Centralized production facilities for acrylonitrile rose

The price monitoring of business clubs shows that in November, the domestic acrylonitrile market bottomed out and rebounded, and the short-term gains approached 7% in 10 days, far exceeding market expectations. At present, the mainstream domestic manufacturers offer in the vicinity of 7900-8100 yuan / ton, dealers mainstream quotes in the 8200-8500 yuan / ton. Port acrylonitrile mainstream traders in the stock market are in tight supply. Most of them are supply contract customers, and spot mainstream negotiations are near 8,000 yuan/ton.

Business community analyst Wang Wenxuan believes that the reasons for the current round of rising are: First, the acrylonitrile production plant was accidentally stopped and the supply was tightened. In terms of installation, Jilin Petrochemical's 452,000 t/y acrylonitrile plant will carry out a 10-day “window overhaul” of its equipment from October 10th; Sinopec Fushun Branch will produce 92,000 tons of propylene annually due to breakdown of raw material propylene units. The nitrile plant was shut down from October 28 and it has now been restarted; due to power problems, Shanghai Secco's annual capacity of 520,000 tons of acrylonitrile plant was shut down on November 1st and gradually restarted in the near future; factory equipment was frequently parked unexpectedly. , coupled with the previous Ke Luer's 130000 tonne/year production plant that was forced to stop for more than two months due to inventory pressure, it caused the instantaneous transition of acrylonitrile from an oversupply in East China to extreme tension, causing propylene that had fallen into the abyss. The nitrile market regained its vitality and returned to life.

Second, the raw material market is picking up and the cost is good support. In November, the propylene market in the upstream of the acrylonitrile field has picked up. The mainstream offer prices in Shandong are at 4550-4600 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotes in East China are at 4400-4750 yuan/ton. Generally, the supply and demand in the propylene market is relatively balanced, and imports are imported. Gradually digested, and domestic propylene stocks fell to a reasonable level, with little pressure on the supply side. In addition, the rise in downstream acrylonitrile and the increase in the price of propylene on the outside of the market also brought certain positive effects to the market, and the confidence of the industry rebounded.

Wang Wenxuan believes that in the short term, acrylonitrile will maintain the tight volume of goods, the market is still bullish expectations of the market outlook, these positive factors will help acrylonitrile continue to improve. However, the manufacturer's acrylonitrile plant will gradually resume its restart, and the new acrylonitrile production capacity of 260,000 tons in Sorbong is planned to be put into operation in late November. It is expected that the market will return to oversupply in the long run. At the same time, the supply side of the upstream market is expected to increase, and there is still a downside risk on the cost side. In summary, it is expected that the trend of acrylonitrile will show an upward trend and a downward trend before the end of the year. It is expected that the highest point will reach around 8,700-8,900 yuan/ton by the end of November and then slowly fall back to around 8,000-8,100 yuan/ton.