolyte production in China

The top five companies producing lithium-ion electrolyte in 2011 were Guotai Huarong, Tianjin Jinniu, Dongguan Shanshan, Xinzhoubang and Guangzhou Tianci. In 2011, domestic domestic lithium-ion battery manufacturing enterprises saw steady growth in output. In order to digest huge new capacity , electrolyte manufacturers turned their focus to Japanese and Korean lithium-ion battery manufacturers. For example, Xinzhou State has developed downstream products such as Samsung and Sony. factory. In addition, many companies are optimistic about the future growth potential of the lithium-ion battery power car market, and lay out the lithium-ion battery related industry chain in advance . Fluoride Fluoride (002407.SZ) use the raised funds public offering of shares, intends to build a total investment of 344 million yuan annual output of 20,000 tons of electrolyte 2,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. At the end of 2013, if more than 20,000 tons of lithium ion electrolyte is produced , it will completely change the supply pattern in China.

Table 1: Top 10 Lithium Ion Electrolyte Capacity in China

Electrolyte prices continued to decline in 2011

The survey results show that in 2011, the price of various electrolyte manufacturers in China fell by 5-10%. Taking the product price of the listed company Xinzhoubang (excluding tax) as an example, the average price of the product has dropped from RMB 80,000/ton in 2006 to RMB 66,000/ton in 2011.

Figure 6: New Zeon Lithium Ion Electrolyte Product Price (excluding tax) for 2006-2011

In recent years, the prices of electrolyte products in China have continued to decline. The main reasons are: (1) The production capacity of local enterprises has been continuously released, and the capacity of lithium-ion electrolytes of Guotai Huarong, Xinzhoubang and Tianjin Jinniu has expanded more than twice. Expand the size of the one hand it makes cost reduction, product prices naturally occurring space; the other hand, production of lithium-ion battery is not explosive growth, the electrolyte oversupply caused by a vicious price competition among enterprises; (2) is lithium hexafluorophosphate The main raw material of lithium ion electrolyte accounts for 60% of the production cost of electrolyte. In the past two years, Chinese companies have broken through the technological blockade of foreign companies, and have greatly improved the technology of synthesizing lithium hexafluorophosphate. The performance and stability of finished products are getting closer to those of Japan, South Korea and Europe and the United States. With the expansion of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate, the cost of purchasing raw materials by electrolyte manufacturers has been greatly reduced.

The degree of localization of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the future will have a significant impact on the price trend of lithium ion electrolyte . According to statistics, China's lithium hexafluorophosphate potential capacity is 7,400 tons / year, the traditional technology of 1 ton of lithium hexafluorophosphate with 8 ~ 10 tons of electrolyte , China's lithium ion electrolyte capacity will reach 60,000 tons in the next three years. Therefore, lithium hexafluorophosphate can basically meet the production requirements of domestic electrolytes. Although the quality of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate has not been fully recognized by many electrolyte manufacturers, with the improvement of technology and optimization of production parameters, the localization of lithium hexafluorophosphate will be greatly improved, and the price will also drop significantly, which means electrolysis. There is still room for further decline in liquid product prices.

Table 2: Capacity of China's major lithium hexafluorophosphate enterprises

Figure 7: China's lithium hexafluorophosphate product price trend (10,000 yuan / ton)

Although lithium hexafluorophosphate, 2011 electrolyte prices fell more than price decline can be due to rising labor costs, energy costs, financial costs and other costs, so that the electrolyte product gross margin also decreased year by year, statistics show that the first half of 2011 Capchem electrolyte The gross profit margin of the product is 26%. At present, the electrolyte is in a reasonable profit range, but with the release of the existing construction capacity and the new capacity of some enterprises, the profitability of the electrolyte products is not optimistic, especially in the case that the power vehicles have not improved.

Figure 8: New Zeon Lithium Ion Electrolyte Product Gross Profit Trend

Future trend outlook

     Lithium-ion electrolyte is a low-margin product in lithium-ion battery materials. The market size is limited in the future, so it has not attracted many companies to expand capacity in this area. Enterprises that entered the early stage can calm down and study technology to improve production efficiency and product quality. Therefore, products such as Cathay Huarong, Tianjin Jinniu, and Xinzhoubang have been recognized by international manufacturers such as Samsung and Sony. Lithium-ion electrolyte has experienced more than ten years of wind and rain from the time of full import to export. It is a gratifying result of the development of lithium-ion industry in China.

However, the core raw material of lithium ion electrolyte in China still needs a large amount of imported lithium hexafluorophosphate. The difference between domestic quality and imported products is a stumbling block for further improvement of lithium ion electrolyte in China . In addition, lithium ion electrolyte for power is used to improve stability and conduct electricity. Sex and safety require vinylene carbonate (VC), ethylene carbonate (VEC), biphenyl and sulfur and boron additives, phosphate flame retardants, fluorine-substituted solvents, resulting in high prices, technical bottlenecks It is used in the field of electric vehicles.

In the future , the competition of lithium-ion electrolyte is more concentrated in the two aspects of lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium ion electrolyte for power. Whoever is the first in these two aspects, who is the winner of lithium-ion electrolyte .